Strategy Session August 11th, 2016

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  • traderbren: $RH - looks to be coming off the bottom and getting a bid in this tape. NP, but would like to see it clear the 20d at 109.55ish
  • issues: Solar is IBD group #2. I bought $RUN & $ENPH since RUN is rated 93 (composite) B+ (accumulation) and ENPH is rated 93 B. I also bought $CVX (thanks to the forum family posts) and $XOP and $MEDP. Added to $LUV $NTNX $TNDM & $RH. That's a good day's work for me. Have a great weekend everybody!!
  • shoredriver: $RH...almost another4% ...or about 12% for the week ....so far.....not too shabby , and semi chub weeklies to sell....
  • shoredriver: $RH...inching back up...about6% over past couple of days....
  • traderbren: $RH - continues to get a bid .
  • shoredriver: @traderbren $RH ....Yep....loverly if would fill the gap.......
  • gmj: $RH done down ? bought for a trade tight Stop
  • mopick: @gmj $RH, am with you! Bought yesterday. Noticed that Cramer on his show last night pumped it up, as expected. He loves the company and the CEO.
  • traderbren: $RH - continues to get a bid.
  • shoredriver: ..$RH....looking to close @hod....
  • GOOSE: A TRADE: Slow day. $RH STO 4/5/19 99/95 BuPS @.55 ADDED to a 100/97 BuPS
  • cb: $RH New Pos RHRN Long
  • debeers: @cb $RH -out of curiosity, did you happen to catch the call?
  • mopick: @cb $RH, curious as well as to your thinking here? I,too, am intrigued, drop of over 30% seems a bit excessive. Love the stores, a tad expensive, however!
  • cb: @debeers $RH did not hear the call only trading the technicals .... up currently and watching closely. Was just thinking about asking you your thoughts , as I seen where you posted that you were going ti listen to the call... Could I get your take on that??
  • gwenzee: @cb $RH You can always go to a stock's website (Investor Relations) and go to Presentations to listen to the call yourself. Let's you hear the inflection in the voices which gives further color to what is being said. Highly recommend you do this.
  • cb: $RH Just exited my long pos for a 3 point gain
  • shoredriver: @cb $RH .. Curious.How did you calc that 3 pts.?....
  • cb: @shoredriver $RH i had 400 shares meaning I cleared $300
  • cb: @shoredriver $RH Not sure if I am using the proper terminology correct me if I am wrong Please
  • gwenzee: @cb $RH Based on that, if you had bought 400 shares @ $100/share and it went to $110/share you would say you had a 4,000 pt gain??? Just saying. Using the incorrect terminology can get someone in trouble. Be careful how use phrase things.
  • cb: @gwenzee $RH Thanks
  • gwenzee: @cb $RH Another hint. We don't specify the # of shares we buy or sell. Can use terms like: Sold all, bought partial position, added to, took some off the table, sold 1/3 position, etc. Reason is that some people have really small accts. and some have really large accts. We don't discriminate on basis of your net worth. Not everyone can buy 400 shares of a $100 stock.
  • shoredriver: @gwenzee $RH ...Thanks...sometimes I just......I'll leave it at that....
  • cb: @shoredriver @gwenzee $RH Thank you so much , so as going forward would it be proper to state a gain of $3 instead of points
  • Raos: $RH is so much outside of the bollinger bands. Shouldn't it adjust and move back inside? Could this be a play?
  • gwenzee: @Raos $RH If you attempt to catch a falling knife, expect a few cuts. Wait for it to show a green candle or two. Buyers aren't there yet.
  • Nepenthe: $RH Low in?
  • brice: @Nepenthe $RH -- I believe so and I am in as well. We'll see...
  • issues: @Nepenthe $RH Could this be just a small oversold bounce?
  • Nepenthe: @issues $RH That's what I'm wondering. I have a small position. If it doesn't move above 105.50 on volume, HOD--at which point I might add--then I'll probably vacate the store. I won't hold over only because tomorrow I'll be surgery and won't be able to track. Other than that, I don't know whether it's found a bottom, or, as you say, it's an oversold bounce. Just playing for a few shekels. Cheers.
  • Nepenthe: @brice $RH Keeping an eye on it. . .Cheers.
  • brice: @Nepenthe $RH Also looking for just a few shekels
  • debeers: $RH- Used to be call,ed Restoration Hardware but after last night's miss it should maybe change its symbol to DH as in Desecration Hardware. I didn't own any of it (mostly because Gwenzee wouldn't let me once it broke support) but i am going to listen to the conference call. You cannot decorate any house that has burned to the ground or been flooded out but the takedown of between 12-20% implies that something much more profound was going on.
  • Henry: @debeers $RH Someone told me their are a lot of new environmental restrictions on how a house has to be built now, in CA, is that true?
  • debeers: @Henry $RH --I'll check it out and get back to you, H.
  • Henry: @debeers $RH Thanks, meanwhile $RH is down below where it traded at it's low last night. I suppose if you are nimble you could have made $7 in the aftermarket, but that's not for me. You never know when the bots are going to read some comment that is not available to the trader and move the stock
  • GOOSE: A TRADE: Falling knife. $RH STO 4/5/10 100/97 BuPS @.70
  • bRobert: @GOOSE $RH I nearly lost a pinky toe to a falling knife.
  • Henry: $RH will be a bounce candidate tomorrow or in the next couple days. It has traded as low as 180 and change in ah np
  • shoredriver: ...$RH....Nice trading in after around core post drop to 108ish
  • Henry: @shoredriver $RH Nice, I'm on a run of buying these trades that don't go up, at least on a short term time frame.
  • shoredriver: @Henry $RH Here's to both of us ( and others) hauling in some dinero.......
  • baronp0329: Implied moves for earnings next week: $CRON 10.8% $CCL 5.3% $KBH 9.9% $FIVE 9.1% $RH 14.4% $HOME 14.0% $PVH 8.5% $NBEV 22.1% $LULU 10.9% $TITN 15.4% $LEN 8.7% $KMX 6.9% $PAYX 4.7% $SCVL 14.3% $CONN 17.9% $FDS 6.1%
  • mikespear: @baronp0329 $CRON $CCL $KBH $FIVE $RH $HOME $PVH $NBEV $LULU $TITN $LEN $KMX $PAYX $SCVL $CONN $FDS HI - thank you for your summary. I assume these are the moves the option market is pricing for? Are you doing any iron condor trades on specific stocks?
  • baronp0329: @mikespear $CRON $CCL $KBH $FIVE $RH $HOME $PVH $NBEV $LULU $TITN $LEN $KMX $PAYX $SCVL $CONN $FDS Hi Mike. Yes, the implied move is the % move that a stock price will go up or down based on a binary event (i.e. earnings report). Dan has a great tutorial video on how to calculate this subject. Go to the videos section and you should easily find it. No, I don't have any specific IC plans for next week's earnings. I leave the IC recommendations to @bridget or @dan.
  • shoredriver: $RH....Reports Tues after..Options implying 12% move...long.....
  • shoredriver: ....$WSM...beats, guides up increases divvie and buybacks..Might bode well for $RH next week......long$RH....
  • bRobert: $TGT Long Leap calls. Pin action in $COST $ULTA and others . $W /$RH short squeeze still working. Partials
  • bRobert: $W this short squeeze deserves a nice dinner with all the fancy trimmings. Long partial after profits. $RH Gets an invite too Another WEEKLY bo Still early
  • debeers: $BOOT/$RH-So today we supposedly learn that Europe is in disarray (like we didn't know that, already??) Guess who has no European and no India and no Pakistan and no China exposure??? Oh, That would be Boot Barn and RH and, as far as RH goes,
    only ...
  • debeers: $BOOT/$RH/ vs.$JWN-Here you go- for 1 year $BOOT up 62.2-% and year to date 66.65% JWN meanwhile was -4.8% for 1 year (even though DAN has been known to buy his peep toe high heels there on the twice yearly sales) and up only 2.10% year to date.
  • bRobert: @champ $XRT $BURL $COST $DDS $TJX $DG $ULTA $BBY $WSM $RH $W $PLCE setting up $ANF has possibilities. Many strong charts with upside.
  • champ: @bRobert $XRT $BURL $COST $DDS $TJX $DG $ULTA $BBY $WSM $RH $W $PLCE $ANF --- I agree but remember this stock has a #major reason, this is having a nice move into earnings....and could continue...the guess is, that they are going to beat just like $WMT and $TJX did.....that is the reason...to maybe pick this one, for a short-term move....ER run. However, I don't know about earnings on all the others.
  • debeers: $HD- As respects $HD the market said i'm wrong. Gave it the 2 i promised and still made a little but i've decided that i'd rather roll it into the $RH luxe play in the sector because these folks invest in their houses no matter what.
  • bRobert: @debeers $HD $RH $RH short squeeze 38% $185 target
  • Dale: @debeers $HD $RH Thanks for updating us
  • bRobert: $W Short squeeze continuing along with $RH Holding on trailing stops Pain consult for the trapped shorts
  • debeers: $MOH-down on the medicare for all hearings. Violated my rules so out and added to $RH today.
  • bRobert: $WSM nice base breakout today $66+ target 18% short 10d Reports 3/13 This could run np yet Would make a nice trio with $RH $W longs
  • riskmanager: @bRobert $WSM $RH $W How do you catch these? Do you run scans for breakouts? I am always late to the party so to speak. Thanks for your help in advance.
  • debeers: $RH-added to position at 149.96. Luxe play much more than housing play.LONG
  • bRobert: $RH . $185 . Wedge breakout in play still. ANOTHER short squeeze . 38% . 7+ days. This and $W . have worked very well for me as SPEC housing related retail. trades. Both huge short squeezes in motion. Trailers
  • debeers: ...
    If there is anything on any of my stocks,barring significant personal circumstances, you'll see it from me waaay before market opens as i am an early bird.. FD-LONG;$ BA, $BOOT, $CYBR, $NKE, $RH, $VLO, $XLNX.
    You will never learn anything from me ...
  • SAGCGP: @debeers $BA $BOOT $CYBR $NKE $RH $VLO $XLNX Wow thank you for a candid snapshot of the room. I am hoping to contribute as well. At this point, I need to get the lay of the land and checkout the posts from the sources you mention.
  • debeers: @SAGCGP $BA $BOOT $CYBR $NKE $RH $VLO $XLNX -You are entirely welcome. I ask for help after i've done my homework. when i post, i try to give you the why i like something and why is better than others in its class. If there is anything you'd like to know about the co's i've mentioned, let me know. i am a big believer in performance. i'll let the others take chances on a turnaround co.
  • debeers: $RH-No Europe, No worries, up again. Because, say it with me: "people with money have more money than people with no money." With discretionary stocks they make money when their target customer is either really well to do or feels so much better that they just wanna buy something for which they have been drooling. See how this works? On one side there is $RACE and $RH and on the other side there's $BOOT. No big secret and people always make this stuff much harder than it is. Common sense, as in any enterprise, is always your best asset. (same is true with $CYBR/$XLNX. $NKE, $BA). OT-I said that to a friend of mine the other day and he said that common sense is a lot more rare than one would think.
  • bRobert: $W . My last order must have put them over the top. 27% . short 11 DTC Long and holding .with tighter stops . Partial profits. $RH . also holding . Housing /retail . pin action stocks.
  • bRobert: $RH . 38% . short 7 Days TC . This is getting ridiculous Zoom out to the WEEKLY , my favorite. This W, awkward cup , has a $180+ MMT Long for a while. A massive short squeeze could really get this moving fast .Hang on tight A . 3 point safety belt a plus in order to deal with high G forces
  • debeers: @bRobert $RH -strapped in Baby.. Lotsa cash and Friedman owns over 50%, Vanguard owns a slug as does BlackRockso anyone wanting in almost always has to pay up (and they should).
  • debeers: @bRobert $HD $LOW $RH $LOWS $DSW $BOOT --Only 25% of $RH is available to the public.
  • bRobert: @debeers $HD I own all but $LOW 7.28% + $ HD 4,25% $RH 8.25% WEEKLY result The $LOWS options I sold went through the roof . They are very cheap, liquid with small spreads. $HD similar $RH expesive, illiquid, wide spreads Both with WEEKLY MACD crosses BOTH going significantly higher Have a great weekend! Go to $DSW or $BOOT and get yourself a nice pair of ruby shoes .
  • debeers: @bRobert$RH vs $LOW -OR you could own RH which manages to outperform the others handily Long RH. Of the 2 I'd rather own $HD and i guess i'm in the minority but that's my druther and i'm sticking to it.
  • bRobert: @debeers $RH $LOW I've been in RH from triple bottom low. Both have great bases with upside. RH wedge $170s higher % move more likely. Both will work. $LOW cheap options with tight spreads.
  • marrit: @debeers $HD $RH good morning, lechaim for cybr!!!
  • debeers: $HD/$RH for bRobert- facts and hips don't lie so just in case anyone wants some they are these:
    Home Depot for 1 year the return is 4.9%--for 3 years the returns are 73%. Is there anything wrong with that? Nope
    RH-formerly Restoration Hardware - the ...
  • bRobert: @debeers $HD $RH Again I own all 3 in different proportions. I use options and can make a mountain out of a smaller move with a nice chart and bullish price action the outweighs the underlying % move in the stock. Very liquid options with tight bid/ask fills is $$$. I hold $RH , I trade $LOW $HD for now. I have held HD at times for a multi year period .
  • bRobert: @debeers $HD $RH eg I have a CALL spread in $LOW that is extremely lucrative and will close out soon. The trade was set up accordingly with very cheap spread costs that are up over 300%. My returns from $RH will likely be far less
  • debeers: @marrit $HD $RH sold most of mine yesterday. Idiot move when it violated the T line. I should have known that Newton Mass which is part of Chestnut Hill where i grew up , wouldn't let me down. I toast you and will rejoin on any pb although i expect nothing huge because they rocked it! Le Chaim to you and no challah for me tonight!! If i were a pup, i should be smacked on the nose for panicking on a great stock. Good on YOU
  • debeers: @bRobert $HD $RH $LOW ----you are probably right. You manage many more positions than i do. Why are you still here today unless you already bought your wife a magnificent V day present?
  • debeers: @marrit $HD $RH ----re: CYBR. i paid dearly to get out of most of mine whenit violated the T Line.Shame on me
  • bRobert: @debeers $HD $RH $LOW She is a well kept woman. I hate nationally scheduled affection days I play along. But I much prefer bringing home tokens of my love on a no name day for no reason except the obvious.
  • marrit: @debeers $HD $RH Sorry to read that. In any case the challah is on me. Sshalom
  • debeers: $RH-cannot stay today but thought you all would want to know this: @DAN always says-who is behind you when you invest?
    Vanguard, hardly a cheerleader type of co., has a 12.93% stake in $RH.
    BlackRock, smart and opportunistic, now owns 13.41 % of the ...
  • debeers: $RH-Consider Wayfair and their competition with Ikea. Consider that there really is a whole lot more competition on the low end than the high end. LONG RH
  • debeers: $RH- No one has told this luxe retailer that the economy is going to slow down. Just as the gorgeous mansions in the wine country got smokefied, the Napa store opened to help the wealthy restage their homes. I am expecting a huge beat in March. This isn't a furniture store--this is whole room design. You don't go there to see if you can get a sofa or a loveseat. You go there to create an atmosphere. I ask you, does anyone really need the 200,000 Lamborghini SUV? Really? No of course not. Upper end retail is about want and invidious distinction. Without it how could you possibly tell the haves from the have mores?
  • bRobert: @debeers $RH $W . The less luxurious online retailer too
  • debeers: @bRobert $RH $W - I bow to your expertise but frankly-- RH is to W as Estee Lauder Sumptuous Extreme Lash Multiplying Volume Mascara, 0.27 oz. for $27.50 is to Maybelline--- In other words, not so much. One is in the Penthouse, one is in the outhouse.LOL
  • woodman: @debeers $RH $W - Your description of the mascara *almost* makes me want to try it on. (And if I do try it on, no one here will know -- just sayin'.) I know nothing about $W, except that their advertisements make me want to vomit and/or smash my TV, but strictly from a chart standpoint, it's (ironically) putting in the right side of a huge "W" pattern. Chart pic: https://www.screencast.com/t/SFz7qtesYRxA All for what it's worth.
  • debeers: @woodman $RH $W -You have such gorgeous lashes you don't need mascara. I got some end tables for the den from W-never again. the directions for putting them together were translated from the Chinese and they were backwards..
  • woodman: @debeers $RH $W - LOL! I can't read Chinese backwards or forwards ;-)
  • bRobert: $OSTK . along with $W . $RH . 2x normal volume $27.50 . measured move target Neckline $20 Short interest is 56% . 10d to cover
  • veghead: Thanks for your updates.@debeers $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $BEAT $HD
  • bRobert: @debeers $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $RACE $BEAT $HD Beat had a really healthy day. Pullback to test breakout bought. Pause that refreshes. Green from here can be bought $HD . $LOW . healthy day 2. Played hooky. $HD is a really nice setup . above $180 neckline
  • gmj: @debeers $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $RACE $BEAT $HD Thx for mentioning $BOOT this morning , in early and up 7% on the day.
  • debeers: @veghead $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $BEAT $HD -you are entirely welcome.
  • gmj: @debeers $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $RACE $BEAT $HD Thx for mentioning $BOOT early this morning , I got in early and am up 7% on the day. Thx again.
  • debeers: $BA$BOOT/$RH/$SOXL/$NKE-/$RACE-pretty much ok. $BEAT not so much.LONG ALL Replaced $HD with $SOXL which i absolutely hated to do With 10 mins to go, in addition to our wonderful military heroes, there is an additional meaning to boots on the ground. $BOOT up over 8.90% today.
  • bRobert: @gmj $BOOT $RH $SOXL $NKE $RACE $BEAT $HD @debeers literally gave you the $BOOT.
  • debeers: @bRobert $RACE -No stopping high end: Estee isn't Maybelline, $RH isn't Bob's discount Furniture, Ferrari isn't Nissan.
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Stock Price $USD 140.40
Change -1.13%
Volume 328,879

Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc operates as a luxury brands in the home furnishings marketplace offering furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, decor, outdoor and garden, as well as baby & child products.

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