Did you miss this trade yesterday? Maybe it’s not too late. Here’s your trade on FleetCor Tech ($FLT). (November 26, 2019)
FLT
I want to look at FleetCor Tech ( NYSE: FLT ), here’s why: This has been a really, really good pattern for several different reasons. First of all, if you just look at how this stock has traded over the last several months, since July, since here really, since July the stock hit close to 300.00. And then has kind of really, really struggled with that ever since July, every time it’s gone up, yes, it broke out a couple of times but then it fell back down.
So this is the way I am looking at this stock because I think it is going to go a lot higher from here. The stock had a really, really nice move to the upside so the stock is being marked up. It’s what you like to see, it’s where you like to be. You want to be in a stock that is being marked up; this year just a really, really nice move. But then you get this first sign that maybe there is some kind of change when the stock has this volatility rather than just trading up in a nice even manner the stock had a few days where it really got slammed down. That’s an indication that maybe institutions aren’t really buying so much. Maybe they are distributing a little bit and so it is just kind of a shot across the bow.
But ultimately, the stock moves up here and then it starts trading sideways, So you are sitting here as a trader, as a technician, a chart guy or lady. And you are looking at this and you are wondering, is this stock that is under distribution that is ultimately going to lead to this markdown phase, you know Wycoff talk about this stuff? Is this going to lead to a markdown phase? Distribution, a nice big markup, distribution and the here we come, here comes the pain. Or is it going to be this kind of move, a little distribution that ultimately turns out to be accumulation to start the next phase?
Well, in my view we kind of have that answer, not here, not really here, not here, it could go either way, not here. To me, I think we have the answer here. I think we have the answer, where the stock runs up to 300.00 and then is trading in a fairly tight range, about $10.00 or so. It doesn’t really fall that much below the 50-day moving average; essentially most of the time it is spending above the 50, which is always a wonderful thing, it’s the sunshine here, the weather is always nice. You can always get a lounge chair out by the pool when this is holding above a flat 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average is catching up. Life is good in the hood.
And so we see this and I was looking at this yesterday, I can’t remember, I don’t think I used this as a Chart of the Day, but in our Strategy Session I had said, “I am looking at this stock and this is looking like it’s ready to break out above 300.00.” So, boom, a lot of people jumped on that today first thing in the morning. It is up almost $8.00, less than 3 percent so it’s not like you missed the best trade of a lifetime.
I am looking at this stock and I think it goes higher. I think we’ve got, if we just look at 300.00 as the top maybe 275.00 is a bottom, you can say 280.00, let’s do that, so it’s $20.00 we’ll say. If we take the $20.00 difference between the top and the bottom here and add $20.00, we get a target of about 320.00, that’s a minimum target. I think this stock should hit 320.00 pretty easily, frankly, and it could be pretty quickly. If it were me and I didn’t own this stock I would be buying now and I would keep a stop just a little under 300.00 just to contain my losses if the stock does reverse. But I am looking at this, high volume move; this stock could move a bit more.
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