Can $GLD finally get going? Here’s Scott’s take! – January 25, 2022

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GLD DBC XLE CF GDX 

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This is Scott with your Chart of the Day. I want to take a look at the Gold chart here, this is the Gold SPDR ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) because I think that this might have a chance to get going, and I will tell you why; because commodities are leading in this market.

If we look at the DBC ( NYSEARCA: DBC ), this is the commodity tracking ETF. You can see, commodities are really close to new highs here. And if you saw the market today maybe you noticed that XLE ( NYSEARCA: XLE ) Energy stocks are racing. A nice big jump here on heavier than average volume.

Some agriculture stocks are also catching a bid, like CF ( NYSE: CF ). A really big move off of the 50-day moving average, and again, look at that volume. Commodities are where you really want to be, in my opinion, in this market.

I am taking a look at the GLD SPDR ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) here. If I zoom out you can see a pretty clear level of resistance starting from this real breakdown area in August-September, up 20.20, so a clear level of resistance. Can’t get above, can’t get above, can’t get above, can’t get above, and can’t get above. But since October you can see that I have pointed out some pretty noticeable higher lows here and a retest of this resistance zone.

Now, this is really the first time where we have had sequential higher lows after a little bit of a retest and another test. Because as you can see here, we had a retest, breakdown, retest, breakdown, retest, breakdown, but this time the breakdown was at a higher level. I am also attracted to the Gold SPDR ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) as opposed to the Gold Miners ( NYSEARCA: GDX ).

As you can see, GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) here is above all the major moving averages. Where, if I go to GDX ( NYSEARCA: GDX ) it is still getting slammed right at that 200-day moving average, that’s the blue line here. So while this may also start to catch a bid, you can kind of draw the same pattern here, and just now we are just kind of starting to get a little series of higher lows.

But again, that 200-day moving average is really kind of acting as a ceiling. I just want to have an alert on that moving average maybe around that level. I will take a look at it when it gets above the 200-day moving average and can change the trend.

In the meantime, I have a small position right here in GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) and I want to see it get above and stay above this downward-sloping trendline. And if it can do that, that could be a definite change in character for Gold as a sector and a commodity to trade. Because as many gold bugs know this has been just a nightmare scenario.

I see a lot of gold bugs complaining about the volatility of Bitcoin but I will tell you, this is also quite painful and has been a painful trade. I do think that it does have a chance to get going, maybe it will do it tomorrow leading up to whatever Jerome Powell says out of the Federal Reserve, we will have to see. But GLD ( NYSEARCA: GLD ) is definitely something that I want to keep an eye on going into tomorrow, and I think it might make sense to add it to your watch list too.

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