Amazin’ Amazon (AMZN) — you need the right timeframe to make the right trade.
Discussed in this article: Amazon.com Inc. ( $AMZN )
I want to look at Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ). The market was really rockin’ today and frankly I think it’s going to probably continue like that for a bit. I’m looking at stuff that’s been working, if a stock is dipping, if it was weak today, if it’s been weak for the last couple of days; frankly when everything else has been moving higher I don’t want to buy the crap that nobody’s wanted and they’ve been rotating their money into everything else. Because there’s a reason why those prices are down and it’s not because somehow everybody missed this gem.
I want to be into stuff that’s working, and one of these is Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ). If you’re buying this right now you are not early, that’s for sure, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t be bought; as the old saying goes, “Buy high and sell higher.” You don’t always have to buy low and sell high. What you really want to do is just sell higher than you bought. So it’s okay to chase as long as you’re not the last guy in the door.
Here, with Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), it all depends on your timeframe. The stock is quite a ways above the 50-day moving, average, twenty-one points or so, a little bit more than that actually, almost what thirty-points. About thirty-points above the 50-day moving average, call it 10 percent. Not a good time to be buying, but if you’ve got a longer time horizon look at the weekly chart. I’ve stretched this puppy back till 2006, but this is the point that I’m really looking at. I’m looking at this sideways drift, the sideways consolidation and the stock is just now starting to break out above that.
Now you may be saying, “Well Dan, Amazon’s ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) really expensive. Well guess what? This stock has been expensive during its entire life, that’s just the way the stock trades, so frankly I stopped caring about how expensive Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) was a couple hundred points ago. It really doesn’t matter, and the reason it doesn’t matter, I’ll say it again, for most of us if you’re running a billion dollars right now on a hedge fund then first of all what do you do in listening to me?
Second of all you’re the guy that cares about the fundamentals. If you’re listening to me I’m just telling you, as long as the chart is working on a stock like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), I’m not talking about some goofy, cheesy little stock that your buddy told you about, and you look and you see it has no earnings and no revenues, but it’s really cool, that’s not what I’m talking about.
What I’m saying is, a stock that’s habitually expensive like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), whenever you hear somebody, whether you read an article or whether you see somebody on CNBC talking down, and I’m not an Amazonian don’t get the wrong idea, I’m long Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), but I’m long a lot of stuff, but when you hear somebody talking down a company like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), a stock like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), and saying its really expensive, why don’t you just flip the channel to the “View” or something else because that information will not make you any money. I’m telling you right now it’s expensive, but if Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) continues to grow, well then this expensive stock can get more expensive, the price just keeps going up.
Once again I’ll say it, I’m not in Amazonian, I’m not some knuckle head that’s just saying buy, buy, buy. You’ve got the Appleonians who were like that when Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) looked like it was going to the moon, then it stopped looking like it was going to the moon, and a lot of people are pounding the table saying it was a great buying opportunity all the way down. But that’s not the case with Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ). Look at the chart, the chart is telling us that this stock is poised to move higher, that it’s actually just starting. We saw a similar thing actually with Boeing ( NYSE:BA ) several months ago, we got the same kind of thing. So with Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), I’m not comparing the Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) to airlines or to aircraft, but you’ve got a look at 300.00 here, and you have to zoom out and take a longer-time horizon.
What I mean by this is, let’s say you’re going, “If Fitzpatrick’s bullish on Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) I’ve got to hunch, I’m going to buy a bunch.” You buy some at 300.00, and then the stock pulls back to 280.00, and you sell it, and you say,”Well that Fitzpatrick doesn’t know squat. ” Well, you may be right about that, but you were also wrong on the trade, and this is why. Because I’m looking at a weekly chart here; I care about where Amazon’s ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) going to be, I care about where it’s going to be way over here, sometime in 2014. This is the analysis that I’m talking about; I’m talking about an uptrend, little consolidation, uptrend, sideways, tight squeeze, and then a continuation of the move. I’m talking about a stock that is probably going to be at 400.00 within the next, I’ll say the next year.
Frankly, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here, because you know what? Most folks listening to this video tend to think that a long-term trade is between now and two weeks from now, or three weeks from now, and that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about being long a stock that has defied the fundamental critics and just continues to move higher. So I want you to focus on the chart, ignore the analysts, but once again, focus on the chart. As long as this chart is working then you’re good. At some point the chart is not going to work so this is the key to the kingdom right here; focus on the chart, forget the other guys. But if the chart is not working and you’re long and you don’t want to sell because you’re going to be selling at a loss, don’t then go turn to the analysts and wonder if there’s another reason for you to be owning this stock. If you’re owning the stock because of the chart then you need to continue to own it until the chart stops working, and if the chart stops working you need to stop owning the stock.
My sense, you’re going to be real happy towards the end of this year and into next year if you’re still owning Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ). As always, keep a stop, trade with some kind of risk control and one other thing, I know that Cramer says you want to be averaging down, I saw it on “Mad Money” the other night; everybody has their own way, but here’s mine. I don’t think you want to be buying bigger blocks of stock on the way down; maybe ultimately you’ll be right, but I say what you do is, you buy one block of stock that’s lower than the initial block, assuming that was a part of your plan, and after that, you know what? You’ve got to trade this stock and you raise your cost basis on the way up, because you’re actually trading with the house’s money then, you’re not putting your hard-earned money to work in a stock that may be going down for reasons that you don’t know about.