Too late to make a trade on CyberArk (CYBR)? Here’s what I think. (February 14, 2019)
CYBR
Here’s the thing on CyberArk ( NASDAQ: CYBR ): I started a Growth Stock List that is a combination of technicals and fundamentals, I started that on February 4th and this was one of them. It is up about 20 percent since then. Obviously after the move here today, it has been a heck of a mover. The question is what do you do with it? It is really hard to buy the stock right here, and frankly, I wouldn’t do it.
Let’s just kind of frame the trade here. First, zoom out, you look at the weekly chart here and you can see the stock had been kind of bouncing around right at all-time highs or close to it, a little bit above it but close enough for our conversation. It finally broke out above 80.00, we see that here and then this is a continuation move. If you really kind of just extend the chart you can see that this stock could move a lot farther, a lot more from where it is right now. I would say that $65.00 is the bottom of the channel, we’ll call it $85.00, that’s probably a little bit liberal here but that is $20.00 and then we add on $20.00 to that and we get right about where we are here.
So this has given us the measured move on a stock like this just using simple analysis techniques; draw a box, stack it on top of the last one and that is your price target. I think that the stock is due for a rest but this is truly what I would do: Talking about drawing a box, I would take this as today’s high. I would take this as a reference for the gap right here. And if you own the stock right now, if you own this stock, I would keep a stop right at the top of the box. If the stock falls back below the entry price of $100.77, that’s when you want to take profits.
If you are a late trader here and you say, “I just got the can’t help its and I have got to own CyberArk ( NASDAQ: CYBR ) so later I can say that I was right.” That’s okay too. I think the odds of you making money from here are not that great. You can do it as long as you define your risk.
There is nothing guaranteed in trading other than the fact there is nothing guaranteed. The stock could pullback 20 percent. Shoot, it could pullback almost 25 percent and there would still be nothing wrong with a long-term trend.
You wouldn’t really know whether you were wrong if you don’t have a stop in place. So just decide why you are buying it. How long you are going to hold it. And then if you are a short-term trader, seriously, just keep your stop; I wouldn’t even keep it below the intraday low here. There is no real reason to do that. I would give it like 99.90 or something like that and then you can make the trade with a defined risk.
Again, I am just going to tell you, I don’t recommend chasing stocks like this. Most of the time they don’t work, some of the time they do. They work just enough to keep you coming back to the driving range to keep working on your golf game, that’s really how I look at it. Anyway, be careful of CyberArk ( NASDAQ: CYBR ) at this time if you are buying it.
Free Chart