Apple (AAPL) — I don’t think you want to go there. (October 27, 2015)
AAPL
I want to just look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ); this won’t take too long. The company reported earnings. They beat estimates, but they gave kind of tepid guidance going forward. The market cares more about, not even, “What have you done for me lately?” It’s, “What are you going to do for me next?” My suggestion would be just to not really do anything with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) right now. This is not a stock that I would want to be long. I haven’t wanted to be long this stock for a long time and here’s why, right here, I mean it doesn’t get a whole lot plainer than this (Can I use the work plainer or is it more plain?),anyway, top, and then everything sold off here on August 24th.
So would I use this as an opportunity to buy Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) at 95.00? Maybe, but there’s like 98 bazillion stocks that were on sale that day, so you maybe want to looking at something else with better prospects. So the stock trades up and now it is back up just barely above this last level here. So here’s what I want to mention: first of all, and I’ve said this a lot, don’t be trading after hours, you’re just going to look like a fool. Maybe nobody else will see it but the guy on the other side of your trade will. Look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), they report earnings and the stock immediately starts gyrating up and down.
Some moron thinks it’s a sell down here at 110.00. Some moron thinks it’s a buy up here at 117.00. Depending on who was who they feel either good or bad. But the bottom line is this: this is a lot of gyrating around for what? It’s for gambling. Typically the first move is wrong. I was sitting here watching After Hours with a friend of mine just looking at the tape on CNBC. I forget which company it was that reported earnings, but the stock was down and I said, “Oh, just watch what happens here.” And sure enough the stock started climbing. It’s just like the first move is almost always wrong on a stock in response to earnings. You would do well to keep that in mind. So don’t be trading after hours.
The stock is down a little bit now. Who knows what the upgrades or downgrades are going to be? But if the stock falls back to the 50-day moving average and then finds support there, and the 50-day MA is at 112.00. So if the stock happens to come down to 112.00, we’ll even say at 110.00, and then finds support here, then that’s your opportunity to buy this stock. If it falls though, really, and I said 110.00, and that’s fine, it’s an even number, but if the stock starts falling below this level then this entire move is one big fake out above this 50-day moving average and you want to get out of this stock.
I really don’t care that people say, “Oh well the stock is really cheap, the multiple is really low.” Do you know what multiple was really low at one point? Hewlett Packard. Another one, Bethlehem Steel. What I’m saying is, not that this is a Bethlehem Steel, but you don’t just look at every stock with a cheap multiple and say, “Wow! I got to buy that stock.” At the end of the day, and I know this is going to tick some of you off, but I really don’t care. This is a hardware company, they sell hardware, they just don’t sell printers, so they’re a little bit different than Hewlett Packard. I know that’s blasphemy to some of you, but it’s a hardware company, period.
Yes they write the code that goes into their boxes and stuff. But this is a very fickle industry, and I’m telling you, and I’m looking forward the seeing the big iPad so that my lousy eyes can actually read something, but I think the “bloom’s come off the rose” here. So anyway, trade this at your own risk. It’s in consolidation now. If you think this was the quarter that it took for Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) to return to it’s old glory days of 135.00 then be my guest. I would just say it’s a stock that I want to either avoid or at least be patient with. Because I don’t think this is a market leader. I don’t think it’s going to be a market leader. I think you can put your money to work better elsewhere.
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