Here’s your trade on the bitcoin bubble – November 15, 2024
Dan Fitzpatrick here at StockMarketMentor.com. I’m looking at Bitcoin here as is everybody else. I’ll tell you why with respect to equities in just a second, but trading is trading.
Bitcoin has been on a tear here, and there are a lot of reasons for that. If you look at this, this looks like it’s gone up way too much. You can’t buy it up here, it’s up too high. It certainly is higher than it was a week ago, which was higher than it was two weeks ago, etcetera, etcetera, you could see the move.
This isn’t the chart that moves me, this one does because I’ve seen this type of thing before I call this a squirter. We’re just in this consolidation pattern here, it’s a squeeze. And then what happens is, at some point the stock, in this case, the Bitcoin, whatever, the Crypto, it just squirts out the top on heavy volume, and this is a weekly chart.
Now, we’ve seen this back here with this, we’ve seen it here as well. So this is a common thing that happens. We can look at NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) and you see the same type of thing. It had a little false start back here, this is a weekly chart, but you can see where this ran up to the upside after a squirt. It pauses right here and it goes quite a bit, it moves really, really fast.
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ) has done the same thing. It’s quite a bit more volatile when you think about it. The stock will go into hibernation, have a little settling out period, and then boom, run higher, so you’ll see this as a pretty common thing. But what you really have to understand is, that this is a move that’s going to continue, this is not too high.
We have a pretty significant stake in Bitcoin, I’ll put it that way. But I’m looking at this and this is not high, 110, 140, 180 Maybe 180 will be high but when you look at this just on a percentage basis, it doesn’t have to move that many percent to get above 100,000, which will be a key level. You will probably see a little bit of a pause there just because it’s 100,000.
If this stock pushes through, my suspicion is that it will for some real structural reasons. It’s not just all of us rubes out there buying into a Ponzi scheme and it’s worthless and all that stuff. When was the last time Jeff Bezos ever sent you a Christmas card? Or Bill Gates back when he wasn’t raping the world with his farmland and all that other stuff.
The bottom line is, what’s a share of Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) stock worth to you? Are you going to value it just on the little dividend that you get paid? Or are you going to value it in some other way? The way you value stocks is, what are people willing to pay for it? Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ), do you want to know what the fair value is? The fair value is this right here, $421.00, wherever it’s trading right at this moment. That’s the fair value of Microsoft ( NASDAQ: MSFT ).
With Bitcoin, the fair value of Bitcoin right now is $91,314.00. So how are you going to trade this thing? I’m looking at MSTX ( NASDAQ: MSTX ) here, the daily chart, it’s a new ETF, and it’s double your fun on MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ). I like the way this is trading. It doesn’t trade quite with Bitcoin, though as you guys know, nobody cares about their enterprise software business anymore. It’s more like, how many Bitcoin is Michael Saylor buying?
I like MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ) for the long haul. But I will take trading MSTX ( NASDAQ: MSTX ) any day of the week. It’s really volatile, you’ve got to trade it on an intraday basis. If you know how to trade this on an intraday basis, a lot of people have taken my 59-Minute Trader course just recently, so you know what to do on this.
This has a lot of money packed in there for people that really truly understand what they’re doing. Literally, as I see this now, I can see this moving higher just by the way this has been trading the last couple of days on a 15-minute chart. You can see this on the hourly chart as well. This is trading sideways with an upward bias. So guess what, that’s what I’d be looking for on Monday to be trading this to the upside.
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