The weirdness of SolarWinds ($SWI), FireEye ($FEYE) and Qualys ($QLYS). Somebody needs to buy somebody! (December 14, 2020)
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Let’s talk cyber security. Here is Qualys ( NASDAQ: QLYS ), I think this stock is definitely a buy right here right now. I am kind of joking but kind of not.
Here’s the thing, it’s up 7.5 percent today. It’s back above the 200-day moving average, that’s always a good thing; you never want to buy a stock if it isn’t above the 200. The pattern is really sloppy, you can see even the weekly chart, it’s kind of heavy. But here’s the thing; Qualys ( NASDAQ: QLYS ), their deal is they sell security vulnerability management services, that’s their deal, security vulnerability management services.
Meanwhile, we’ve got Abbott and Costello here, SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ), which I think many of you folks think that that is some kind of woke renewable energy green new deal thing and so it’s time to buy SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ). Well actually, au contraire, not so much. SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ) has their stock nailed because those evil Russian hackers have gotten into the Treasury and the Commerce Department, which use SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ) technologies.
Basically, what I am saying is, these guys suck; they’re at 19.56, which seems to me like it would be about $19.00 above support. So the bottom line is, I’m looking at SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ) and I’m thinking, dude, you guys either need to buy Qualys ( NASDAQ: QLYS ) or Qualys ( NASDAQ: QLYS ) needs to buy you. You guys just need to get together, maybe just go on a date or something like that. And then at the same time you’ve got FireEye ( NASDAQ: FEYE ), which their firewall turned out to be more like a front door or at least a back door so they’re down as well.
This is the thing that absolutely amazes me; these things fail at the very thing that they are supposed to be doing. It’s like you are supposed to be doing one thing. It’s like buying a ball and then it stops being round and you say, I bought you because you’re round, now you decide you’re going to be a square. Well, that doesn’t work for me. That’s what’s happening with these things; the very things that they are supposed to be doing they suck at. And so this is down 12 percent and of course SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ), the new solar-powered wind tunnels I guess, is down a lot.
I look at both of these stocks and I am amazed that they are not down more. I would just say this, don’t buy this just because it’s down this much; it’s going to snap back. It may or it may not. But also, don’t sell it just because you hear me giving you some flippant little video taking some of you woke people to task because you really do think that SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ) is a solar energy play. And look, I know some of you have this on your list of solar stocks along with First Solar ( NASDAQ: FSLR ), etcetera, etcetera, so don’t give me any grief about it, you know who you are.
The bottom line is, watch a stock like this because frankly, I think it’s indicative of what’s happening in the entire market, which is, there is such a disconnect on things that you just don’t know who’s doing what. And I think there’s so much money that is placed in so many different areas that you get these weird things like SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ) on this kind of news, this should be like at $15.00 before the shorts feel like they have to start covering. It’s the same thing with FireEye ( NASDAQ: FEYE ), They should be down a lot more but they’re not.
I would just say this, if you are a day trader if you are a hyperactive day trader the analysis that I gave you doesn’t matter. What matters is this, you look at the Bollinger Bands here on SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ), your favorite solar company, the stock is closing 3 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average. That is virtually against the law; it is just not supposed to do that; and so you could actually, as weird as it sounds, you could actually see this stock trade to the upside tomorrow.
And then when it does if you are not really listening to this analysis you will laugh at Fitzpatrick as the guy who didn’t know anything because he was bearish on SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ). No, I’m not bearish; in the short-term, yes. I wouldn’t do business with this piece of crap company, no way. They’re not asking me to though; I am just saying on a very, very short-term basis tomorrow, you’d probably get a nice pop out of this just on the 3rd standard deviation reversal pop here. But longer-term, watch and see how this trades at the 200-day moving average. Personally to me, I think this is dead money.
With respect to FireEye ( NASDAQ: FEYE ), I think this is REALLY dead money and there is no trade here. The only trade on any of the stocks that I mentioned so far is SolarWinds ( NYSE: SWI ). Qualys ( NASDAQ: QLYS ), there is no trade really on this, there is no real trade here, not right now, but this is definitely one that you want to watch. And if the stock stays above $100.00 for a few days then it could be a stock that you definitely put on your watch list and look for a good entry.
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