Teucrium Wheat Fund (:WEAT)
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- MongosPawn: $WEAT Took a starter at the bottom of the channel. Looking for a bounce from here. Tight stop.
- ray: $WEAT $CORN $DBA Opened small starter positions in these. There was a fairly large fire (since contained) this morning at the port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea. This is one of Russia's largest ports in that area. After the Russia-Ukraine Black Sea Grain deal was not renewed last month, incidents of each country targeting ships and ports in the Black Sea has increased. I'm looking at this as potentially a short or intermediate-term trade.
- bhaden1: $WEAT For those interested in forming a long term, >1 year position, this looks like a smart move given the mess in Ukraine combined with blistering weather in the flyover states. I am in buckeye state now, so I am being flown over as we speak - not intended to be derogative to anyone! All of agriculture will most likely be good long term bets. Starter position, long.
- Francoise: @bhaden1 $WEAT do you like CRESY?
- maracom: Good morning all! I'm mostly in cash in my #trading account, although I have some $SDS and a $WEAT $7 covered call that is already in the money #LTA $NEM $FTI $DVN $CTRA $PAA $SCHW $FCX $MOS $FTI looking good, I'll probably add a weekly covered call at $16 $SCHW have a $56 Jul covered call on $FCX have a $59 Jul covered call on
- MongosPawn: $WEAT Still making hay. (sorry, couldn't help myself)
- MongosPawn: $WEAT Added. Great volume.
- MongosPawn: $WEAT Been perky lately. May close above the 50dma which it hasn't done since Feb.
- maracom: @MongosPawn $WEAT Started bouncing when the dam in Ukraine got hit which took 1/3 of Ukrainian capacity offline. It's one of the reasons I've been holding on $MOS despite the pain
- maracom: Hi all, at my #FTJ today, but I got the notification of my short $NVDA stop being hit at just about the same time as @Dan added it to the #ATL, really nice breakout from a squeeze. Was definitely wrong on that trade, c'est la vie. #LTA: Long $NEM $FCX $DVN $FTI $SCHW $MOS, stopped out of $WEAT #Trading: Long $WPM $PAAS I'm still short $TSLA, long $BITI $SH with a BeCS on $MSFT but with the fed announcement providing a potential bullish catalyst I may shut these down, they're all roughly flat.
- maracom: Good morning all! Happy that $FTI posted growing revenue and that $GDX is getting a bounce today despite a stronger dollar. Not seeing much to do today... #LTA $DVN getting close to my stop watching wearily. Was stopped out of half my $WEAT yesterday. Might have to give up on the rest today if the close is bad. $MOS also doing poorly. Long $FTI $SCHW $NEM. Watching $FCX for a lower entry. #Trading. Short $SH $TSLA $NVDA $BITI. Starters in $GTLS $PAAS $WPM. Long $UNG still in consolidation.
- maracom: Good morning all! #LTA Long $NEM $FTI $DVN $SCHW $MOS $WEAT. Glad I sold off $FCX, looks like I'll get a chance to reload at a lower basis at the 200sma. #Trading: Short $SH $TSLA $NVDA $BITI. I think I have the right idea overall for the next zag, but #bitcoin stings today although we're not testing 31k yet. Long $UNG, have a $GTLS starter. Taking starters in $WPM and $PAAS
- maracom: Good morning all! Minimal changes to my portfolio. I have 30% cash in my #LTA and 50% in my #Trading. Open to new opportunities but wary of headline risk. #LTA: $FCX have been legging out gradually, sold some covered calls on the pre-earnings move. Negative post earning reaction, so I'm down to just a starter position. Still bullish #copper for the long term, but looking for short term lower levels to establish a lower basis. $NEM consolidating. $SCHW consolidating. $MOS $WEAT $UNG waiting for a catalyst. $FTI up. Sold some $52 DVN puts (I #wheeled out of $DVN at that level, and energy is showing some strength) #Trading: $NVDA short. $SPY short via $SH. #Bitcoin short via $BITI.
- maracom: Hi all! At my #fulltimejob today so wasn't able to post but was able to make some trades. #Trading: My short positions are doing well. $NVDA rejected again at $280, BeCS will expire worthless, also short stock. Added more to $BITI. Opened $SH short $SPY which closed below the 8ema. Added to $UNG. $LTA: Bought back several covered calls for pennies $FCX $SCHW $BFLY. Long $NEM $MOS $WEAT $FTI
- maracom: Good morning everyone! $SPY $QQQ struggling after $NFLX. #gold pulling back hard today despite modest $UUP move. I've been buying $NEM which was much closer to support than the high flyers like $GFI $WPM. I've got one more buy left for $NEM but if $GFI and $WPM start pulling back hard I'll be a seller of naked puts. #LTA: $FCX covered call. $SCHW added yesterday. $MOS $FTI no changes. $WEAT pullback to 8EMA possible add. #Trading: Short $NVDA and 280/282.5 BeCS. $BITI possible add today. $SHOP stop at 8EMA. $UNG pullback to 8EMA/20EMA possible add. $BFLY covered call.
- maracom: Good morning all! News flow has been pretty positive and VIX is still heading down, so I'm trying a few short term bullish trades with low conviction. I'm also keeping some longer term bearish positions open as well. I've been buying the #gold pullback as well. #LTA: Bought $NEM twice (half a position), sold $NEM naked puts (half a position). Shaken out of $GOLD. $FCX, at half a position, sold covered calls on the last pop. $SCHW full position. $FTI half position no changes. $MOS half position. $WEAT half position. In 30% cash. # Trading: Following on the $SHOP trade. Closed $LULU short, she's looking pretty strong. Opened a $NVDA short at $280. Still short the 280/282.5 Apr BeCS, looking for this to expire worthless. $BITI half position. $HON BeCS closed for a loss. $UNG half position.
- maracom: Good morning all! Not seeing much that is actionable at the moment. I'm out of precious metals at the moment but eager for a pullback buy opportunity. I added to $BITI this morning now that bitcoin is tapping the underside of the 2021 summer pivot lows. I'm sitting in half cash, waiting for the next shoe to drop. #LTA $FCX been paring this down, currently at a 1/4 position. $SCHW full position, 1/4 covered calls, will sell more covered calls at $54 level. $FTI no changes. #Trading $UNG trading this one off the hourly chart, closed really well yesterday but now breaking yesterdays low, sold 1/4 position. $NVDA 280/285 BeCS staying below $280. $LULU short 1/2 position, flat. $BITI added, 1/2 position. #Tiny positions - $WEAT small starter just watching. $MOS small starter just watching. $BFLY $2.5 covered call
- maracom: @debeers $CF I have a little starter in $WEAT! Still in consolidation but starting to put in some higher highs and higher lows, similar chart to the fertilizers, looking constructive, may add soon
- maracom: Good morning all! No significant recent trades for me. I'm watching the $SMH action from the sidelines at the moment. #Trading: I'm out of $WPM $SLV which are still moving up with the weakening of the dollar, looking for a pullback. Long and positive: $WEAT $FTI Long and underwater: Long half a $BITI position, we'll see if Bitcoin continues attack 30k at which point I'll probably add more $BITI. $UNG just can't seem to find it's legs, might have to give up on it soon. $NVDA BeCS sold half, still have a few, watching. #LTA: $XOM $GDX $FCX $SCHW covered calls all of em.
- joelsg1: $WEAT Still working, in at 20d and moving towards 50d. Underlying commodity undercut normal channel range $8-10 as a result of overdone speculation due to Russian invasion but now reverting to mean. Still long.
- joelsg1: $WEAT Still working, and the colder and stormier, the better for this one. Long as posted.
- MongosPawn: @joelsg1 $WEAT $CORN with similar chart.
- joelsg1: $WEAT Working with apparent short covering, silver lining to terrible winter weather across Plains. Long with small add.
- joelsg1: $WEAT Took a starter above the 20d. If it holds, expecting short covering in the ETF and underlying commodity and will add.
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Rockstar: ...
So what do we do now. We continue our top down approach by looking for the strong indices ($DIA and $IWM) and then look at the ETF's that are performing, and ultimately the stocks within those ETF's. I am focused on the $DIA components, the $XLE,t ... - Docoof: @Rockstar $SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ $DXY $HYG $VIX $XLE $XLV $XBI $XLB $KO $KHC $TLRY $WEAT $PG $UNG $TMUS $DVN Helpful—Thank you, Rocky.
- vcondry: @Rockstar $SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ $DXY $HYG $VIX $XLE $XLV $XBI $XLB $KO $KHC $TLRY $WEAT $PG $UNG $TMUS $DVN thank you for the insight as always!
- RD: $WEAT $CORN Putin told Erdogan that Russia is ready to supply significant amount of grain, fertilizers to Africa for free.
- swingbound: @RD $WEAT S1 is 8EMAW , S2 is 20SMAW ..... test of the 50SMAW resistance in motion . np
- Rockstar: @scottrades $CORN Just posted a trade in $WEAT
- scottrades: @Rockstar $CORN $WEAT Gonna go to $SBUX later and buy the dip in $JO.....haha
- Rockstar: @scottrades $CORN $WEAT $SBUX $JO I wanted to get long $JO and will continue to look at it... Nothing yet....
- bigbartabs: @scottrades $CORN $WEAT $SBUX $JO ... It seems to me that any notion that Starbucks ever gets cheaper, is an oxymoron :)
- phgruver: @bigbartabs $CORN $WEAT $SBUX $JO Just a note on $JO, taken from their Prospectus: "THE ETNS OFFER EXPOSURE TO COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACTS AND NOT DIRECT EXPOSURE TO COMMODITIES OR THEIR SPOT PRICES. THESE FUTURES CONTRACTS WILL NOT TRACK THE PERFORMANCE OF THE RELEVANT COMMODITIES. " The emphasis (capital letters) is theirs.....
- bigbartabs: @phgruver $CORN $WEAT $SBUX $JO ... I think there are a lot of ETNs that use that or similar legal disclosure.
- RD: $WEAT Anyone looking at WEAT here given Russia backing away from the Black Sea grain initiative?
- swingbound: @RD $WEAT On the WEEKLY its up against the 50SMAW as hard resistance RHRN . The MONTHLY ( shown ) has it up against the first FIB Retracement level 23.6% . If it can overcome both and hold its presumably a tradable pivot higher . np . best of luck . Will
- RD: @swingbound $WEAT Thanks! Really appreciate it.
- swingbound: @RD $WEAT Welcome !
- vcondry: @RD $WEAT a convoy of ships is testing Russia right now...they are saying "F it" and making the trip...I dont think Russia fires on neutral ships in international waters...if they do... YOUR RICH... if they don't... $WEAT comes back down.
- RD: @vcondry $WEAT You’re right, I’ll wait for now and see how it goes. Thanks!
- mharps: @RD $WEAT I hVE BIT FRIOM LAST WEEK. vol was huge looking to get past about 9.25 but this is all political so who knows small position
- DavidM: $WEAT Up 5.5%. In a pretty clear upward channel.
- MongosPawn: @DavidM $WEAT Dipped my toe in $WEAT on Friday, trying a little $CORN too.
- Babutters: @DavidM $WEAT been long this for a month from what I considered a bottom and I’m bullish going into winter). Long March calls. Staying in until the chart looks to break down.
- chrismibs: $WEAT is active today, especially in the last few minutes.
- Babutters: @vitoB $SPY and very little vol on ^GSPC. Looks like mostly selling (and little covering). I don’t see myself adding to any stock no matter how we close. Just holding two: short $TSLA and long $WEAT. Both profitable overall.
- Babutters: If $WEAT can finally break and hold 8.88 could see more buyers. Long from below (APR calls).
- maracom: $WEAT Hitting my price target of $9, will probably close out @Rockstar's calls since we're starting to get closer to expiration and high theta decay territory. Closed half for $1.10 (30% gain) and will try to close the remaining half for a little more. Still bullish on the trade overall but will look to re-load on the trade with some longer dated calls
- maracom: I'm still pretty heavily invested. Came out down today but not by much. I've got covered weekly calls on $DVN, $APA. Solar held up fine $RUN $JKS. Ag remains in play $NTR $IPI $WEAT, still holding as it didn't really break support. The energy/inflation trade remains resilient. $RIVN is also bucking the trend, closed green while $TSLA is -4%. Days like today are super revealing for what's working and what isn't
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Rockstar: ...
Commodities like $WEAT (should have held) oil $USO, copper, and the like could have put in a double bottom. I will be looking to take some energy stocks again as those companies can still be very profitable with oil at these prices.
Based u ... - Cjauger: @scottrades Thoughts on $WEAT
- scottrades: @Cjauger $WEAT Trying to come out of a low choppy base. It's a bit loose. Seems to have support at the 50 Day. Not a "break out" here but decent short term volume, so you'd want to use the previous days low as your stop.
- maracom: @Cjauger $WEAT I still have Oct $8 calls, I'm looking for an underside test of the 9$ level/200 sma to cash them out
- agiaccag: @scottrades $WEAT I started a position when it bounced off the 50sma. I did not say anything in forum because it's not very "sexy" but it is making me money.
- Babutters: @scottrades $WEAT I have long March calls from a week ago. Doing well. They were cheap and risk is low.
- bigbartabs: $WEAT ... may be done going down... at weekly chart support
- maracom: @bigbartabs $WEAT @Rocky is long calls, I'm following his trade
- vitoB: @scottrades $SPY #certain #still only green on my lists other than short etf’s are dollar $WEAT $FSLR $SNOW $CSIQ and china pops. $APA (very close) so yes I agree on selective energy names
- champ: @vitoB $SPY $WEAT $FSLR $SNOW $CSIQ $APA #certain #still....I'm not looking for anything that is green....I'm looking for stocks that are turning off of their LOD's....... ..even some names is the $SPY sector, are moving-up a little off of their LOD's.... $LULU.....this is one of them, that could maybe recover,....1/2 of what it loss today, however I sure don't know what is going to happen today.
- vitoB: $WEAT sling shot engaged. Could take early entry with stop below yesterday but I’m waiting for 8.25
- scottrades: My notes: $SPY Time to Reset the Rally Count! $QQQ Downside Gap Fill $UUP Above the 8EMA $TNX Consolidating $QID Holding the 50 Day….sadly bullish $SDS Watch 49.50 $XLE Up today but not a clean entry $DBC Trying to firm up $WEAT Nope $SMH Not yet $IGV Low volume rejection at the 50 day. $XLK Low Volume pullback. $ARKK Speed Bump at the 50 Day $TAN Pullback at the 200 Day $KWEB Even China is pulling back today $AMZN Unable to get above the 50 Day $ZM Under the 8EMA $GOOGL Same $AAPL Same $TSLA Same $QCOM Still bumping against the 50 Day $AMD 79 needs to hold.
- sgiseller: $WEAT @scottrades seems to be hanging on the bottom Bollinger band , still a world wide shortage I assume. Not far from the level when russia invaded Uk. Thoughts
- Pokersmith: @sgiseller $WEAT Don't try to catch a falling knife. No touch till the technicals firm up or reverse in earnest ...imho
- scottrades: @sgiseller $WEAT Not my setup. Want to see a Green Day bounce...
- sgiseller: @Pokersmith $WEAT thanks for the feedback, guess I'm addicted to the blade
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DAN: ...
$WEAT -- Good trade for us. Now it’s just drifting
$HES -- STill trending ok. If it nears the 50-day MA…might be buyable.
$LYB -- this is why you don’t buy steep dives.
$T -- 10% yield. New uptrend.
- jonwest88: @DAN $ARKK $SPX $DJI $DJT $QQQ $XOM $APA $LNG $SBLK $GOGL $MATX $ZIM $EGLE $FLNG $PSX $VLO $MPC $DQ $BMY $WEAT $HES $LYB $T We do not see any stocks in the ATlist.
- Docoof: @DAN $ARKK $SPX $DJI $DJT $QQQ $XOM $APA $LNG $SBLK $GOGL $MATX $ZIM $EGLE $FLNG $PSX $VLO $MPC $DQ $BMY $WEAT $HES $LYB $T In reference to your note, just mentioning $CRAK, Oil Refiners ETF. Also, best performer (YTD) Refiner: $PBF.
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Cjauger: $WEAT
From Barron
Ukraine normally ships enough foodstuffs to feed 400 million people, U.N. World Food Program head David Beasley
estimates. Thirty-six different countries depend on Ukraine for more than half their grain imports. The top customer ... - dagdog: $WEAT Morning all. Why is $WEAT still on the Active Trade List? On 5/23 Dan sent a stop update and this one was at $11.45. It has hit that level every day since 5/24. Thx.
- dagdog: @dagdog $WEAT Guess it's off the Active Trade List now...
- bla00109: @Cjauger $WEAT Interesting. Thanks. The Economist recently had an article that both US and Canadian wheat production will fall due to drought.
- sgiseller: $WEAT Anyone still in this or buying on the 5% pullback today Wondering if actually still on active trade list, listed on one of 2 active trade ists on the site
- bla00109: @sgiseller $WEAT I just added to $WEAT with stop just under 50d MA - based on Dan's comment during today's trading session Zoom. China is #1 producer of wheat yet is a net importer of wheat. Furthermore, China's wheat production is forecast downward for 2022. "China’s agriculture minister said over the weekend that the country’s wheat crop conditions could be the worst in history after heavy rainfall delayed planting last fall." https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/top-producer-china-adds-global-wheat-jitters-with-poor-crop-health-2022-03-10/
- bla00109: @sgiseller $WEAT How do you see this?
- bla00109: @sgiseller $WEAT At this moment, I have a quarter position which I think may be stopped out. My thesis is that most major wheat producers are having production problems because of drought/heat - these producers include India(#2 producer in world), US (#4), and Canada (#5). My holding this is antithetical to the technical theme on this site and many of these thematic trades just don't work.
- Cjauger: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/28/putin-russia-ready-to-ship-grain-stuck-in-ukraine-ports Putin says Russia ‘ready’ to allow Ukraine grain exports. This is great news. This will impact the $WEAT trade. Futures are down 2%
- bla00109: $WEAT added as it appears to be entering phase 3 accumulation from May 10 VS. Small position with tight stop. Anyone else still in this?
- Cjauger: @bla00109 $WEAT I also added
- chrismibs: @bla00109 $WEAT Watching with alerts set at $11.64; currently NP
- gmj: $WEAT curling up on 10m chart, needs vol, been very patient with this one waiting for this bounce off the 20ma
- bigbartabs: $WEAT ... I'm surprised that this is struggling, with the whole world in such a mess with food sources / Ukraine...
- bilipi: @bigbartabs $WEAT As with $MOS they are struggling in their monthly charts and failing to make the pivots higher .
- bigbartabs: @bilipi $WEAT $MOS yes, exactly my point. Odd that this is happening with grain demand so high around the world. I'm a 4th generation Californian... from a family that homesteaded in the 1800s... which connected me with many other very long term families in Northern CA. Many ranchers and ag. I was just talking last weekend with one of my best buddies there about hay for our horses... which is now (shockingly) $28 a bale here in El Dorado County ==:O He said stock up on anything wheat based... it's not going to be pretty from here. Of course he could be wrong... but I think worth thinking about from a source that is in the middle of the entire ag business... cattle, hay, rice, strawberries... etc. Tens of thousands of acres... For what its worth... all the best...
- bilipi: @bigbartabs $WEAT $MOS I guess we are having the same thoughts ... right now the markets are not confirming a severe shortage thesis . Political solutions sometimes come at the oddest moments . Thanks for the update from Redwood land ... best , Will ( formally @snowbound )
- bigbartabs: @bilipi $WEAT $MOS ... ah yes, Snowbound. Every time I saw your handle... it reminded me of the decades of my life skiing and snowboarding... here in the Sierras, and where it all started for me on Mount Shasta up near the Oregon border. My closest ski spot now burnt up in the Caldor fire last summer... just east of us... on the summit into Lake Tahoe. Sad. They are trying to rebound... but it burnt their shop, equipment, and I think 4 of their chairlifts. Not to mention all the green that we used to enjoy. Be some time before all that comes back. All the best...
- bilipi: @bigbartabs $WEAT $MOS .. wow ... when I'm on a board there's water beneath me .... all I have to do is watch out for the skeg and the rocks ! It sounds like devastation to me .
- champ: @bigbartabs $WEAT $MOS ....the way that it works is, when the Price of Wheat is high, many farmers start selling their wheat supplies, that they are #holding in their Silos.......and that drops the price, so the price of wheat will zig-zags, daily and weekly. Farmers have Silos.......my Bother-in-Law, in Kansas has around 10 huge Silos, with a Rail-site on his property....and with one phone call, it could all be sold at the current price.... ....farmers that hold wheat supplies, are also wheat gamblers. Plus in Ukraine....they are #Trying...to move all of their Wheat-supplies, out of Ukraine, to their neighboring countries, many Farmers got caught holding their supplies, when that War started.....plus Farmers are now trying to harvest this years crop...in a War-zone,....try to figure that out.
- bigbartabs: @champ $WEAT $MOS #holding #Trying ... makes me sick what's happening in Ukraine. My heart really goes out to all those folks suffering there.
- bilipi: @bigbartabs $WEAT $MOS OK ... that's war ... gimme a couple months and I'll have some ammunition back at you . I got stuck in Wyoming and I haven't seen my house in years now but its almost Tama time ! ...... Tamarindo of endless summer fame . I know there is one floor awaiting a remodel and new kitchen which I'll work on between trading and mingling with the locals . It will be like camping in paradise for a spell ! Pura Vida !
- bigbartabs: @bilipi $WEAT $MOS ... yep... we did all that too (attached). Had to have a summer hobby :)
- bilipi: $WEAT ~ 12.44 = 38.2% monthly retracement level R1 to overcome
- bilipi: $WEAT monthly view of same
- bla00109: $WEAT India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and has had a heat wave that will reduce output for 2021-2022 by 4-5.7% (depending on the source). Indian Govt. has banned export of their grain, to meet domestic food security goals; although, they are honoring some pre-exisiting export contracts with countries such as Egypt. . I'm going to hold on to my small position in $WEAT. https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/05/india-bans-wheat-exports/
- Cjauger: @bla00109 $WEAT I bought some back today
- scottrades: $WEAT Back above the 8EMA. Swingers could use Friday's low as a Swing stop level.
- DAN: Stop Adjustments: $MPC -- from 85.10 to 89.50. This cuts our risk down while still keeping the stop below the extension of the 50-day moving average. I'm taking into account the time that will pass over the next few weeks. $ARCH - No change. Still at 147.50 $GOGL -- No change. Still at 13.40 $XOM -- Raised from 82.70 to 85.30. $APA -- No change. Still at 38.95 $WEAT -- No change. Stop remains at 11.45, which is break even and takes the risk out of the trade. $LLY -- No change. Still at 279.25 The breakout looks like it has some legs. $AVGO -- Stopped out. There are in negotiations to buy VMWare ($VMW). That's always gonna create selling pressure. $EGLE -- Stop remains at 63.65 See you in an hour. Training Session Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86989804351 --Dan
- Cjauger: $WEAT phase 2
- Cjauger: $WEAT https://apple.news/ARSvrH3BuQ7OeZCIKo1tHEg Germany's ex-ambassador to Russia says Putin wants to trigger famine A former German ambassador for Russia said Russian President Vladimir Putin is deliberately trying to cause a famine and refugee crisis, DW reported His comments come as food security experts warn that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated a global food supply crisis. One expert testified at the UN Security Council that the world only has 10 weeks of wheat supplies left in storage. Ukraine is considered the world's "breadbasket". Combined, Russia and Ukraine export about a third of the world's wheat, with many regions significantly, depending on those exports.
| Stock Price | $5.85 |
| Change | 0.52% |
| Volume | 1,014,930 |
The investment seeks to have the daily changes in percentage terms of the fund's net assets value per share reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of a weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts. The fund normally invests other Wheat Futures Contracts traded on the CBOT, the Kansas City Board of Trade, or the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, or on foreign exchanges. It also may invest in exchange-traded options on Wheat Futures Contracts and in wheat-based swap agreements that are cleared through the CBOT or its affiliated provider of clearing services in furtherance of the fund's investment objective.
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