If you are trading Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), here’s your timeframe. (December 16, 2020)
GBTC BIDU
I am looking at the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ), that’s the stock trading vehicle for trading Bitcoin. I don’t have a Bitcoin wallet, I actually used to but for various reasons I’m not a “Bitcoiner”. What I should have done is mortgage my house and take all of the money and put it in right there, but I didn’t.
Anyway, I do like the way Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) is trading here. I’ve talked about this before at various times, as far as how this thing is running. But what is really interesting to me is, first of all, Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) itself has finally broken above 20,000, which means a lot when it’s never been above 20,000.
Also, there are stories, there is conjecture or whatever you want to call it, because Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) is not really seen as a fringe currency, to be honest with you I think the dollar is probably less, I won’t say stable, but let me put it this way, I think Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) has more value than the dollar just because it’s all psychological, nobody is really running it.
I like the way Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) is trading here. But what we are hearing is, that we could get these large funds, these large institutions that are saying, “You know what? We need to have an allocation for Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ). Maybe it’s just 1 percent, maybe it’s 2, it’s not going to be 10 but we just need to have a little Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) as part of our asset allocation.”
When you get a whole bunch of people, a whole bunch of funds doing that, that’s going to create a lot of buying pressure. And so that’s really my underlying thesis for why this is so attractive now, other than just the chart. Now, this has traded on monster volume here today, which I figured it would. But this isn’t really the chart I am looking at, if I am looking at this chart I am going to get shaken out.
This is the chart that I am looking at. And as I am looking at this I see a stock that is really getting mature here, coming out of this volatility squeeze with these Bollinger Bands expanding like this. I hate to come up with price targets but I will sometimes, but I always qualify it in this way, it’s a WAG, it’s a wild asterisk guess, that’s all it is, it’s a guess.
It’s not the price target, you will hear some of the fine folks on TV have a price target and they justify it however they justify it. I am just saying, this stock is in a really, really nice high-momentum move and I could easily see it, there will be hiccups along the way but certainly see it to 30.00 and maybe even higher.
What I doing here and what I’ve done is, I own Bitcoin Trust ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) here, I own the GBTC ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ). I bought it on this chart and then I have immediately zoomed back out and I am not even going back and looking at it on a daily chart. I just want to see if this thing will get up to $40.00 and I will sit here and manage the swings either way and just not get shaken out of this because there is literally no way to value this.
Think about this, there is no way to value this as such, and it doesn’t do anything, it’s a currency, it’s a widget. That means that what fundamental thing, what story can hit that would crash this stock? What catalyst could there be that just causes Bitcoin ( OTCMKTS: GBTC ) to actually take a dump? I don’t know what that would be; frankly, I don’t see it. But I do see the chart and that’s how we trade this.
If it starts rolling over you don’t say, well wait a minute, what’s the catalyst, what happened, what do I not know? No, if the trade isn’t working for you then you just take it off. You live and die by the price action on this type of thing. That’s what I am doing; I am kind of living large right now and I hope you can too.
By the way, we closed down our Baidu ( NASDAQ: BIDU ) trade today, I tweeted about this earlier. We closed this down for about a 40 percent profit in a very short period of time and we did it safely. I actually sold into strength a little bit yesterday just to book some profits and let the rest ride. But then today, as the stock ran up to 200.00 and then started failing, I just decided to close the rest of the position. So this has turned out to be a really good trade for us.
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