Here’s my take on the S&P 500, along with updates on my two non-favorite stocks — AAPL and SWKS (August 21, 2015)
I’m going to be looking at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and Skyworks ( NASDAQ:SWKS ), which I know you bulls are really ticked at me for that, but I’m sure you’ll learn to live with it. I want to start with the S&P, here’s the deal; in my view this is the top for the year. I’m not prognosticating I’m just looking at the way traders trade, I don’t think we’re getting back here. Short-term, meaning like Monday, Tuesday, something like that; short-term I think we’re going to get a bounce.
If you’re really, really long it feels like this is going to zero, but it’s not. Hopefully you’ve got cash on the sidelines and you want to be looking for some kind of a tradable bounce. But here’s what I’m telling you, this was the trading range right here. My bet is that for the foreseeable future, meaning at least another week or so, the trading range is going to be right here. In my view it could ultimately extend down as low as 19.10, which would just match, on the downside from the S&P, the same percentage that we saw on the upside from the S&P right at the top. But this is not a high base; this is now resistance.
All these folks that bought up here, not a one of them is happy, not a one. That means as we get any kind of a rally here you’re going to get selling pressure, don’t just expect this to march higher on to victory just like I also don’t want you to expect this to keep moving lower, “Oh! This is going to go down to 18.50.” Why, because it did back here? That doesn’t mean anything. That was then this is now, totally different market. What I’m talking about is a tradable bounce, which I promise you, you will see this week. We just don’t know it it’s going to be at 9:30 in the morning on Monday or maybe 10:30, something like that. But that’s what I think.
Okay, back to your favorite stock here. Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), sorry I still don’t want to buy this thing; $100.00, maybe, I’m not looking at it as a valuation call, I’m looking at it from two standpoints. First of all the chart, if it wasn’t for the fact that this was Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), lets get rid of this here, watch this. Boom! Suddenly it’s not Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) anymore it’s just a chart. Do you really want to buy that? I don’t. The weekly chart, still don’t want to buy it. I might look at $100.00, but with China doing what China’s doing right now and cell phone companies deciding maybe they don’t want to be subsiding the next iPhone that’s a problem for Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), plus Apple music stinks.
So this is one that still doesn’t work for me but you don’t want to get too bearish on it either just stop being an “Appleonian”. If you’re ticked off because I’m knocking down your stock, Chief, you really need to find a new game because this isn’t working for you. You don’t want to be a stock cheerleader, you don’t want to be a cheerleader anyway, particularly looking at your legs, but you definitely don’t want to be a cheerleader about stocks, it totally takes your objectivity out of the game.
Okay, Skyworks Solutions ( NASDAQ:SWKS ), this also still goes down. Now they’ve got a lot more going for them than to have a big contract with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). Their business is a little bigger but the chart, they’re just a little behind Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), but you can see the same dynamics. I want you to still stay away from these stocks for the time being.
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