Some Random Thoughts on Facebook (FB)
Random thoughts on facebook (FB).1. Thanks to GM. If GM hadn’t announced that they were pulling their ads, the hype surrounding this stock would have reached deafening proportions and more investors would have piled in. Ultimately, the flaw in the business model (see GRPN) would have been exposed and the stock would still have fallen to where it will ultimately go (single digits), but the carnage would have been worse than it already is. Soooo…thanks GM!
2. The creativity of commentators in this forum in describing facebook is impressive. “faceplant”. “fleecebook” and “you got ‘Zucked'” are three favorites. (OK, the last one is mine…but the first two are pretty funny)
3. I laugh at the raving fans who are straining to equate Mark Zuckerberg with Steve Jobs or various other “visionaries”. In response to a question of how he knows what people will want next, Steve Jobs responded: “Because I tell them what they will need.” Jobs was a visionary. But just because some 28 year old kid with a hoodie and a bad haircut says that everyone wants to get connected and learn more about their own world does not make it so. I will continue to assert until my last dying breath that everyone actually does NOT want to learn more about their own world or get connected to billions of people they do not already know. (Now…to be clear…Zuckerberg’s accomplishment is astounding. Just amazing — only in America! But that’s beside the point)
Why do I believe that this facebook thing is a phase/fad that has already peaked? Well, consider yourself and your own priorities.
How many friends do you truly have? I mean “friends”! Not acquaintances…friends! I don’t have many friends. I have thousands of acquaintances, but I just don’t have the time/interest in maintaining a large number of “friends” who are truly integral to my life. How about you? Do you want your acquaintances to have the same information as your friends have? Are you really interested in learning as much about your acquaintances as you are your friends? In my case — absolutely not. I have a big Chinese Wall between me, my friends, and my acquaintances. I just don’t want to be that “connected,” do you?
Also, if you have internet access, you already have all the “connectivity” you need. You can pick and choose where you want to go, and what you want to know. You have freedom of choice. You have effective limitations on the information others can gain about you because you are NOT on facebook. But you have no limitation on the information you can gain about others because you have access to the internet. You don’t need more than that.
We are in an age of information overload. Today I saw a lady pushing a cart, holding her child’s hand, carrying an umbrella to shield herself from the sun,…and texting on her PDA — all at the same time. Oh, and she was walking across the street too. Give me a break! Is it really that important to be texting while you’re walking your child across the street while pushing a cart with stuff inside? Don’t you think that, at some magical moment in time, the trend will be toward less information rather than more?
ACCESS to information is one thing. Having that information PUSHED to you is another. And having that information PULLED from you is yet another.
You don’t need facebook to gain access to information. Yet, through facebook, information is pushed to you, and pulled from you.
Am I the only one who actually turns his phone off at times during the day? Am I the only one who is starting to understand that constant interaction with others hampers self-awareness and growth?
The bottom line is this: I don’t need facebook. I still have an account because I am a public figure. (And if you want to be my friend, just send me a friend request and I will “friend” you…just like I friend everybody who asks.) But at some point, people will stop equating their self-worth with the number of facebook friends they have.
And at that point in time, the investing public will finally wake up to what the stock is already telling you: That a geek in a hoodie who claims that everyone in the world wants to learn about each other is just…a geek in a hoodie who is talking his book. It is a darned big book…but it is still his book.
You need the internet. You do not need facebook.
–Dan
(To be clear: Mark Zuckerberg is an amazing guy. He has accomplished something that is almost unheard of — he has effectively convinced the multitudes that they need something that they actually do not need. And he has made billions in the process. Don’t criticize Zuckerberg for creating or building facebook — admire him and envy him. But don’t just blindly believe something because he tells you to believe it. Remember…he’s still just a kid in a hoodie.)
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