Here’s what you need to do with Apple (AAPL) right now. (January 24, 2013)
AAPL
I’m Dan Fitzpatrick at Stock and OptionMarketMentor.com on Thursday, January 24th. In this video I want to look at Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ). Look, here’s the deal, I saw somebody on “Fast Money” last week, I don’t know who it was, I forget, and that’s probably a good thing, they were saying definitively that the bottom is in, like the bottom is in, the bottom is in, in Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ). Look, if you’re listening to people make calls on CNBC, and I’m not singling out this guy who ever he is, if you’re listening to people make calls like this ask yourself, can he really do that? Does he or she, whoever it is, do they really have that kind of prescience? Do they really have that kind of edge that they can pound the table and say definitively the bottom is in or this is the top or whatever the reason, you know, whatever the call is, something like that? The reason I’m saying that is because I’m trying to, through these videos as well as Stock and OptionMarketMentor.com, by the way guys in the OMM forum, awesome job today, I understand that was rockin’ in there with a lot of great analysis of some great trades and all the children playing together really well in the sand box, so I love that, thank you. But anyway, what I’m trying to do here and the rest of the people on my team, is empower you. And you know empowerment; you know where that starts from? It starts from disempowering other people; in other words take everything you hear with about two grains of salt, preferably Himalayan sea salt, which is really, really good, especially when mixed with almond butter. But anyway, take things that people say with a grain of salt and ask yourself, where the heck is that coming from? Again, whether it’s a fundamental call or technical call, just because somebody’s on Bloomberg or CNBC or you hear him on the radio or see an Internet video, by the way I’m putting myself at the top of this list of people that you should be skeptical about. Just because somebody’s got a microphone or a camera maybe that means they’re good enough to have a microphone and a camera and actually have an audience that will listen to them, but they’re not so good that they know stuff that you don’t know. I’ll say it again, they’re not so good that they know stuff that you don’t know or that you can’t know with just a little bit of thinking. And so I’m challenging you to start thinking for yourself, listen to what people are saying, read what people are writing, but then put it in your own mill, put it in your own grinder, put it in your own bag and shake it up, because you are the one that knows, more than anybody else, about your finances; because if you start making trades based solely on what Dan Fitzpatrick says or what anybody else says, then let’s face it, it’s really not your trade anyway, it’s just mine, and unless you have my cell number and are inclined to call me up and of course I’m inclined to answer and tell you exactly when to get out of that trade, then you’re not a trader you’re just somebody who’s working on a tip. So don’t do that, take advantage of all the resources that you have and then ultimately make your own decision. Now, with that said, take what I have to say with a grain of salt, make your own decisions, but I don’t think Apple’s ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) done going down. I didn’t think it was done going down before earnings, I just didn’t know, because it could’ve screamed up to $600.00 or higher on a great number or it could have been pounded to $450.50 on bad numbers. But the path of least resistance is down, I don’t have to, especially if you remember, you’ve been hearing me talk about this forever, I don’t have to point out this head and shoulder pattern to you with the neckline, that’s obvious, very obvious frankly, anybody who’s a technical trader should look at a chart like this and go, Oh! Head and shoulders. Okay, and I’m not talking shampoo, so you take this distance here between $500.00 and wherever the heck this thing was, I think $710.00 or whatever, and then you subtract it from the neckline break which is $500.00, and you have what’s called a measured move. Well, that right now, that measured move is right around three, I think like $310.00, $320.00, something like that, it’s right back to here. And so I think frankly Apple ( $AAPL Apple inc ) could fall that low, I’m certainly not predicting it, and even if it does it’s not going to fall in a straight line, it’s an awesome company, it’s just that their growth rate is slowing, they’re still growing, but not as fast as they were. So this company has some fundamental issues that impact how much somebody would pay for the company; they used to be paying a lot for growth, now, not so much. Now I think this dividend is actually going to become pretty important. Two percent now is not that much, it doesn’t get your attention when the stocks down ten, but at some point the stocks going to get down to where money managers are looking at this and saying, “Hey!” “You know it’s still Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ), it’s a great tech company, Absolutely!” “I want to own it and a little dividend, you know that’s pretty cool to.” So you will see some buyers coming in here, but don’t get sucked into this, like somebody’s pounding the table saying how Apple’s ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) really cheap right now, fine, before you go hit the buy button see if anybody else is, see if the stocks actually moving higher, because if it’s not moving higher then obviously the market does not agree with the guy who’s saying it’s on a fundamental basis, this is a really cheap stock. On a fundamental basis, frankly, Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) was really cheap here and it was cheap here and hear and here, certainly hear and here, all the way down. It’s been cheap, cheap, cheap, so do you think Apple’s ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) cheap here? Heck yeah! It’s really cheap. So cheap doesn’t cut it, it’s got to be more than cheap, and what I’m saying is it’s got to have some accumulation of buyers. The stock has just got to be done going down, and that’s going to require, in my view, more liquidation, because there’s a lot of folks, a lot of investors who are long Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ). You know what? I’m even long Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) in a long term investment account that I have, go figure, I’m pounding the table for 200 points saying how you’ve got to get out of Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) but I got it in one of my long-term accounts; that’s where diversification works for you. So the bottom line is this, just don’t be rushing out to buy Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ), it’s just another stock now. Remember Dell, remember Microsoft, remember Cisco, remember Hewlett Packard back in the late nineties, early two thousands? Those all had a pretty nasty fall from grace, Intel, same thing. So Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) does indeed have a way to go on the downside, so don’t be standing in front of this falling knife trying to catch it, just let it do what it’s going to do. With the abundance of things that are going up, do you really need to be fixated on Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) at all? Because I can tell you unless something really weird happens, you’re not going to hear me talking about it out in front of the curtain, meaning in these Free Chart Videos, I may be chatting about it in Strategy Sessions and Weekend Updates for members, but even then, memo to you members, this is not going to be a focal point of my analysis, it’s like I really don’t care about this, I was hoping that it would bounce because I could short it, and frankly because I’ve been talking about, to quote myself, “Shorting the snot out of Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc ) if it breaks down below $500.00,” I think I’ve got to go ahead and short this stock just to prove myself not being a liar. So that’s all I got, stay away from this thing, that’s all. Okay members, over to the Strategy Session; sorry we’re out a little bit later than usual but that’s the weird thing about life, it happens. Free Chart