Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE)

Strategy Session November 15th, 2018

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November 15th, 2018
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September 23rd, 2016
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July 25th, 2016
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LITE Weekly Chart

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  • spmeyers: Short candidates: I did a scan Thursday for NYSE stocks that broke below the lower bollinger band -- several dozen showed up, most of them with downsloping 200-day and 50-day, and price below those lines. Quite a few are failing after a rebound to the 50-day or so. I'm working off 1-year daily charts. A few I started that still have room to fall are $CDEV, $LITE, $MDRX, $SPB, $CLB, $CX. I'm keeping stops fairly loose. Also $ECA
  • debeers: $LITE/$QRVO/$SWKS-All suppliers s/b down between 5-7% on Thursday.
  • rachel: ...
    $LITE – oversold rebound...rubber band snapback. This is what it looks like over the next few days.
    $UBNT – noted that a breakout above $112.38 would be an aggressive power move buy. Volume is good. This is aggressive.
    $FNSR – t ...
  • BocaRick: $Lite 7% bounce, now below 40, $Roku minor bounce,
  • Robert1965: @BocaRick $Lite Did you trade it
  • chanlizhang: $LITE is there more upside in this rebound ?
  • Robert1965: @chanlizhang $LITE I missed it If I got 38.25 or lower I take some off the table now 40.30
  • chanlizhang: @Robert1965 $LITE thank you Robert. I was thinking If I could try a small entry at 39.90
  • BocaRick: @Robert1965 $Lite just a short 15 minute trade, sold too soon.
  • 86944T: @chanlizhang $LITE I have already been in it twice today. Buy at VWAP and sell when it goes up a buck. Probably have to watch it all day long. Sellers keep coming in when it goes up.
  • Robert1965: $LITE is anyone looking to Short if falls under 40
  • 86944T: @Robert1965 $LITE. Back at VWAP. Will it bounce again or go down?
  • DAN: $LITE -- this might be your 59 minute trade today gang. Down to $35 in pre-market, and now up to $41.61. Dan
  • tjv821: @DAN $LITE can u play the 59 min trader with options if so whats the best way??
  • DAN: @tjv821 $LITE bid/ask spreads are pretty wide, so that's a problem. You want liquid options. Selling OTM puts is my preferred method, but the options are a bit thin for that.
  • mlgold99: @DAN $LITE So, premarket high was $42.80 thus far. Do we wait for it to break above that before jumping in or do we wait to see where it settles premarket, use that as a stop and wait for the stock to move higher above....? before jumping in? Thanks
  • DAN: @mlgold99 $LITE Stop location is impossible to determine in advance because you just don't know how the stock will trade. But I would suggest looking at $42.80 as "Resistance", and a move above there is a buy signal. I'll post in the forum as the trade unfolds.
  • mlgold99: @DAN $LITE Thank you!
  • DAN: @DAN $LITE Still selling. Nothing to do here.
  • DAN: @DAN $LITE I would avoid this stock unless/until it moves above $44.
  • CraigReynolds: @DAN $LITE If it reverses, would 45 be entry?
  • CraigReynolds: @CraigReynolds $LITE Okay 44
  • DAN: @CraigReynolds $LITE I'd suggest setting an alert at $44 and then just ignoring the stock until that alert is hit. Don't fixate on it...at least that' would be my approach. If it hits 45, sure...it'll go higher.
  • DAN: @DAN $LITE Imagine if you bought at the open just because the stock had gapped down so much. You're still holding it, with a 10+% loss and hoping for a turnaround. Always wait for the right setup and trigger. Spotting a setup doesn't entitle you to money. It just prompts you to watch the stock. I've moved on. Maybe it'll work this afternoon, or maybe tomorrow. But there was just no trade today, and it's not really worth the time to keep monitoring it. Just set the alert and forget about it. 8-)
  • kus123: @DAN $LITE Thank you for pointing out.
  • DAN: @kus123 $LITE For relatively inexperienced traders, there is a fine line between trading the open and gambling. As you gain experience, you will learn the difference. But for newer traders, learning a few methods of daytrading is like getting a new toy. You just want to play with it all the time. But if you continually lose money, you'll ultimately throw the toy away. The toy was fine -- you just weren't playing with it the right way.
  • issues: Why the big drop in $ABMD? Cramer did a nice piece on it last week. ABMD looks appetizing at say $320! Are the lights going out? $LITE is down severely but it's competitor $CIEN is holding steady. We hold $CIEN.
  • shoredriver: @issues $ABMD $LITE $CIEN ....who is this we you always reference?.......
  • issues: @shoredriver $ABMD $LITE $CIEN We are a couple. Just a married couple. Not a mutual fund. Just a happily married couple! Thanks for asking. (Our 28th anniversary was in Sept.)
  • shoredriver: @issues $ABMD $LITE $CIEN Funny, there are lots of married folks of all persuasions in the forum that are trading joint, spousal IRA's, childrens funds etc and nobody uses the collective we....whatever.......
  • rachel: ...
    COTD: $LITE – guided lower. This hurts $AAPL too. Provides 3d sensing lasers for facial ID. In all premium models. So it is a leading indicator for Apple. Cutting 40% to revenues going into Apple. A 21 million unit shortfall. They already ...
  • traderbren: $LITE - got pushed down to the 200d very quickly. NP but my 200d alert hit. Just the nature of this squishy market.
  • bsafriet: @traderbren $LITE Did you see any news around 12:00 that explains the sudden drop. I got nothing. Shorts?
  • bsafriet: $LITE $OCLR Does anyone have any news or other info why $LITE $OCLR tanked at noon today. I’ve got nothing.
  • traderbren: @bsafriet $LITE - nope, didn't find any news for the drop. Could simply be an institution deciding to lighten up and shovel it out the back door. Seems to have regained the 200d, but volume is running higher than average. Stay way. Maybe news will come out tomorrow of a downgrade, or other; as this smacks of someone offloading. Set some alerts up the flag pole so you will be drawn back if it bounces back.
  • issues: @bsafriet $LITE $OCLR Competitor of $LITE is $CIEN. We are still holding CIEN.
  • champ: @bsafriet $LITE $OCLR ---- $AUKUF....this Austrian chip maker reported earnings, causing sensing stocks to drop.
  • champ: $LITE still holding around this $62 $$$ level and they are at a #Optical conference today and will be at another one on Wednesday 9/26, this one is a #Automotive conference.
  • issues: @champ $LITE #Optical #Automotive I bought $CIEN instead of $LITE.
  • champ: @issues $LITE $CIEN #Optical #Automotive --- Yes, we talked about that before and my trade is only for 1 or 2 more days and I posted about that also. #Good Luck!
  • justinp: $LITE Moving out of recent congestion. Defined risk.
  • champ: $LITE @ $62 ....Why is this moving-up..... because of News and they will be at another conference on Monday 9/24 (Optical) and again on Wednesday 9/26 (Automotive)..take a look...and they were just at a conference on 9/18 (Auto-Sens)....the bottom line is...the positive #News-Flow should continue, I don't know why it would stop.
  • champ: @Robert1965 ---- $TNDM --- $LITE --- $BJ...#Day-3 moving up because $DJI is also #Day-3....but look at $TNDM and $LITE....see posts....if trading pick-out the names that will give up the most upside and I like $BJ...but I like the reasons on the other better...just saying and I'm trailing but I'm giving these a little room because of the dates, that I posted about on both.
  • issues: @champ $TNDM (I added a little) $BJ *added yesterday $LITE Yes I see the BO on LITE. The light just went off in my head. But look at the competition CIEN. I don't have either but I think the chart on $CIEN looks better since it didn't have that steep sell off. Thank you!
  • Robert1965: @champ $TNDM $LITE $BJ $DJI #Day-3 #Day-3 Thanks
  • issues: @justinp $LITE Bought $CIEN since it's got a better chart and better IBD ratings! Accumulation is B, while LITE is C-
  • champ: @issues $TNDM $BJ $LITE $CIEN --- Thanks, I took a look. For me, $LITE is a $Bounce-Trade on News, that it is a supplier iPhone X 3D sensing provider and has room and I posted my reasons why I like the trade....and on $CIEN, know question the chart l ...
  • champ: @issues $LITE $CIEN --- Maybe you talking about a longer time frame, what are you talking about...?...you have to post your time frame and have a plan ....#remember what I'm taking about, I'm talking about a 4-5 day bounce trade..#Only and as of righ ...
  • bRobert: $CIEN pop on earnings Target acquired . Look for pin action in optical. eg $ACIA $LITE $AAOI
  • bRobert: $ACIA Adding on pb/bounces LONG term hold. Look at weekly. I expect to see that nice round base to continue climbing. These are momentum stocks and can heat up very quickly as we are starting to see eg $LITE Target 1 $55
  • bRobert: $LITE Target met + $68 Stops raised
  • alwayslearning: @bRobert $LITE $ACIA $AAOI thanks for this note...took $AAOI...working very nice
  • bRobert: $LITE . add on pb/bounces Target $68+ . $ACIA WEEKLY flag . Target $50 . $AAOI . flag . $50 target
  • bsafriet: $LITE @64.73, E/R Nov 7, est. PT $75.
  • bsafriet: @bsafriet $LITE I buy, somebody dumps approx 7000 shs, price back to R2, $64.40
  • bRobert: $LITE Target move $68 on breakout. Add on dips/bounce
  • bRobert: $LITE . Long weekly consolidation . Reversal target $68 on daily
  • champ: @bRobert $LITE ---- I posted entry at $51.10....at the end of July....on this bounce trade.
  • bRobert: $LITE doing some heavy lifting. >50d Other opticals are perky $IIVI $ACIA $FNSR $VG
  • champ: $LITE @ $54.70 ...Low risk entry was this morning, for those who were ready.... @ 51.10...alway need to be ready because all the others are always ready.
  • champ: @Robert1965 $LGIH --- This will continue to zig-zag...not much you can do. This is a holding stock....but many have #trading-positions-also and they trade this stock ...#around-their-core-position....all stocks work the same. Just have to hold ...to ...
  • bRobert: $LITE Watching for move above $61 Sustained breakout
  • bRobert: @phgruver $AAOI Just in a trading range right now. Nothing wrong. Lot of people anxious for this to break out. Not ready yet. $LITE $ACIA perky charts.
  • champ: $PLCE $OSB $AAOI $LGIH $LITE .....A few low volume stocks.... that appear to be working....
  • bRobert: $LITE $AAOI Long . Will add with breakout confirmation pullback/bounce $ACIA Keep an eye on.
  • bRobert: $LITE testing $60
  • champ: $LITE ....new upgrade, with a target of $75...by Cascend Securities, is why the stock is moving.... RHRN...I added.
  • bRobert: $AAOI $LITE $ACIA . Watching for bullish follow through in several set ups. Low risk/high reward
  • mrmike: @bRobert $AAOI $LITE $ACIA Also watching $AAOI. What price are you looking to get in at?
  • mrmike: @bRobert $AAOI $LITE $ACIA Stop around 44.25 I'm in @47.50
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE I like the chart because of all the positives. But will wait until it proves itself. Thanks for your analysis. Appreciated.
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI There are multiple bullish patterns in play in several time frames. Weekly started with a small inv h&s pattern (25 head $35 neckline) that completed to $45 . Now a larger one with neckline around $50. >$50 . trigger pr ...
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE See targets at $56, $65 and $75. (round numbers)
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI $ACIA $LITE that's not a bad play. You don't have to be early. If the move is real, it will have legs and it will be easy to jump aboard. You don't have to catch the whole move to be successful. Arriving a little later and leaving a little early from the party catches the meat of the trade.
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE I don't pick bottoms and don't call tops. You are so right in going for the fat middle.
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE Guess I should have said "intermediate" targets. I will let the chart and price action dictate my moves.
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI $ACIA $LITE Price action is the only truth. Everything else is theory and perhaps good cocktail party conversation. More lucrative being an experimental physicist than a theoretical one . The charts are the studies that prove the theory.
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI $ACIA $LITE My wife gets angry if I look at too many tops and bottoms ;)
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE You might tell her that when you stop looking is when she should worry. My husband loved women but always went home with me.
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI $ACIA $LITE She gets angry when I look at too many charts. Starts to feel neglected.
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE That's twice you said she gets angry. Take her to her favorite restaurant. Give her a couple of dozen red roses and a box of her favorite chocolates. Works every time. And....most of all tell her you love her EVERY DAY.
  • bRobert: @gwenzee $AAOI $ACIA $LITE We have a very good relationship. Most important lesson ...I'd rather be happy than right.
  • gwenzee: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE Good attitude.
  • tigerjohn8: @bRobert $AAOI $ACIA $LITE I can't even get away with looking at head and shoulders
  • bRobert: @tigerjohn8 $AAOI $ACIA $LITE That can mark the top in the relationship and your neckline cut. ;) . Don't go short. Better to be happy than right. Honey, I don't know what I was thinking.
  • champ: $LITE $59 ---- #New-Spec-position....the U..S just approved that $LITE can start selling again to... #China's-ZTE. The US Department of Commerce, just made it official...you can see the drop today, off HOD. ZTE is the second largest telecommunication ...
  • bRobert: @champ $LITE #New-Spec-position #China #guessing #new-News Nice little squeeze set up. Low risk
  • Spotdog: $LITE starting to pokes it's head up
  • Gary: ...
    $LITE – Very erratic. Support down at $65. But where is the trend?
    $MZOR – trading rebound with stop on this hammer.
    $MOMO – nothing compelling here. Top is $40
    $HAL – Neither HAL/HES are worth owning here.
  • BocaRick: $LITE to buy $OCLR, oclr up 23%, first M&A in opticals?
  • indigo1948: @BocaRick $LITE $OCLR - made my day being on vacation in Arizona as I have had a full position and have been watching it rise steadily.
  • Junior1: @BocaRick $LITE Shorted at 9:55 (looked weak, below VWAP), covered at 10:15 (Ooops, wrong, went clearly above VWAP)... small nick. Very glad I covered when I did!
  • Samik: @DAN Would like to have your views on $SINA $WB $LITE. They seem to be on an upward trajectory, especially $ LITE which has been on the downside but suddenly reversed since last few days. Are these worth picking up now ?
  • traderbren: $LITE -- keeps legging higher...although keep in mind that its day 3.
  • rachel: ...
    17. $LITE: “Dan, do you think $LITE will have better earnings this time around and lift the stock higher? Still holding my position, although the entry is below what it is trading for now. Can't figure out where to put my stop as it is so sp ...
  • champ: $LITE ....could be time....?
  • champ: $LITE @ $57 ---- I have been stopped out of this stock.. 3 times right around entry, maybe today will be the 4th time.
  • champ: $LITE ---- Back in this morning...the low was $57.05....I'm still trying to get a positions that holds....stop right around entry ...again.
  • bsafriet: @champ $LITE stopped out as well this morning. Keeping on my watchlist for another entry try as well.
  • champ: $LITE @ $56.75 now and is still dropping ....stop out again at entry....back watching.
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Stock Price $USD 46.32
Change -7.73%
Volume 4,163,880

Lumentum Holdings Inc is engaged in providing optical & photonic products addressing end markets including data communications & telecommunications networking & industrial & commercial lasers for manufacturing, inspection & life-science applications.

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