Is this the bottom? $SPY $QQQ $GLD – March 11, 2025
This is Scott at Scott Trades on Twitter with StockMarketMentor.com and your Chart of the Day. We’re going to take a look at a few index charts to try to answer the question, is this the bottom?
Is the bottom of the market in ( NYSEARCA: SPY ), do we pile in, all-time highs coming next, is this it? And to quickly answer the question, there’s not really any clarity right now. Here we have S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ) under the 200-day moving average after printing a continuous stream of lower highs and lower lows.
No, there’s no real bottom signal right here right now. We did have some mixed headlines today out of Ontario, Canada, and out of the White House about tariffs. But still, no real clarity on the path for trade policy. I think the market is really looking for a clear signal When it comes to trade policy, they’re also looking for clarity when it comes to monetary policy and the path of inflation.
We do have CPI out tomorrow, we might get a little more clarity tomorrow. But the way the market closed today tells me that we’re probably in for more volatility. At one point when we had some headlines, the market did get back to the highs. Unfortunately, near the end of the day if I bring in an hourly chart we saw a bit of a selloff here and a continuation of this hourly downtrend.
These hourly moving averages continue to act as resistance levels that shorts reload at, before taking another leg down. So in my opinion, we’re going to have to break this hourly trend, and start printing some hourly higher highs and hourly higher lows before we can really consider a tradeable bottom being in place.
Now, if you’re looking at this market right now and starting to panic, let me tell you, it’s way too late for that. It’s way too late to panic. In trading, if you’re going to panic you want to panic early. You want to panic way up here when the market broke under this clear upward-sloping trendline and closed under the 50-day moving average.
This cluster here, even if you missed the first day, this was really the time to panic. By the time you get down here, it’s a bit too late. What you should do if you’re an index trader is wait for a potential retest of some of these highs, maybe a retest of the other side of the 50-day moving average. If we bounce and get up there and are unable to make a new high, then that’s probably where you can scale out of any positions that you might be stuck in right now.
But in terms of a bottom, the S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ) is not really looking like a bottom. The QQQs ( NASDAQ: QQQ ), we see another path of lower highs and lower lows, continuing selling, higher than average volume, and the end of the day, the last hour of the day, selling into the close. A 10-minute chart, a big selling into the close. We are up slightly after hours, but again, look at this trend, the trend is really clear.
It’s a downtrend with this black line acting as resistance. And so, until can to get above that black line here, which is a 10 minute 200-period simple moving average. Until we can get above that level, sustain above that level, and give us a trend change on this chart, then we are definitely not going to change the trend on this one or on the daily one. So keep an eye on those short-term time frames, whether it’s the 10-minute, the hourly, the two-hour, or the four-hour, and look for trend charges on those time frames.
If those moves are real it will translate into a trend change here on the daily chart. And that will give you an extra early entry so you can position yourself, so if this does follow through to the upside you’re at least in the trade. If you are going to trade anything when it comes to the major indexes my suggestion is to use the new lows. So if we open up where we are right now, for example, and the market does make a higher high, ideally above 483.00, 484.00, or something like that, then you want to use this low here at 467.00 as your stop loss.
Again, the thesis is that it’s making a higher high and that this is now the established swing low. Those are some strategies for trying to trade this market, trying to trade this market volatility. And while you’re at it, by the way, keep an eye on gold. Dan Fitzpatrick and I, at Stock Market Mentor, were talking about GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) because it is surprisingly strong here. It’s in an uptrend, above all the key moving averages.
How many things can you say that about? Not many, so we have a bit of a cup and handle pattern here on GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ), giving us a high handle. As I said, above all the key moving averages, I’d probably want to set an alert on GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) at around 270.00. And then on GDX ( NYSEARCA: GDX ), you can see I have that pattern drawn out already. Another cup, another handle. I would have an alert on GDX ( NYSEARCA: GDX ) right around 42.40.
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