Here’s your trade on a market leader. Check out Axogen ($AXGN) – March 12, 2025
Dan Fitzpatrick here at StockMarketMentor.com. I want to look at Axogen ( NASDAQ: AXGN ).
Contrary to what so many other stocks in the market are doing right now, like Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN ), Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ), and NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ), there’s a crowd favorite, Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ), that thing really sucks. If we look back at Axogen ( NASDAQ: AXGN ), this has been holding up pretty well, even in this weak market.
What we want to do is, first of all, there’s no shame in not trading at all. As Mark Minervini would say, it’s a hard-penny environment. I would say, you’re spending quarters to make nickels, you’re risking quarters to make nickels. It’s a really tough market environment, but if you’re looking for trades, this is the kind of thing that you want to look at.
You want to find stocks that are working really, really well in relation to the market. That’s what we want to see because the idea is, look, in a really, really bad market there’s a stock that’s doing pretty well. Then you can bet that when the market gets better that stock is going to do better too. I think this thing is a home run.
If we look at this on MarketSurge, you can see that relative strength rating, it’s up right up at the top, it’s crushing it. It’s outperforming all but 2 percent of stocks in the IBD universe, and that’s a big ass universe. In 2025 the earnings estimates are for a 116 percent jump from 2024, so we’re doubling here.
Then 2026, we’re coming off of a big move to another big move. The fundamentals on this are really good. You can see that earnings are picking up, revenues are picking up. The profit margins are right in the mid 70 percents, that really good profit margin. Then if we look here at the weekly chart, you can see that this quarterly earnings line is drifting higher. This is what we want to see.
We want to see the earnings line moving higher in accordance with the stock. So in my view, all systems are go on this thing. What you could do because notice, that the volume is really light here, I won’t say it’s a red flag but it’s a hard yellow one. And so what you’d want to do is, if you like this stock, first of all, I’d wait for a little more movement to the upside to give me the confidence that this 50-day moving average is going to hold.
Let’s say you’re buying it here, you’ve got about an 8 percent risk if you’re going to set your stop below this intraday low of 16.79 or 16.80. So you’re buying it there. You’ve got your stop down here, it’s about 8 percent. So at the very least, you want 8 percent to the upside. You really want about 16 percent to the upside, which would put this up at $21.00, that would be the frame of your trade.
You are taking this risk here and in return for that risk, what you’re looking for is this box to be filled up here. Whether it will be or not, it’s hard to say, but I’ve just defined your risk for you, so I hope this helps.
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