Are you still in Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)? Here’s how to stay in. (July 21, 2014)
I want to talk about Skyworks ( NASDAQ:SWKS ) here. This is a stock that had been in a volatility squeeze and it’s done that before, multiple times. I can’t really say that this was much of a squeeze, this really was a little bit of a fake out, but only to the 50-day moving average; this was a squeeze and lo and behold, this is one too. So the stock’s been very predictable if you can say that about a stock when it comes to breaking out of volatility squeezes.
Look at the weekly chart, the stock’s not quite gone parabolic but it’s close enough to it to make it come to mind. This is a stock that’s moving higher, the question is can you buy it now? Let’s look at this on three standard deviations. These widest Bollinger Bands here statistically encompass 99.9 percent of the price action. In other words it’s almost like a government regulation that the stock not close above the third standard deviation here, but it did on Friday, and it did today.
This is not a stock that you want to mess around with because it can do that for a while. But I will say this, I think that “while” will be limited to max another day, maybe more, but this stock just can’t go up that much more before you’re going to see some profit taking come in. So do you short the stock? No, you only short the stock if you’re managing money for someone you don’t like very much. Friday saw the big earnings jump, today, Monday, there was a dramatic decrease in volume. Look what it is relative to average volume, it’s about twice as much, and so the stock is still under accumulation.
So here’s what you do, if you’re long the stock stay long, don’t try to time the top, this doesn’t look like the top to me, it just looks like it’s higher than just about anywhere else on this chart, but don’t try to time the top, be happy that you’re long, you’re making money unless you happen to buy at the very top today, in which case you’re down twenty-six cents. Use today’s intraday low, this is for a trade, if you’re just in this for the long haul then shut off you’re screen and go away, use today’s intraday low of 52.62 as your reference for your stop. Again, if you’re trading you keep the stop just below there.
So the only way that you will get stopped out is if the selling pressure in the future, whether it’s tomorrow or Wednesday, if the selling pressure in the future is greater than the selling pressure that you saw today; in other words, some dynamic is changing. That’s important when the stock has made this kind of a move. Just as a general proposition, who cares if a stock closes above or below yesterday’s intraday low? I mean I wonder how many times it did this here, all the time, look what happened, so use this as a reference for your stops.
Know that this trade, at least in my view, again I’ll say it, as a trade not as a long-term hold, this trade has a limited duration as measured in probably another day or two, but we don’t have to guess how long that’s going to be. Just keep using the prior day’s intraday low and that’s going to work for you to help you stay in the trade for as long as you can prudently stay in the trade.
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