How to trade tomorrow’s market, and a look at a top performer: TG Therapeutics ($TGTX) – March 10, 2025
Dan Fitzpatrick here at StockMarketMentor.com. We just closed on a really, really not just as ugly day bit on a “fugly” day.
This is the QLD ( NYSEARCA: QLD ), I just bought some of these right into the close, and I’m now a penny up. I bought them at 90.99, now they’re at 91.00. I think I’m actually down a bit. That’s where I bought them and now I’m down 15 cents. The way I look at this, and I want to get to TGTX ( NASDAQ: TGTX ) in just a second, is the way I’m looking at the market. This was a big nasty selloff, let’s go to the QQQs ( NASDAQ: QQQ ) as opposed to the QLDs ( NYSEARCA: QLD ). The volume was pretty heavy here.
If we look at the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ), the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) is pretty high. We’ll compare it to the S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ). The last time the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) was this high, you can see we kind of marked the bottom. One of the things that I’ve seen is, that on the day that the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) ultimately makes a high (we don’t know that until the next day, obviously), but on the day that the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) makes a high. It’s the next day.
When the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) pulls back it’s actually the next day that you get a bottom, a low, and then you get a nice move higher. One thing I told people today in our weekly webinar, which went on for quite a while, in this case, we get these zigzags lower, so it’s not like this marked this massive low, to where we can just expect the indexes to take off. That’s just not what happens, it happened here when the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ) ran up to 65.00, and this was in a day.
This was a big massive, massive move here that marked a tradeable bottom. The likes of which you typically don’t see very often. We’re really not there yet. However, I do look at this kind of move, and if we see any kind of pullback tomorrow in the VIX ( INDEXCBOE: VIX ), I think you’re going to see a nice move higher. I’m tracking the NASDAQ ( INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC ) and the S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ); you can look at the QQQs ( NASDAQ: QQQ ) or the QLDs ( NYSEARCA: QLD ) if you’ve got a little flavor for more action, or the SPYs ( NYSEARCA: SPY ) for the S&P 500 ( INDEXSP: .INX ).
I took just a small position into the close, frankly, because I don’t view the risk of further downside tomorrow as that great. It could happen, which is why I just took a small starter position. What I can envision with any kind of gap down is that we’re not just going to keep going. Any gap down would, I think, be viewed by traders as this is the last of the puking from folks who didn’t sell yesterday and they’re freaking out. So they sell first time in the morning, and then the market starts moving higher.
If that turns out to be the case, then what I’m going to do is (I’m just letting you know my game plan), I will be looking at the 5-minute chart. And then, when or if I see an open bar, where the high is greater than the low on a 5-minute chart, I would add to that position and I would keep a stop just slightly below. In other words, I would add to that position and then, what does the stock have to do, or what does the chart have to do to prove me wrong? Well, it has to go to a new low. So I can keep a pretty tight stop on this trade and still allow myself to participate in the upside if we get an upside. I don’t know.
The big deal today, I almost think this was an excuse to keep selling, was that President Trump, over the weekend in his interview with Maria Bartiromo, said he wouldn’t discount a recession. He almost forecasted a recession in saying, well you know, there’s going to be a transition, and all that. That’s what, in my view, sparked the selloff. Because if you look at the way this traded, this was the close on Friday. This thing gapped down almost a point and a half. Then, for the most part, just kept going, it rallied up just slightly, and then absolutely got slammed.
The way I look at this is, that the market is pricing in what Trump just said, which is, short term we could have a tough time. What the market’s not pricing in today, and I wouldn’t expect it to, this type of stuff happens on headline news, what the market’s not yet pricing in is, what will and should, and is expected to happen in three or four or five months when some of these changes do kick in, and they will.
The things that the administration is doing now will have some benefit. They will have a lot of benefits, but it isn’t going to be tomorrow, and it isn’t going to be next week, and it isn’t going to be next month either. At some point when this selling is done, the smart money, which is raising cash right now, I can tell you that for sure, the smart money is going to come in and say, Okay, now what’s going to happen in the future? Markets always recover, literally, always. That’s why this was an all-time high, down markets always recover.
The rich guys, I can tell you, are calling their money managers saying, Hey man, is it too early to start buying? They’re not saying, is it too late to sell? They’re saying, is it too early to start buying? I don’t know whether it is or not, but I absolutely can tell you with 100 percent certainty, because I know these things, that that is the question that they’re asking. They’re sitting there waiting for an opportunity to buy.
We can predict that, but we can’t predict it with any kind of a timing mechanism. If you just look at the S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ), this is falling off a cliff. This is squirting right out the end of a garden hose from a squeeze that ultimately went the wrong way. This thing had been squeezing, if you just look at the Bollinger Bands right here at their narrowest they were only 2.4 percent wide, so that was a big squeeze. It was looking for a minute like this was going to resolve to the upside.
Now, this is down 8.5 percent. This could easily go down to 5,200.00. I’m not saying that it will, I don’t think it will, I think we’re going to fart around in this area for a while. And then what happens after that? I don’t know, I’ll let you know when that happens, we react, we don’t predict. But if you just look at the way this is trading, in my view frankly, nothing against you and your 401k, I would prefer that the selloff continue.
I tend to get a little impatient, it’s important to be patient but I have to fight that. And you must remember that the price, the Y axis here, is where you make your money. The price goes up, you make money. The price goes down, you lose money. What people forget is that the X axis is time, and time is money.
And so I would prefer, as quickly as possible, for the S&P ( INDEXSP: .INX ) to come down and find wherever the heck that support is so we can start making some money. I don’t want it to be way, way, way, way, way, way, way over here. I’d like to see a V bottom. Do I think we’re going to get that again? I don’t think so, and if we do I’ll let you know, that’s what my job is.
Now, the stock that I wanted to cover was and is TG Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: TGTX ). In our session today one of our members asked about this, is this a good buy right here because it’s a breakout? The first thing you’ve got to realize is, this is moving up in a market that’s moving down. That is such a strong signal, it’s just unbelievable. So yeah, in a really, really horrible market where everything is being sold, if a biotech stock is being bought, that’s a real good indication that it’s likely to go higher.
I think this was just today, I envision the way I can foresee stocks trading. I look at this as a trade template, and this gives me a sense of if I’m going to take action (I didn’t buy any of this stock, I don’t own it), but if I were to buy a stock based on what I’m seeing here, then that’s my thesis for the trade. Then if the stock does something different like that, well, I know I’m wrong and I’ll get out. Then I’ll look for a re-entry or maybe I’ll just move on. But until that happens, this is the way I see the stock trading.
In the next day or two it will probably rest a bit, but this is such a powerful move. This here is institutional buying, this was on earnings, but I believe this was when they reported earnings, I can’t say exactly because I didn’t look it up. The big breakout here was 36.00, so this stock is up, from 36.00 it’s up about 10 percent. It’s a little high to chase, if you do decide to take the stock make sure that you keep a stop; I would put a stop just below today’s intraday low.
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