Fitz in Five – August 9, 2023
This is Dan Fitzpatrick with Fitz in Five. Here’s a question I will ask you, is this really a market that you want to be long? Do you want to be looking and saying, Where’s the next level that I should buy, whatever it is? It’s going down, it has gone down too much. Is this really what you want to do right now?
I mentioned this concept to Charles Payne on Monday when I was on his show on Fox Business. And that is, this a time to be lightening up on some of these Mega-Caps, and some of them, just ditching them completely. Let’s just go through them real quick. By the way, spoiler alert, I am not going to tell you to buy anything here.
The Nasdaq ( INDEXNASDAQ: NDX ); the QQQs ( NASDAQ: QQQ ) here are testing the 50-day moving average, so that has got to be a great time to buy. Well, no, it’s not. The 20-day moving average has been holding this, and then it broke that last week and it hasn’t recovered yet.
There is no assurance that we are going to get a rebound here. Maybe, we might, maybe we might get this, let me just take this all the way through here and say, why don’t we make this green? There, now, we are going to get a nice rebound here, and then we are off to victory, right? Well, I don’t think so. Tomorrow we have the CPI number and that will be fake, just like they always are. It is total manipulate data that is always revised later when everybody has forgotten what the original deal was, but maybe we will get this.
So is this the time to be buying the market? Well, let’s look at the big dogs. Are you going to buy Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL )? I was telling people today that this hasn’t even followed my best-case scenario, which really stunk, which is that Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) could, in fact, rally back a little bit, test the 50-day moving average unsuccessfully, and then fall lower. It hasn’t even done that. So Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) no. The weekly chart, no. This is not the time to buy Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ), don’t even ask me, I am not going to answer.
Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ), again, couldn’t even follow my best case scenario, which is a rally back above the 50-day moving average, maybe up a little bit for a day or two but then finally back down, and then that is all she wrote. It couldn’t even do that, and so this is a stock to that, when do I buy Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT )? How about when it is zero? When it gets to zero then that is a pretty low-risk time to buy. Obviously, I’m joking.
But anything above there, I don’t know, this certainly could come down and test the 200, that would be another 8, 9, 10 percent, depending on where you measure from. So this is another stock, and these are the Mega-Caps. These are the ones that are holding up the market, not.
And then, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ), which has been an outstanding stock, has bucked the trend, with respect to the other Mega-Caps. This is still working just fine. But is this a stock that you want to be buying right here, I don’t think so. Oh, well it is going to rebound off the 50. Well, guys, it might not, Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) didn’t, and Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) sure didn’t. And then how about Google ( NASDAQ: GOOGL )? It is still fine but would you buy it here? No, it is holding up just fine but, again, it is not continuing to move higher. Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN ); a nice earnings pop. Well, now we are getting a post-earnings pop drop. So this is coming down.
How about NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ), breaking the 50? This has been doing okay, not great, it was kind of one of those things, where you are looking at it and you are saying, You know, the way the market is going, I think this is okay. But I think one of those wheels is getting kind of wobbly, I can feel it. I can feel it, I think the right front one is getting a little bit wobbly. And then boom, the wheel came off the wagon. They report earnings in 14 days, on the 23rd, so we will see what happens then. But the way this is trading now, do you want to buy it here? No, it’s going lower.
Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ), no, this isn’t going to be the answer to your prayers either. Upstart Holdings ( NASDAQ: UPST ), they’ve got a little AI theme, on the financial side, the lending side, this didn’t work too well. And actually, I looked at the earnings, I didn’t really think they were that bad at all. I thought they were actually a little bit better than some of the market’s expectations. But guess what? The chart disagrees with me, so this dog isn’t going to hunt either. What I am saying is, there aren’t a lot of stocks that you want to be involved with.
On Holding ( NYSE: ONON ); this is one of our active trades that I have kind of been hanging in there with for a while through the ups and downs. This was our entry, right here, we are barely up 3.5 percent on this, but it is better than being down 3.5 percent. Other than On Holding ( NYSE: ONON ), frankly, I can’t think of another stock that I am really amped about buying or holding right here. But I do think you could take a little bit of stock if you are not involved here. I think it is moving higher up into earnings on the 15th.
I like Energy ( NYSEARCA: XLE ), ( NYSEARCA: XOP ), ( NYSEARCA: OIH ), all of these are really good. They are working; they are where I want to be, but I just can’t find good entries. I looked at a bunch of stocks today in our training session. Anyway, there are stocks that are working, we just need to not just find them, you can do that, if you want to know which stocks are working run a search for “new 52-week high”, and bam, by definition it is working.
The real challenge is finding those at the right price to enter. But one thing to keep in mind, with respect to stocks that hit their 52-week high. They have this weird habit of continuing to print 52-week highs. In other words, they have this weird habit of just continuing to move higher. So here’s a little tidbit for you, if you are looking for stocks to buy, run a search for any stock that is within 15 percent of its 52-week high. If you start there you’ve got a list of stocks that can give you some good trading candidates.
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