Morning Market Thoughts

by DAN Good morning. The market has opened a bit flat this morning, and I don’t see much in the way of news, other than a buyout bid for Monsanta (MON) by Bayer (BAYRY). The bid is $122/share, and the stock is trading at $109. Does that mean that there is $13 points on the table? I don’t think so. When stocks typically work this way, it’s because there is a question as to whether the acquisition will go through. So few would be eager to buy at $122 (or $120) in an attempt to make a buck or two because they run the risk of the deal being busted and seeing their easy money turn into a big loss in a blink of an eye.

Nvidia (NVDA) is supplying graphic chips to Tesla and Apple, and enthusiasm for growth of graphics technology in both of those companies is a big catalyst for NVDA. When you look at the chart, you just can’t help but want to buy the stock. I will continue to suggest caution. If the stock doesn’t come back, then it is just a missed opportunity. If the stock does retrace some of its move, then it’s an opportunity to buy closer to where it broke out and hold it for a long time. But I just think it is very poor discipline to buy a stock that has run up so fast, and on declining volume, when it is trading in increasingly tight trading ranges. Better to just stand aside and wait…and wait.

There was a question about the dividend in T-Mobile US (TMUS). My weekend update showed that the yield is 7.62%. I have checked with 3 other sources and can find no such confirming information. I’m using the newest version of TC2000 — Version 16.0. They may have a glitch in their system, so I will contact them about this matter. I spent quite a bit of time with Michael Thompson, who runs their marketing and education programs…and has a lot of insight into what they are trying to do at Worden. There are many new and exciting things happening at TC2000 on the brokerage side. You can now trade stocks directly off the platform, tags and bounces off trendlines, relationships to moving averages, adjust trailing stops simply by adjusting the slope of a line, etc. It is very very impressive stuff and I will definitely be using this in the future. One of the most immediately usable tools on Version 16 is the availability of earnings dates from Zack’s, displayed across the header on each stock. And they are ACCURATE. It’s so nice to be able to review a large number of charts without having to stop and look up their earnings report date.

TC2000 has made things really easy, and I’m going to be working with Michael to develop some scans and screens to go along with a product we are developing. The idea is to make things as easy as possible for members to execute and make money. In what it turning out to be a pretty sluggish economy, and a pretty choppy market, I think that an increasing number of traders are not eager to do as much research as they used to be. You know how it is — when something becomes hard, some people have extra time, and others don’t. So the easier we can make things, the better the environment for members will be. And the better the environment for members…the more successful everyone can be.

Sound good to you?

See you in the forum.

–Dan

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