What do Apple (AAPL) and Skyworks (SWKS) have in common? Check this out. (August 06, 2015)
I want to look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and Skyworks ( NASDAQ:SWKS ) and this is why. I’ve been watching CNBC today and there are just so many that are saying that Apple’s ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) a steal at $115.00, this is a deal, you’ve got to buy it. What I’m saying is, why is there so much hullabaloo, that is a trading term, I guess it is now, about Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) at $115.00?
I think that there is a lot of “talking my book” going on where, “Oh Apple is this great deal and this and that and the other thing.” Maybe it is, “Oh they have so much cash.” Dude, so do a lot of companies, but it doesn’t matter. What people are looking for is growth. “Oh but the stock’s really cheap.” That’s right, it is. I think it’s got a P/E trailing 12 months, 13 or something like that. Well if the stock is really cheap, and I’m not doggin’ on Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), but I’m looking at this chart and there’s absolutely nothing about this that I want to buy; but if the P/E is 13, that’s really cheap.
Now, what if the P/E was 11.7? That would be cheap as well; it would also be a 10 percent cut from where it is right now. My point is, it’s kind of weird how things that are cheap can continue to get cheaper. I’m looking at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) on a weekly chart, it’s coming out of a volatility squeeze to the downside. I guess I could take some time, I’m not going to, and do something cool, snap a graphic of this, flip it upside down and then say, “What would you do if this stock was going up?” Instead I guess I’ll just ask you to stand on your head.
This is a stock that’s been moving this way, sideways consolidation, tight, tight volatility squeeze. Flip this thing around to where this is actually a breakout above the 50-day moving average. Above the 50-day moving average after the stock had come down and down and down and then drifted sideways forever; it had come down, zigzagging around, drifted sideways forever. The 50-day moving average was trickling along here, and came right there, the stock’s moving sideways, suddenly, Boom! on volume.
Wouldn’t this be a stock that you would want to buy? This would be a screaming, smoking buy. If the stock ultimately pulled back and then firmed up again, I would want to buy more. My point is, and I’ve got nothing against Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), I’ve got Apples all over the place, but this is a stock that needs to go lower. There are too many people that own it. If you’re in a mutual fund that’s even half-way tech I guarantee you, you own Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). Everybody already owns it. Who’s going to buy it that’s going to push it higher? Who’s going to sell it?
Well a lot of folks would like to sell it because their interested in getting something else. That’s why the stock is quote “cheap”. Here’s it’s sister stock, Skyworks ( NASDAQ:SWKS ). The weekly chart looks kind of a bit like Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), doesn’t it? All the way through, why? Because these have been trading in tandem. Skyworks ( NASDAQ:SWKS ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is a big customer of theirs, they exchange birthday cards. So when I see these two stocks trading in sync like this I don’t want to own them, I don’t want to buy them.
The 200-day moving average; as my late Mom used to say, big whoop. So it’s hitting the 200-day moving average. I think it’s pretty much a lead pipe cinch that you’re going to get some kind of bounce, because that’s what stocks do when they’ve hit the 200-day moving average before. It’s likely going to bounce, but look at all the pain that is in this chart. All the folks that bought up here, a lot of them would love to sell it to you. This is the way Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) looks too, so it’s already fallen out of bed.
What I want you to do is, I want you to stay away from these stocks right now. If they do start moving higher you can blame me. But I’ll tell you one thing, you’re going to have plenty of time to get into these stocks, there not just going to run away without you. Apple’s ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) not coming out with a new big thing. By the way their streaming thing, what is it 11 million fans that are trying it out? That’s great, kudos to them, it’s not like anybody’s ever thought of the streaming thing before.
Pandora ( NYSE:P ) by the way has recovered all of it’s loses since Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) came out and decided that they want to be the iPandora. By the way they also made a lot of changes that makes their iTunes really stink. Some guys like me, I don’t need to be asked 90 million times if I want to sign up for streaming music. I already bought a bunch of stuff, I like it, and I just want to listen to that. Call me an old krumugin, that’s the Forrest Gump, and that’s all I have to say about that.
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