Morning Market Thoughts
Good morning. Another weak open in equities as we trend down to the lower end of the box that seems to be containing the market. I think that traders are looking right past the Fed’s meeting and focusing on whether the British citizens are going to vote to take back their liberty and endure some short term pain (along with the rest of the global economy), or whether they’ll vote to continue to allow a bunch of unelected bureaucrats living in a place where the most important contribution to modern culture is…the waffle. (It is a good waffle — I’ll give you that.)The idea of Britain leaving the EU is extremely disturbing to the establishment (i.e., all those with monetary interests in the status quo) because an exit by Britain could be the start of a trend. And who could blame people for wanting to leave the party before it deteriorates too badly? At the end of the day, a nation consists of individuals — each with their own and unique blend of hopes, dreams, talents, flaws, fears, desires, passions, weaknesses, strengths, insecurities, and intellectual capabilities.
Governing is extremely difficult because the governed are extremely complex. What might seem like a great idea to those in power is not so easily accepted by the governed. “The United States of Europe” seemed like a great idea to some (only some…not all), but no one really seemed to ask the millions of individuals comprising the population of Europe whether they wanted to sacrifice some liberties in return for some economic advantages.
Now, they are being asked. And the answers that are being given are a bit different than the establishment anticipated.
As previously noted, I just don’t see how Britain will be allowed to exit. The cynic in me simply believes that the final vote tally will be in favor of “Remain”…even if more votes were cast in favor of “Leave.” Elections are funny that way.
But between now and June 23rd, things will get very interesting and I urge you to pay attention.
Stop and think about the many serious issues before us right now:
1. A Presidential election the likes of which I’ve never seen.
2. A slowing economy that never really got out of 1st gear, and central bankers striving to make money so worthless that it doesn’t pay to save it. Instead, we need to buy stocks or socks with it. If we want to put it in the bank, we’ll actually be charged a storage fee.
3. Mass migration across the globe, where disparate cultures are being blended with little in common in terms of religion, language, culture, financial status.
4. A conflict that everyone knows is there, but that we aren’t really supposed to talk about for fear of offending anyone.
5. A nation that is more divided than I’ve ever seen, and probably more divided than at any time since the Civil War.
6. An explosion in media technology that enables instantaneous transmission of just about anything to just about anyone. Social media is rapidly evolving and is invading the life of every single person who uses electricity.
Any one of these things would make for very interesting times. But put all 6 together (and this is just a short list, not the long list) and you have got some very very VERY interesting times. We are living in remarkable times that will be remembered and studied by many future generations. I didn’t find the 70’s to be particularly remarkable (other than the release of Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen); nor do I recall the 80’s being particularly memorable in historic terms. The “Cold War” ended…but it ended with a whimper, not a bomb. And Iraq was invaded…and then let off the hook. The 90’s were generally fine as the stock market rose to new heights. That’s fine…but it wasn’t the stuff that will fill history books. The turn of the century quickly ushered in a global collapse of the financial markets…and a couple of wars in the Middle East.
All of those things were extremely important and definitely impacted us on a global scale. But the various matters that are before us at present are truly historical. I’m not saying that they are bad or good. I’m not advocating a particular outcome. I am just pointing to them and suggesting that you take the time to consider everything that is happening. Don’t let it pass you by. Think for yourself rather than doing what most people do: Tune in to your favorite TV show, or visit your favorite website, and be told what you should think.
These are, indeed, “interesting times” we are living in. Things will get better because they always get better…eventually. Enjoy the ride.
–Dan
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