Know what your timeframe is prior to making a trade. Check out Netflix (NFLX) (November 04, 2015)
NFLX
I want to look at Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) today, and here’s why: it was a strong performer. Here’s ultimately where I’m going with this, you really do want to be long Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), seriously. Look at the weekly chart, this was in a long sideways consolidation, big uptrend, great. But as you look at this now you can see this stock, up here, down here, and this is getting ready, in my view, to pop out to a new high. Think about what this is, a type of thing, where I look at it, I see what’s going on, then I was actually talking to my brother Gary this morning, and he was talking about how kids these days don’t watch ABC, NBC, CBS, blah blah blah, they’re online.
They watch their shows on Netflix, it’s not like, “Oh my gosh! It’s 8:00 on a Tuesday, Three’s Company is on, back during the day when I was watching TV. The bottom line is, the cable industry is rapidly going by the way of the buggy whip. I’m not the guy that’s going to bet against some of those cable companies because, frankly, I don’t really give a rip, but I’ll bet ON a company like Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ). I think the stock goes higher, but here’s the point: I’m giving you these videos and they’re free, so you can ALWAYS assume that they’re worth at least what you’re paying for.
But what I’m really talking about is this, know your time frame, know your time frame. I’ve given some great ideas at various points in my 20 year career, but it’s amazing, there will be two people and one of them will make money on the trade and the other one will lose money on the trade. It’s the same stock, the only difference is the time frame. So my point is, this is really all about you. Because I’m telling you, I’m trying to give you pearls here, it is all about time frames. I have said this before, probably even in this venue, in the Free Chart of the Day, I’ll ride this stock down to $50.00. I know the stock’s expensive, but I just think, even in 2015, this is the wave of the future.
I mean it, I think the industry is just starting to accelerate. And so I look at this, and do I sound really, really bullish? Well yes I am, but I’m not getting too lathered up about it. What I’m saying is, this is my time frame, this is my time frame. You’ll note we’re going back to 2007, so I will move this thing over and what I care about is that before we get to the end of the chart here, that’s right up here, I’ve got a pretty good feeling that this stock is probably going to be, lets say maybe a little bit higher than that, a little bit higher than that, probably somewhere up there.
My point is, what’s your time frame? If you’re buying it now at 114.00 and then in a week it’s down to 110.00, or God forbid, 100.00 and you’re saying, “Oh my gosh Dan, you cost me a bunch of money!” Your time frame is not matching my analysis. That’s really what I’m trying to say. And not just my analysis but any trade you make, what is your time frame? Is it a long-term hold or is it a short-term, you better work for me or I’m out of here, deal? So I’m looking at this longer-term and I’m seeing that ultimately I think this stock is going to move above 120.00 and once it gets above 120.00 it’s going to continue to move. Now, what I want you to be doing is this: if you’re buying this stock here, you know it’s up at the top of the zigzag here, where’s your stop?
I’m not telling you where to put one. I’m just telling you, you need to have one, because you don’t want to risk too much money on one trade. That’s it for this video, I hope it helps. The moral of the story is here, time frame must be included in any analysis, because if it’s not, then seriously, how do you know if you’re wrong or not? And how do you know whether you’re right for that matter? Got to look at your watch. Got to look at the calendar. I swear, intraday time frames, intraday charts sometimes are the worst thing that can happen to the retail trader. I’ll say it again, intraday charts are sometimes the worst thing that can happen to the retail trader, because you get shaken out all day long.
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