Here’s the long and short take on Nvidia ($NVDA) – January 29, 2024

by MarketMentor
Dan Fitzpatrick at StockMarketMentor.com. I want to look at NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) yet again.

In these videos I really, really try to make them a combination of money-making, which is what it is all about when it gets right down to the bottom line, literally, and also educational. One of the things about this, I think it was a few days ago, actually on the 24th, I’d been talking with members about what could this stock do.

And I sensed that it was certainly going up to 700.00. I had said back here at 500.00, once it broke out, 600.00 was in the bag and that is what happened. Don’t look at me like I’m patting myself on my back because that was not a bold call, and neither is 700.00, by the way.

I’m just looking at the patterns, and I think there are probably about 98 million other people who saw this pattern and said, “Hey, do you know what, 600.00 is probably a pretty good target for this.” There’s nothing unusual about that, but it is a self-perpetuating or self-fulling prophecy. Frankly, that’s what we like to see.

I don’t hear about it much anymore because, with the advent of technology and greater technical analysis, charting skills, and stuff like that, you don’t hear the same idiotic things I used to hear 20 years ago. I would hear all these fundamentalists, many of whom are probably off to some other occupation these days, talk about how technical analysis was stupid.

It was a self-fulling prophecy, you could not tell, I saw one guy, I’m not going to say who it was, that posted 20 different charts, 19 of them were computer-generated random charts and he challenged technicians to pick the real one. Of course, that’s a really stupid challenge. Anybody who took him up on that would be equally stupid. Because, frankly, charts, for the most part, are random.

Every once in a while, you find one that’s in a really good trend, and this would be one of them. I get questions every week from members saying, “What do you think about this stock? What do you think about that stock?” And 90 percent of them I would be shrugging my shoulders saying, “I don’t know, it could go up, it could go down. It might go sideways but it’s one of the three.

When you are looking at charts you are going to see random activity. But when you see one that’s not, that’s the one that you trade. By the way, there is a case to be made, albeit, a fairly weak one, that you could even trade random charts, as long as you can identify what support and resistance are. Where that falls down is, that support and resistance aren’t these magical numbers.

They are created by the activities or actions of market participants. That’s when psychology and money management come into play, so charts are a self-fulling prophecy. But as long as you know what the prophecy is, you’re going to make money on those. And NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is one of those.

If you wanted to measure the move, with respect to dollars, it would be a $100.00 move here in the base. And so, it breaks out, you move it up, and lo and behold, it’s $100.00 to 601.00, not a big deal. On the other hand, if you are looking from 400.00 to 500.00, on a percentage basis it’s, guess what, 25 percent. This is just the goofy stuff that some technicians engage in, I would be one of them.

If you want to look at it from a percentage basis, it’s about where it is right now, about 25 percent at 630.00. What I’m suggesting is that the stock will keep going. We’ve got AMD ( NASDAQ: AMD ) that reports earnings, I know Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) does, but basically, AMD ( NASDAQ: AMD ) and I think a couple of others, Qualcomm ( NASDAQ: QCOM ), report earnings this week.

NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is kind of the biggest dog on the porch. It almost doesn’t matter what AMD ( NASDAQ: AMD ) says or what Qualcomm ( NASDAQ: QCOM ) says, relative to their business. Because NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is the largest cap, it is the one that has great fundamentalists and a great chart pattern.

AMD ( NASDAQ: AMD ) is a little bit overbought, but if you look at NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) you will see that this came out of a really, really nice base. I suspect that this stock is going to keep going. I’ve got a fairly big position in it, some calls, also some stock, and some short puts. So I’ve got like, triple my fun here on the weekly chart.

My suggestion would be, if you’re long, stay long, don’t get shaken out. Don’t let this kind of stuff shake you out. It’s back and forth, up and down. Look at the 8-day exponential moving average, that’s the little thin blue line here. If you look at the 8-day moving average here, this thing hasn’t even been tested, not since before the breakout so you can use this as your reference for the trend. As long as this is not even tested, then there’s seriously no reason to be selling the stock unless you are feeling guilty about making too much money.

One other thing here, this Tuttle Capital Management, I don’t know who these guys are, I’m sure they’re wonderful people. They started this Inverse Cramer ETF and you can see, talk about Inverse Cramer ETF, I wish they had an Inverse, Inverse Cramer ETF because this thing absolutely blew chunks.

Now, here’s the thing, I have a little pet peeve about this, I contribute to Carmer, but not as often as I used to, he has kind of moved on to other people, which is totally fine with me. I will always do anything for Jim if he asks because he’s the guy that gave me my start. If it wasn’t for him I don’t know what I’d be doing but I wouldn’t be doing this, and I love doing this. This kind of stuff gets my attention.

This closed down today, I forget what this Buffoon gave as a reason, I guess people just weren’t interested in it, or whatever. I don’t think it was that, first of all, they make fees. They created this and he created the Inverse ARKK Fund or ETF against Cathie Wood and that’s done better. However, every ETF, and every stock, every chart stands on its own.

The point is when you’ve got a point to prove, and I Tweeted an exchange back and forth with this idiot, and he said, “I was just trying to prove how stupid it is to follow people on TV and stuff like that.: And I’m going, “You don’t have to prove that. Everybody knows it’s stupid to just follow people on TV. You’ve got to know what you’re doing, rather than just buy, buy, buy.”

The question that I have on this, and the last thing I want is to have an answer from this guy, but how exactly do you choose what stocks to short? Or which trade of Cramer’s to take the other side of? And this is why I’m asking, because this guy, I’m talking about Cramer, he’ll cover 30 stocks in a show. So which do you decide you’re going to take the other side of, which trade? Is it just trades that Cramer features? And what happens if he changes his mind?

This guy actually said that they’d been short the Mega Caps for the last year or so. Like Cramer was supposed to be short the Mega Caps? I can tell you for a fact that that’s not true because he featured my calls on NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) several times, and Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) as well. I don’t know about the others, I think I even fed him Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) at one point or another.

The point is, I’m not defending Jim. Jim’s a big boy, he can do his own stuff. He’s been wrong about a lot of stuff, and he’s been right about a lot of stuff, welcome to media trading. But what I am saying is, have a reason why you are trading a stock. If it’s some kind of emotional thing to prove a point, that kind of thing, go into politics and prove your point that way. But when it comes to money, just focus on the charts, not on anything else.

You can look at the fundamentals to understand the trades and all that. That’s totally fine if you get what the company’s doing. But when you are looking at a stock like this, you have to recognize the breakout. You have to recognize the strong trend. And you have to recognize that this thing is at least going to 700.00 now. My bet is 900.00 shortly thereafter. However, before I get out ahead of my skis, why don’t we just go for 700.00 first, okay?

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