3 STOCKS I SAW ON TV (May 11, 2016)

by DAN
Every night we watch the same shows, Fast Money and Mad Money, and we want to USE those ideas to grow OUR money. Well good trading takes more than just pushing the buy button every morning, on the stocks you saw on TV last night, especially today. I’m here to help you make money on THESE 3 stocks I saw on TV.

First up, we’ve got to look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). The skuttlebutt on Fast Money was that maybe this is a good time to be shorting the stock; Dan Niles was on and that was his recommendation. As you know I’ve not really been a big Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) fan for quite a while, though I did like it right in here for a while. I don’t know about shorting the stock, frankly. I think you will actually make money on it. The challenge is that Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is so cash rich, that it’s a VALUE stock. And because of that, value managers who don’t really look a charts very much, all they see is cash and a big whopping 2.5 percent dividend yield, they’re going to be buying this stock, and as the stock falls it gets cheaper. The P/E looks better, etcetera, etcetera.

I personally think the big high growth days of Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) are over; Tim Cook isn’t Steve Jobs. With that said though, this is what I would suggest: If the stock starts falling, say below this low here, which is $92.00, it’s basically right where it is right here. If this starts falling below $92.00 maybe you put on a little bit of a short. Then if it starts falling below 90.00, because this is an obvious buy point, if it starts falling below 90.00, then you put on a little bit more of a short. IDEALLY though, SOMETHING comes along, I have no idea what it would be, that would push the stock up into the high 90’s, maybe even in to 100.00 or so. I like to short patterns like this after the stock has rallied and then it kind of peters out. That’s when I’ll short it; because if you’re doing it down here, you’re kind of chasing the selling a little bit.

Okay, now Disney ( NYSE:DIS ). A lot of negative comments about Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), “They missed their quarter. Everything was bad. Oh my gosh, we hate Mickey.” But I just look at this as a buying opportunity (Apple’s ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) got a better dividend). But you look at Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), trending lower, which by the way is not an insignificant thing, top, double top, lower high. But if you’re looking at the shorter-term trend, this is a stock that just broke out of consolidation and has now pulled back to test that level, and it looks like it’s moving higher. So for you short-term traders, you look at the 50-day moving average as potential support, maybe you will make 3, 4, 5 percent out of it, something like that. But just keep in mind that overall this is a stock that peaked last August and since that time it has been drifting lower. Great movies and all that, but right now a short-term buy on the stock, but long-term stay away.

Speaking of stay away, Macy’s ( NYSE:M ). Before today you could see the downtrend here. By the way, when you see stocks in trends like this, don’t be buying them. Obviously with Macy’s ( NYSE:M ) we know what happened, but just don’t be buying these stocks. I get questions from members at Stock Market Mentor to look at a certain chart, “Hey, do you think this pullback is a buy?” And it will look like this, where the stock had been in a trend. It broke down, hit a lower high, and was drifting lower. And maybe you saw this support here and thought, “Okay, this is going to hold.” But I want you to be thinking, as traders, like this: Are you going to predict what’s happening? Is this time different? Do you know more than the rest of the market? Or are you just kind of hoping for something and then your hope is actually masquerading as instinct? I would just say, you keep looking at these trends, and what is the market knowing that you don’t? Or I should say, what do you know that the market doesn’t? Here, you didn’t know much.

Now, MAYBE Macy’s ( NYSE:M ) gets a little short-term bounce here, but there is absolutely no way that I would want to be buying this stock and think, “Wow! I’m getting a deal,” You’re not! This thing is like $30.00 above ultimate support. I’m exaggerating, but not by much. When’s the last time you’ve been into a Macy’s ( NYSE:M )? Me, I’ll probably never go into a Macy’s ( NYSE:M ) again. I’m an Amazon Prime guy, have been for probably ten years. I shop on Amazon SO much, that I swear, my wife and I declared an Amazon moratorium in May. We just wanted to see if we could NOT buy anything on Amazon for a whole month. That’s an addiction, okay? Now, the good news is I’m drinking more than ever, because I’m not buying on Amazon. No, I’m just kidding. But my point is, when you’ve got THAT kind of dynamic, there’s really no room for stores like Macy’s ( NYSE:M ), JC Penney ( NYSE:JCP ), certainly Sears Holdings ( NASDAQ:SHLD ). Those stores basically are just going out of business, they’ll be shutting them down.

And also, and this is the most important, I heard somebody talking today about how Macy’s ( NYSE:M ) was actually really cheap. Listen to me, when you consider the real estate that they own, seriously, it’s a bunch of empty buildings that don’t have anybody in them, on commercial property. Now unless they want to sell them to Boeing and have them make airplanes out of them, that real estate isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. And also, why would you buy a department store stock because of real estate? Buy and REIT instead. Buy Simon Property Group ( NYSE:SPG ), but don’t buy Macy’s ( NYSE:M ). This is the same kind of logic that got GoPro ( NASDAQ:GPRO ) investors in trouble; when you hear some of these analysts talk about how, “Oh, GoPro is actually a media company.” No they’re not. They make cameras and drones. And the drones are going to be basically eclipsed by other drones. So stay away from Macy’s ( NYSE:M ). Stay away from GoPro ( NASDAQ:GPRO ).

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