Square Inc. Class A (NYSE:SQ)

Strategy Session March 19th, 2019

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  • michaelH: $SQ breaking support at 58.30 and now flirting w/ breaking further support at55.37. still short w/ buy stop at break even
  • CHOFF: @michaelH $SQ - what's your breakeven buy stop?
  • michaelH: @CHOFF $SQ $62.62; will move it down after the close; luv to free roll!
  • CHOFF: @michaelH $SQ - nice call!
  • michaelH: $NFLX covered my NFLX short for small gain . Will look to reload higher. Still short $SQ and $JWN
  • kt4000: starting a small position on $SQ under $60
  • shoredriver: @kt4000 $SQ ...why......
  • BocaRick: @shoredriver $SQ did you short it?
  • shoredriver: @BocaRick $SQ ....nope....
  • grcjr: @kt4000 $SQ - I believe you may be early if buying. it is below the 200/150/50/20 dma I believe in this company for the long run. Just not interested to trade except to the downside until I see some solid moves up.
  • michaelH: @grcjr $SQ fwiw I'm short. If it breaks 59 I will add, and plan to cover at 55 ish
  • kt4000: @kt4000 $SQ I am looking at a quick trade - maybe I wasn't clear - I added again @ 60.90 and plan to sell a little over 62.0 or take the hit if it breaks 59.75. I am long and this one is a quick (day or when it hits my targets) trade.
  • petros06: For those of you who use shorts, $SQ is rebounding approaching Dan's short call from Monday
  • kt4000: Trimming some $SQ nice moves... added $AMD on AMD's dip this morning - bought $FEYE - letting everything else run a bit.
  • michaelH: @petros06 $SQ looks a lot like $NFLX. Will watch for an entry somewhere closer to 69/70. Got stopped out of my last short $FB this AM for small loss. Also looking to reload $JWN
  • kt4000: adding small increments to $CVS, $CDNS, $AMD, $SQ, leaving my $APPL, $DIS alone for now.... looking for beaten down high flyers for the next drop .... I don't see anything yet, I would pick up no matter how small. Also looking for Pharma under $5 for one of my daughters accounts.... should anyone have a great suggestion.
  • DAN: $MTCH - Keep an eye on MTCH for a swing trade. Also looking at $SRPT, $SQ, $CDNA $HQY. Just a lot of stocks that are coming off the bottom of their ranges. No telling how much headroom there is, but the buying is strong.
  • Kasey: @DAN $MTCH $SRPT $SQ $CDNA $HQY Thanks, now I am staring at $CDNA. SO close to 50d and it hasn't dropped far below 50d past few times. Hard ceiling around $30. It seems like a good entry today for swing trade, with stop around $25.69?
  • PJMR11: $SQ Strong green today
  • CoyoteDuster: I'm not a swing trader, but one of my old low-ball limit buy orders triggered on $SQ this morning. I bailed out at 62.88 for about a 4% gain. Trading account is mostly cash, trying to sit on my itchy hands.
  • PJMR11: $SQ HOD
  • rachel: STRATEGY SESSION NOTES 121018 COTD: $AAPL – oversold rebound. Look for short term rally, within a more pervasive downtrend. Notes: You should be trading as if you had 25% of the money you really do. And then trade small. $SPX – dragonfly doji. Short term reversal. $DJI – intraday reversal. Look for rebound tomorrow. $DJT – oversold rebound. $MDY – rebound $IWM – rebound $NDX –higher low. Volatility: What is it? How do you know if a stock is volatile? Potential rebounds: $FIVE – support at 200-day MA. High volume. $INSP—inside day. $SQ – higher low. But this is setting up for a short if the stock rallies another day or two, and then falls. $LFVN – Two major intraday reversals in last 3 days. Looking like a flag pattern. $TWTR – Needs to tighten up a lot. $ISRG – swing trade off 200-day MA.
  • rachel: WEEKEND UPDATE NOTES 120718 COTD: $SQ – how many stocks do you see in patterns like this? Lots of distractions: Trade France Domestic stuff Budget/wall/shutdown Mueller stuff Be patient Remember – Is cautioned against getting off the sidelines. You’re looking for opportunity. Once in, you’re looking for relief. $SPX – wide box. Highest risk environment I’ve seen. $DJI – bad close. $MDY – lowest close this year. $IWM – also lowest close. Think we’re not entering a new phase? $NDX – high volume distribution. $T2115 – Widespread oversold conditions. $TNX—X Bond traders don’t think Fed is going to hike. $DJT – can’t hide here. $FDX – nope $UPS – nope $XLP $MKC $PG $XLF $GS $JPM $MS Stock Watch: None of these stocks work. $FB $AMZN $AAPL $NFLX $NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $LULU $OLLI $ULTA
  • rachel: STRATEGY SESSION NOTES 120618 COTD: $NIO – good action on a horrible day. $SPX – good intraday low. Might be worth another day of upside. Trade small. $T2115 – Reliable bottom. Very rare intraday reading…marks a tradable low. $DJI – buy programs kicked in at 11:30 am. All major index charts look the same. Swing Trading Now: $AMZN – 1700 today. Probably more tomorrow. $NVDA – oversold rebound Day 2. $NFLX – could have another good day. $AAPL -- $170 floor. $SQ – regain 200dma? $FDX – Watch $216 $UPS – likely to see more bounce tomorrow. $OLLI – why it doesn’t pay to hold over earnings. $ULTA – see $OLLI.
  • CHOFF: ...
    $SQ - yesterday took profits at $72. Tried to double dip today, didn't work...small loss.
    $CRM - today took profits at $144.20 on the turn. Watching for re-entry.

    I might buy a little into the close. Conditions were a little overbought in this rall ...
  • spmeyers: @CHOFF $billions $SQ $CRM someone needs to inform the Prez that tariffs are a tax paid by US consumers and businesses; he seems to think the Chinese pay them
  • CHOFF: @spmeyers $billions $SQ $CRM -- it's not that simple, but inevitably any response will end up politicized, so I'll pass. Point is, markets reacted, so defining the risk reward scenario is what matters. Risk mngt mode is on with bearish wedges appearing in $SPY. The smart thing would be to mng risk and wait for confirmation to follow vs predicting what happens next.... unless you have inside info, of which I do not.
  • Brian_M: Sitting and watching $SQ trade as if it was a 3X leveraged ETF.
  • Sher: Took profits on several call positions, early AM ($INTC, $MGM, $SQ) - Wishing I'd done the same with a few others, namely $CMCSA, $QCOM, $XLP & $VZ...
  • CHOFF: $SQ - I added some today at 68.85. Not an optimal chart buy frankly. I'm early and should've waited. However it is moving in tandem with other techs like NVDA, CRM, etc on the daily and I like the price point in $SQ better. I'm being rewarded but will promptly exit if it turns on news. Stops set at a profit.
  • Sher: @steve71 $GLNG $SQ $PAGS - Wow... you're recall is amazing - I don't even remember my trades!
  • BobbyG: $SQ Profit takers flushed out. Holding Jan 19 calls, moving stops up.
  • Sher: $GLNG; $SQ - New long positions...
  • steve71: @Sher $GLNG $SQ Sher, weren't you a $PAGS fan once? I was, and was stopped out. But one of my NYC sons says it is STILL a hedge fund darling, and they were recently adding. FWIW.
  • spmeyers: @BobbyG $SQ it failed at 20-day last time; I'd expect the same this time (until proven wrong)
  • BobbyG: @spmeyers $SQ Quite possible. My stops will lock in profits now, I am not in the business of being right :).
  • BobbyG: $SQ Somehow hasn't been mentioned. I straddled when it was flirting with the 200 DMA. Letting the winning side run now.
  • CHOFF: @BobbyG $SQ - I made $ in it a couple times between 64 and 70. I still hold some shares at 70.50. It's back above the 200ma. I'm long $SQ, assuming Apple Pay doesn't squash them eventually. Short term, keeping it on a tight leash with stops. I see that Square everywhere in small businesses. They now offer payroll services for employers too. I suppose they are trying to take a niche from $INTU and possibly $ADP and $PAYX. They're going after the "float" business while making their offering more sticky to customers in an attempt to increase retention while they grow. It's not as easy to switch to a competitor's card reader when your payroll is bundled at a discount with the $SQ card reader. Seems like a stretch, but who knows. I like the stock.
  • CHOFF: $SQ is chasing the 200ma. Less than a buck away. We'll see if it can break through resistance at $64 and make a run. Small position.
  • RedLeaf1: @CHOFF $SQ Here is an interesting tweet about option activity in $SQ, posted this morning by Will Meade: @realWillMeade: Buyer 4700 $SQ March $90 calls for $1.64 Way way out of the money bet on @Square with size Someone making a bet Square gets acquired in my humble opinion.
  • CHOFF: @RedLeaf1 $SQ - thanks
  • Brian_M: BTO in long term account $SQ and $PYPL at the open today. Might not be the low but couldn't help adding a bit of both at those prices.
  • CHOFF: $SQ - Added twice today. It has filled the gap down this morning from $55.83. Don't trust anything. Trailing stops are a must for me. Working well.
  • CHOFF: @CHOFF $SQ - Stopped out. Nice scalp for once. Volumes are lightening, my guard is up. Watching for possible re-entry at $62 but not without other techs moving in tandem.
  • jeffslm: $SQ - picking up a small amount here at the 200-day ma
  • rachel: ...
    $NDX – this is where the bottom fell out. Very likely to test low – and we don’t know the outcome of that test, so don’t guess.
    $FB – This stock is not getting cheaper. It is getting more expensive.
    YOY growth over l ...
  • issues: added to IBD 50 $CRL $INTC $SQ $TEAM Taken off IBD 50: $ALSN $CP $FOXF $GMED; added to IBD BIG caps $DVMT $CVS $HCA $NUE Taken off big caps $ABMD $ILMN $INTU $V We own only $SQ & $GMED We can't figure out why some are added while others are taken off. For example ALSN looks like a buy...
  • rachel: ...
    Note: Don’t let your impatience make you do what shouldn’t be done. Focus on shorter timeframes to keep yourself busy...OR, spend time studying your trades. If you spot one error that you are consistently making, it will be the best tr ...
  • DrScience: $SQ looks headed for the 200 DMA @ $64, but note the highest open interest is in NOV 75 Calls and Puts. Any bets on where the stock will be on Friday? Remember this is OPEX week and there's usually one day during the week when errant long trades can be exited more gracefully than RHRN.
  • WWWilly: @DrScience $SQ #OPEX, very true, thanks for the reminder.
  • barajelda: @DrScience $SQ what is opex and why would it impact $sq?
  • DrScience: @barajelda $SQ OPEX Friday is the regular November monthly OPtions EXpiration date. High open interest in certain option strikes gives clues about what traders/investors believe the stock price will/will not be on a given date, and have made bets accordingly. $SQ has high open interest at the $75 strike, so one could assume that a buyer/seller of those options would like to see the stock price above/below, exactly at, or nowhere near that level, depending on their thesis and positioning. And, market dynamics, as chaotic as they appear, actually have some underlying symmetry, so stock prices tend to gravitate toward the strikes with the highest open interest -- a process called "pinning" -- unless some overarching market dynamic overwhelms the individual stock price action.
  • JMickey: $qcom and $sq add to list for oversold bounce? @dan
  • Shopaholic526: $Z $SQ $WYNN Stopped out on $SQ and $Z. Profitable on $WYNN. Wouldn't hold any of them more than 59 minutes. Thanks, Dan.
  • CHOFF: $SQ - nice +7% pop from yesterday. I sold anticipating a drop over the lunch loll...but didn't get much of a dip. Back in with a very tight stop. Long-term my PT is above $100. ER today after the close.
  • woodman: $INSP - for me yesterday was a buy FOR earnings. Testing my luck again today with $ROKU which reports after the bell. Also have some $SQ that I am holding through. Earnings Roulette.
  • baronp0329: @grcjr Totally agree on the 59 minute trades, doesn't have to be only the first hour of trading! Like, you I've been busy with Options and had a very profitable trading day especially Nov Calls on $AMZN, $SQ, $PFE, $HAL, $NBL. Closed 90% of my trades a few minutes ago. Back to 87% cash. Good luck with your trades.
  • debeers: $SQ-NP but the trick with earnings is that the entity has to beat AND raise and SQ guided lower.
  • bsafriet: $SQ ref Briefing.com: beats by $0.02, beats on revs, guides Q4 eps below consensus (.12 - 0.13, vs $0.15),revs above consensus ($446-$451 mln vs 438.54 mln). Trading at 78.80 -$3.70 a/h's.
  • bsafriet: @bsafriet $SQ still up on the day.
  • DrScience: @debeers $SQ I must be reading the numbers wrong: *MW Square Q3 adj. revenue $431 million vs. expectations $414 million *MW Square adj. Q3 EPS 13 cents vs. expectations 11 cents *MW Square ups 2018 revenue, adj. EPS guidance BZ: UPDATE: Square Raises FY18 Guidance: Adj. Sales From $1.52B-$1.54B To $1.569B-$1.574B vs $1.55B Estimate, Narrows Adj. EPS From $0.42-$0.46 To $0.45-$0.46 vs $0.45 Est.
  • debeers: @DrScience $SQ -I was just reading from the Reuters release. It is now 1:55 pm Pacific.The latest print is 80.30 down 2.39%
  • grcjr: @baronp0329 $bigbartabs $AMZN $SQ $PFE $HAL $NBL And $AAPL $IBM. Even short time with $ADBE, $AMD, $ETSY, $MCD, and $SBUX. Still hold some of them despite my loose policy that big moves can turn down over night. Waiting for the next day can wipe out earnings .... I'd generally give up a gain over night vs a loss. I can always reenter in the morning if it looks profitable. (for SMM members: almost all my "trading" is with options so you might want to join OMM ... take a free trial. It will take time to learn but is worth it).
  • DrScience: @debeers $SQ Not questioning your veracity. Just trying to understand how the company could beat and still disappoint analysts when they (the company) raised full year EPS guidance to agreement with analysts' estimates. To say next quarter's EPS outl ...
  • baronp0329: @grcjr $AMZN $SQ $PFE $HAL $NBL $AAPL $IBM $ADBE $AMD $ETSY $MCD $SBUX I am a member of OMM since early 2018. I’ve learned a lot from @dan and @Bridget regarding options and risk management. Agree with you in locking most of the profits at the end of the day because I still do not trust the market. I would rather have realized gains today more than potential gains the day after.
  • Henry: @DrScience $SQ I don't get it either but it happens. It's not like it had a huge run up, in light of the correction. One thing I learned from Dan is that I am never smarter than the market in the short term.
  • bigbartabs: @grcjr $bigbartabs $AMZN $SQ $PFE $HAL $NBL $AAPL $IBM $ADBE $AMD $ETSY $MCD $SBUX ... I've been through OMM as well. But I was (and still am for the most part) too busy to really spend the time... so I decided to just use SMM. I'm terrible for having too many irons in the fire.
  • champ: $SQ...working on a upgrade.
  • champ: $SQ $BABA ...both working for now
  • Junior1: @champ $SQ Earnings tomorrow AH
  • champ: @Junior1 $SQ ---= That is what I have also... but I'm out for now...because of the election. Took profits...
  • rachel: ...
    The key to success is NOT losing what you’ve made.
    You are either waiting or you are sweating.
    $SPX – Four down days in a row. Cash is king.
    $DJI – holding up above 200-day, but that’s pretty thin gruel.
    $MDY – new clo ...
  • rachel: ...
    VIDEO ONE: This is a market to be very cautious of. Respect the downside; and respect the black swan. It exists. Highly unlikely that it’ll appear – but that’s the nature of black swans, right?
    $SPX – stabilizing.
    $FXI &ndas ...
  • rachel: ...
    $V – very good example of the entire market now. I don’t get to choose the market. I only get to choose what I want to do in the market that exists.
    $DJI – poor price action.
    $DJT – REALLY poor price action
    $CSX – grea ...
  • Henry: $SQ is up $6 in pm. possibly my best timed trading ever, I sold on the way down from $100 at 96 and bought back yesterday @ $71
  • indigo1948: @Henry $SQ - that is timing we should all be so fortunate to have - congrats.
  • debeers: @Henry $SQ -YAY you, H!
  • Ajax4Hire: @Henry $SQ Congratulation! Luck favors the prepared. Enid("E") from "The Incredibles" There are no accidents, only in-attentiveness. What a human calls an accident is simply failing to recognize the signs that were always there. The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence. Thufir Hawat, Dune Good Luck is no accident. Ajax4Hire
  • Henry: @Ajax4Hire $SQ Thanks everyone. It's good to blow your own horn once in a while. I haven't learned to sell at the open and SQ gapped, crapped and is coming back.
  • klarson18: on the 1 minute chart this morning, $SQ, $AMZN, $QLD all look like a cup and handle
  • grcjr: @Robert1965 $NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX - Trading in the after market (pre or post) just are too dicey for me. With the general weakness, I did not chase but there was little to chase. I did nibble AAPL and $STZ at the open. I was also ready to add to $AMZN, $NFLX, $JPM, $BA, $CRM, $SQ if we had a pop and run but I just did not find any.
  • issues: NDX up 164 rhrn. Looks like the market wants to bounce back prior to closing. Added $SQ! Starter in $SFM!
  • indigo1948: @issues $SQ $SFM - took a small starter position in $SQ this morning as I think the selloff has been overdone - fairly tight stop.
  • issues: @indigo1948 $SQ $SFM where's your stop?
  • indigo1948: @issues $SQ $SFM $ 71.20 - although that may be too tight with this one's volatility - -looks like a fairly strong close and will take another look over the weekend, Best of luck with your trades.
  • issues: @indigo1948 $SQ $SFM That's fine but recalling Dan's advice it could be as low as $65 or up to $68.75 (prior day's low...)
  • rachel: ...
    COTD: $SQ – a proxy for the entire market.  Short…with a tight buy-stop.

    VIDEO ONE:  

    Looked like short covering into the close on the indexes.
    Even good earnings and buyers take the stock right into supply.
    De-risking is a ...
  • kt4000: took a small position in $SQ yesterday and this morning - I have never seen a stock punished this badly.
  • kt4000: $SQ the second I sold the small position $SQ turned..... OK nuff said.
  • Forexpro:
  • kt4000: @debeers $SQ actually it was down 23% from the high prior to the announcement - which was a CFO not CEO - it then was taken down another 10% to 14% from where you count. anyway 34 points from top to bottom is a big hit - while I did not ride it - it seems as thought there were people who did.
  • debeers: @Forexpro $SQ -correcting as we speak
  • debeers: $SQ-@KT4000- How can you be surprised when the CFO of the co resigns, that the stock goes down??Baron told you why this one tanked, sir or ma'am.
  • BobbyG: Just been swinging straddles at the end of the day on the easy ones: $AMZN $SQ $GOOGL. Just trying to get some base hits, otherwise completely in cash. Probably the norm for another few weeks.
  • issues: $VIX high was at 19.86. When and if it hits 20 the bottom is near. I don't like getting stopped out at the bottom. I pulled a few of my stops. I will wait it out and buy when the day turns green, perhaps tomorrow!! Getting stopped out at a loss means I won't buy back for a month to avoid the wash sale rule. Stopped out of some very good stocks: $MSFT $UNP $EW $SQ $AMD $DDS $PRAH $TXMD $BSX Ironically $JWN is up on a terrible day!
  • steve71: @issues $VIX $MSFT $UNP $EW $SQ $AMD $DDS $PRAH $TXMD $BSX $JWN Interesting that $DDS is weathering the storm, today anyway. Could be buybacks. "Lesser shares buybacks due to soft cash flows are a concern. As of Aug 4 still has $497M of buyback authorization remaining under March 2018 program."- Zacks from mid-August.
  • baronp0329: $SQ Square Says CFO Friar Stepping Down to Accept Nextdoor CEO Offer, stock down more AH
  • RedLeaf1: @baronp0329 $SQ Thanks for the post.
  • woodman: $SQ battling at the 50 day.
  • kt4000: dumped $RHT too much pain on that one but added $SQ this morning
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Stock Price $USD 78.53
Change 4.34%
Volume 10,672,500

Square Inc is engaged in providing solution from payments and point-of-sale services to financial services and marketing services. It provides a free software app with its hardware to turn mobile devices into powerful POS solutions in minutes.

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