Solar is close to breaking out $TAN – May 5, 2026
Read the transcript HEREKey Takeaways
- Pattern Recognition: The development of a cup pattern and higher lows indicates a shift from consolidation to accumulation.
-
Volume as a Filter: The recent increase in volume validates the price move, making a successful breakout more likely.
-
Macro Context: Solar has been a laggard compared to the broader bull market; a breakout here could signal a rotation into “catch-up” sectors.
-
Risk Management: Earnings season presents a binary risk. Scott warns that a technical breakout can be derailed by a poor fundamental reaction from a major component stock.
Is Solar Finally Ready to Shine?
The Long Wait for TAN
For the last few months, solar investors have felt like they were left in the shade. While the broader market ripped to new highs, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) was stuck in a sideways grind. But as any veteran trader knows, the longer the base, the higher the space.
The Technical Setup
We are currently seeing a classic cup pattern forming on the daily chart. What makes this move different from previous “fake-outs” is the sequence of higher lows we’ve observed since mid-April. This is a clear sign that buyers are stepping in more aggressively each time the ETF dips.
The Volume Tell
Today, we saw a “skyscraper” of volume hit the tape. In technical analysis, price is the car, but volume is the fuel. Without that pickup in volume, a breakout is just a guess. With it, we have evidence of institutional conviction.
The $61.03 Line in the Sand
Scott McGregor has identified $61.03 as the critical pivot point. This level represents the “ceiling” from February. A close above this mark doesn’t just mean a new high for the month; it signifies that the downward trend from earlier this year is officially over.
Free Chart