Here’s my take on the S&P.

We’re going to take a look at the S&P 500 Here’s the thing, I noted on CNBC on Friday, about these bounces off the 50-day moving average; I called them low-risk buying opportunities, because you know when you’re wrong; you were wrong here, if the S&P continued to fall, in other words if it didn’t bounce. It turns out you weren’t wrong to buy; similar here, support held, similar thing, actually here and here, support held, here, same thing, support held, you were right.

However, if the S&P gets back down below 1600 after having made only this high, this is going to be a lower-low, this will then be a very, very meaningful number, 1650. Suddenly, we’ve gone from a high of basically 1700, 1687, up here, from that high, to 1650 and a break of a key support line, a key Fibonacci level, a key moving average, you name it. So in that event I really think this market’s going to struggle for a bit. I don’t, quote, call tops, that’s just not what I do, I can identify them after the fact. I really plan on what’s going to be moving ahead here in the short term as opposed to making some big macro call.

Let me just tell you what I’m doing; I’m looking at 1600, I am not even close to fully invested in the market right now because I see this and I’m just not really feeling the love. I don’t feel as confident about this as I did about this, and certainly as I did about that. If we fall off of 1600 you can bet I’m going to be raising a lot of cash and getting ready for another buying opportunity. But I do not see it, not here, not now, until we test 1600. My bet, if I was a betting man, and I’m not, I think we’re going to breach 1600 and we’re going to spend some time down in this range for a while.