What do I think about as I contemplate eating turkey? Agricultural chemicals, of course.
Discussed in this article: PowerShares DB Diversified Agriculture Fund ( $DBA )
I thought we would check on how the agricultural stocks are doing, so we’re starting here with the DBA, it’s the Agriculture Fund ( NYSE:DBA ), an ETF, plenty liquid, over two million typically traded, and so what are we seeing here on the weekly chart? We’re seeing kind of a nasty down trend over the last couple years, but we’ve also got some stabilization now. This is really the low right here, and I’m just going to draw lines and boxes, which is actually one of my favorite things to do, I started doing that actually before I was in kindergarten. We’ve got a little box here with this being the low. So why am I getting into this? This is a higher low for now, I’m not looking at trading the DBA, I don’t really care about that, but its lead me to some other stocks that are in the agricultural sector.
First of all, some of the machinery, Terex ( NYSE:TEX ), nice pattern here, close to a breakout, look at resistance, I’ll say it’s basically at resistance, I guess you could say 37.00, but wouldn’t that be like a new high? You look at this stock, it’s printing higher lows, a flat top here, look at any breakout, hopefully it happens on volume, you want to see big volume, I would say over 1.5 million shares traded in a day; that isn’t going to happen on Friday because it’s going to be a low volume day. But look for this stock to break out and keep going if it prints over like I said, one and a half million shares, we’ll call it above the upper Bollinger Band, which is 36.68, so let’s use 36.70, what do you think?
Okay, Cummins ( NYSE:CMI ), this is another stock that’s below the 50-day moving average, but it’s got kind of a I want to go higher look to it. You can see here the stocks been trading essentially in kind of a choppy high base for the last almost three years here, but more recently this volatility squeeze right here and a breakout to the upside, a resolution to the upside, and then a pullback. So here’s our consolidation here, you look at the daily chart, there it s right there, so this is going to work, this is going to work just fine. I’ve got a few others and then I’m going to tell you something about what we’re doing for quote “Black Friday.”
Agrium ( NYSE:AGU ), this is in a really nice bowl here, resistance right at the 200-day moving average. These stocks, by the way, have been getting no play in the financial media, and there’s a reason. They’re trading below the 200-day moving average, the trend is lower, they’re kind of boring, and this and that. But I’m telling you, when you start seeing this stock trade back above the 200-day moving average, suddenly you’re going to get a lot of talk about how wonderful they are. So we’re getting this first, it would have been nice to have gotten it back here, but you know what? I wished I’d bought Apple at $5.00 as well, didn’t happen. So what I’m saying is that this stock is poised to move higher and I love it, particularly when I see other stocks in the same sector kind of doing the same thing.
CF Industries ( NYSE:CF ), up at characteristic resistance, but this is another one that’s just looking kind of perky. It’s got the, I think I want to go higher look to it. It’s not as liquid, less than half a million shares traded, but as long as this 50-day moving average works then I think this stock is going to work.
Okay one more, Monsanto ( NYSE:MON ). What’s the big deal here? I know it’s pushing higher and that’s great. This is what I’m looking at, you look at the weekly chart and 40-week or 200-day moving average, that’s the blue line, had been trending sideways, now it’s moving upwards again, this thing’s just starting to walk along the upper band here, this is a stock that moves higher as well.
So these are a bunch of stocks that I want you to watch. By the way here, if the stock does pull back, it really needs to hold around the 110.00, 108.00, somewhere like that and I think you’re going to be fine.