If you’re trading this earnings run on AAPL, this will help you stay in the trade (July 05, 2012)
AAPL
I’m Dan Fitzpatrick at StockMarketMentor.com on Thursday July 5th. The other day I was looking at Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ) and suggesting that this thing was going to start in earnings run. It was strong today, in the face of weak market action, so I think that’s exactly what’s happening. Timing though is a big deal. Let me go down of the five minute chart, I’ll show you what I’m talking about. First of all, and members I cover this and quite a bit more in the in this evenings Strategy Session, but if you look here, again, five minute chart, so this is towards the end of the day, last hour; so we saw this dip down below a moving average and there’s nothing special about this, it’s the lazy moving average, it was the fifty day moving average and since I switched to five minutes it’s now the fifty five minute chart moving average, go figure. Anyway, you can see that it’s actually started to trickle down lower, below this middle Bollinger band, in the bottom half of the Bollinger band range. Well, what’s been happening in the mornings? What’s been happening in the mornings is, this is when the stock is making its gains. Look back here you get a gap up; stock kept moving, and then largely traded sideways; we got a little pop at the end of the day, but that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m not doing a play-by-play here; I’m trying to show you something that will help you make money. So then we taper off towards the end of the day. What happens the very next morning? Well, kind of like what happened here; stock trades up, trades higher for about an hour or so, a little bit more; tapers off the rest of the day. What happens the next day? Well, the stock gapped up, not a whole lot but it gapped, particularly if you looking to own it, and you don’t, that gap is painful you chase it. Well, chasing it was good because the stock again moved up in the morning. Are you seeing a pattern? What happens today? Well, stock moved higher in the morning and just kept on going until when? Well, a couple hours, maybe an hour and a half into the day, and then it kept trading flat. Down a little bit towards the end, that doesn’t really concern me. So what do we do? Well, you’ve got the big employment number out tomorrow and there’s no question about, it that’s going to impact trading; but if Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ) starts to move higher, if it starts to move lower, well then everything I just told you, forget about it; but if it starts to move higher, after the open, that’s when you want to be buying Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ). If you’re waiting, if you’re waiting towards mid day and again it’s Friday, so come on, think there; if you’re waiting towards mid day or even the end of the day to buy Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ), you’re giving up on this move, just like you gave up on all of these moves. This is not, by the way, a prediction, I’m not talking about, oh, buy Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ) the first thing in the morning and you’re sure to make money because the stocks going to move higher. No, what I’m saying is, if the stock is moving higher, you see the pattern, you see the pattern, it’s a money making pattern if the stocks moving higher in the morning. Jump, don’t be sitting there fretting and wondering like oh, should I get in or, well maybe I’ll wait and see if it keeps going. If you wait long enough you’re going to buy here, and then happily you’d buy here, you’d buy here, and you’d buy here. Fine you’d make a little money, but wouldn’t you have been better off loading up in the morning, then adding to that position, then adding to that position again and again; maybe even here. So by now you’d have a full position and have been able to enjoy the entire price appreciation of this stock rather than having armadillo arms and not really doing anything until there’s nothing to be done. So anyway, I hope that works for you on Apple ( $AAPL Apple Inc. ). Again members, get over to the Strategy Session. I’ve got a lot for you there on retail and various other sectors. Free Chart