Here’s my take on the market, a couple of stocks and what you should be doing now – October 9, 2023
This is Dan Fitzpatrick with FITZ IN FIVE. I want to look at the market today ( NYSEARCA: SPY ) and then we will get to CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ: CRWD ).
You would have assumed, given what has happened over in the Middle East, that stocks would be really, really in the tank. We did get a teeny tiny gap down this morning and then, virtually, immediately, we came back up. A little test, oh, we’ve got to sell them, and that didn’t work out.
What we are seeing here is just a continuation of Friday’s move, as if nothing happened in the Middle East. Now, we have had something happen significantly in the Middle East, and yes, they are all terrorists, there, I said it. It was a horrible, horrible thing that is ongoing, and geopolitically it changes the planet, in my view, for the foreseeable future, and I can see a long way into the future.
But here’s the deal, the market doesn’t care about it. You don’t give a rip about what I think, I don’t give a rip what you think, I really don’t, as far as all this global stuff, so let’s just stick with the market.
What we’ve got here is a really nice 2-day move, we got a really nice move off the bottom here ( NYSEARCA: SPY ). This is just the kind of action that you want to see. Now, we are running up into the 50-day moving average, right up here. And so you could say, Well, that’s where this is going to end.
That’s what I would say, but I will put it a different way. I will say this has a high likelihood of being resistance. It is like this would probably be where sellers would come into the market, right up there. So from a technical perspective, I look at this as the potential reward from being long right here. If we are just talking about the SPY ( NYSEARCA: SPY ), that’s 2 percent.
However, if it takes a few days for it to get up there, then it is even less than 2 percent. So my point is, you are either way late in buying the rebound or you are pretty early in buying the breakout. Because we don’t have anything that has broken out yet. We just have a zig-zag downward. So with all of that said, I am not trying to call a direction in the market, I am saying that right now it’s advantage bulls.
When you see the S&P ( NYSEARCA: SPY ) doing this. When you see the percentage of stocks ( T2108 ) above their 40-day moving average, going up almost 21 percent just today. And if you are looking at this from the bottom, which was last Wednesday, this percentage is ramped up by almost 100 percent.
The percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving average, between last Wednesday and right now, has doubled. This is actually what happens to this is, in these times of volatility, as you can see, it’s what happens. But guess what? It is happening now.
So my sense would be, you want to be long the market. We’re long Meta ( NASDAQ: META ), 2 days here, it’s bumping up against 320.00, but it is having a hard time getting above there. It may rest a bit, it wouldn’t break my heart if it did. CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ: CRWD ) is another one, where it is similar to Meta ( NASDAQ: META ), though, in a lot of ways, not really.
You will see this, every so often, this is just a little trading tip for you, it is a method that I use to keep me from doing stupid stuff. We got long CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ: CRWD ), and on October 6th we took it at 171.25. So today I am looking at this thing and it is just as strong as death. It runs up here, stays there, stays there.
And I am thinking to myself, I think I have got to buy some more. I want to buy some more right here. And I wrote it down, (I didn’t buy more) but Impulse, 182.81 on October 9. And my point was, at $182.81 I had the urge to buy more. And rather than doing so, because I feel like this is poised to pull back from here. Rather than doing so, I wrote this down.
I scratched my itch, and now that I have this on the chart as opposed to in my account with this entry, I can sit here and watch. And then in a week or so, I will look at this and say, Okay, was I right in buying the stock? Or was I right in choosing not to buy the stock and instead, just putting a note on my chart?
If you do stuff like this, it will keep you from doing things that you really know you shouldn’t do. But you do it anyway because you’ve got that gambling Jones. So try this type of thing, and see if it works for you in your trading, like it does for me, in mine.
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