A look at the Fast Money Halftime Charts of DECK, CAB, and CRM (June 20, 2014)
I want to show you the three stocks that I was talking about on the “Fast Money Halftime Report.” First is Deckers ( NYSE:DECK ): you can see this uptrend, the stock has been in this consolidation phase for a while, it’s hitting the 40-week or 200-day moving average right here. This is a stock that’s begging for a breakout here. I think you can buy this stock right now, you keep a stop a little bit below 75ish or so, something like that, and this is going to work for you. The daily chart is giving you a little buying opportunity. If the stock falls back closer to 77.00, even a better buying opportunity; we just need to see Deckers ( NYSE:DECK ) stay above the 200-day moving average.
Now alternatively my thesis on Cabela’s ( NYSE:CAB ) is, this is a stock in search of a bottom. Look at the weekly chart; you can see again on this 40-week or 200-day moving average, you can see how this stock has been trading above that. Comes down every so often to test that, but it’s been trading above that over the last how many months or quarters, the stock went from above to now below, let’s go back to the daily chart, do you know what that was? I’ll tell you, this was the day that the company guided lower, they came out and guided lower on earnings per share. The stock traded as low that day as 59.69 and it looked like an awesome buying opportunity and it was; 59.69, we’ll call it $60.00 up to 72.00. What’s that, a 20 percent move, I’ll take that any day. But now everybody’s a loser, everybody who bought since that warning is losing money. That’s known as not a good thing, so you can short Cabela’s ( NYSE:CAB ) if you want but just know that today 1.3 million was kind of a big day.
Here we’re looking at this on the 5-minute chart, you can kind of blame me for this because this is when I was on “Fast Money” talking about this, but you can also see that the movement that happened to the stock when I came out with that analysis was also quickly retraced. By the way, understand that that’s the dynamics of television, you can have any fool on there and if they say something you’re going to have a lot of traders follow along with that analysis. Just know that that’s the short-term ebb and flow, it doesn’t mean anything, because look here, Fitzpatrick says lets sell, 2, minutes, 5 minutes later somebody who didn’t have CNBC on says, “Oh Cabela’s, sold off a little bit, I think I’m going to buy some.”
So just don’t get suckered into the short-term movements of a stock, it will cost you money. What’s more important is that this stock is coming out of a volatility squeeze flowing to the down side. I said that if the stock trades below 58.55 then I would have to say that this is a top not just consolidation. I frankly don’t think you even should wait. The way this thing is trading maybe it will get a little bounce on Monday, but I think Cabela’s ( NYSE:CAB ) goes lower.
Finally, Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), my thesis on that, this was actually a friend of mine who trades very well for the amount of time that she’s been trading, asked me a few days ago, “Hey, don’t you think that Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ) is probably a good one to buy?” And I’m thinking, where were you last week? This is moving even higher; I think that this high volume spike up here works, up to $58.00, now the stock is just consolidating. I would be surprised if it kept going up from here. I would not be surprised if instead the stock was consolidating for a while, maybe even fell down a bit.
This is institutional buying here, when a stock trades 13 million shares in a day, that’s not Jim-Bob and Jethro buying stock, that’s big institutions buying stock. So I think this downtrend here is over and I think Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ) ultimately, we’ll just draw it out like this, easy trendlines, there’s your support, there’s resistance like that; I don’t see any reason why it can’t come up to $75.00; that would be my price target based on, you just saw my analysis, nothing more than that. By the way 4:1 stock split back here in 2013, and the stock’s still higher than it was then by almost 50 percent, so this stock has been moving, not because of a liquidity issue, there’s plenty of liquidity, the stocks been moving because it’s one that you want to buy.
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