Are you bullish or bearish on Tesla ($TSLA)? Well, the bull and the bear might both be right — the only distinction is timing. (May 24, 2021)
TSLA
We are looking at Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) today. First of all, true confessions, over at Option Market Mentor, I put on a bear put debit spread on Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) on Friday. My theory was, we don’t see this kind of move today, this goes out to July so this wasn’t like a quick, I want to trade and make sure it’s down on Monday, I didn’t know. When I am not real sure I will extend out a little bit. If I really see a big move coming, why by 50 or 60 days when you can buy 4? It’s a lot cheaper and then you make money on a big move, as long as you are right.
I wasn’t really sure which way Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) was going but I was looking at a few things here. First of all, a declining 50-day moving average, that means something. Sorry about all of these lines, I’ve drawn those for different reasons, one of which was this, when I am drawing this stuff up here this was when the stock was back here and my question was, what do we need to think the stock is going to go higher? And so I started drawing these lines and space and said it really needs to be doing this and I need to see it keep continuing to go up. Well, it did the opposite so that’s a bad sign. Now it has continued to go below the 200-day moving average and then now it is back above it today. This is one day, 4.4 percent, that’s a big move and I am not discounting it.
By the way, my bear put debit spread; very speculative. I mentioned that to our members, guys when you are betting against Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) you are kind of betting against one of the biggest showmen around who could come out and say, I’ve discovered the cure for cancer and it’s free for every Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) that you buy with Ethereum. You just never know with this guy, and so it’s always speculative when you are making a downside bet. The other alternative would be, I could see this stock coming up to test, even, the 50-day moving average. And so high is that? Well, it’s up to 650.00, but if it does that it doesn’t negate the downtrend. It would still be a series of lower lows and lower highs.
Here’s my point on this, don’t be a Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) fan. Don’t be a bear, don’t be a bull. Just look at Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ), make your assessment of what the stock is doing and then act accordingly. As I look at the weekly chart here I see a stock that is doing this, that’s drifting lower. Even this last low here is actually a bit lower than the previous low. There is nothing really to like about this chart. And so if you are watching this and you are listening and you are saying, Dan, you don’t know what you are talking about. Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) this and that and the other thing.
Look, I get it, I am just looking at the chart. Nobody is paying me to be some stupid fan for somebody and say, oh, this guy is great. This lady is perfect. Oh my gosh, you’ve got to just follow her. Follow yourself, that’s what really matters. You have got to learn the lessons of the market. Learn the lessons that your own trading behaviors are teaching you and then become a better trader. I can’t make you better, nobody can make you better. Only you can make you better.
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