Strategy Session June 2nd, 2020

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  • debeers: @DAN $X $MSFT Agree. And, China intertwined will be down the most. Thanks for the advice on the $NUGT last week from scotty. regarding the $RH- i sold mine as well and think we get another bite of the stock down at least another 12 or so. Gold now looking for around what 1700?
  • debeers: $RH-thought 220 would hold it didn't. When wrong gone.
  • debeers: $NAIL-Sometimes you're the hammer but sometimes you're the $NAIL. Can't decide how to play it, well, there's no place like home.LONG $RH- Marching on---thanks Uncle Warren. he adds, i add--he sells, i sell. How easy is that in my opinion?LONG
  • jlutzkanin: @Wykeman $GSX $SPCE $INMD $TSLA $RH almost 4%
  • shoredriver: $RH...some perkiness.......
  • DAN: $RH -- breaking out of a multi-month base today. I read a story in IBD over the weekend about Warren Buffet increasing his position in the stock. This might bring in buyers at the open, but it's not enough to really break the stock out. You'd need more institutional buying to sustain the move. As you know, I've been covering this stock pretty regularly over the past month or so. It's more of a longer term hold in my view.
  • Mounty: @shoredriver $RH Berkshire increased holdings
  • shoredriver: @Mounty $RH ...yep posted that last week.....
  • debeers: $RH-So Berkshire Hathaway, before Valentines Day owned about 7.5% of $RH. On Valentine's Day, Uncle Warrent picked up another 1,708, 348 shares andnow owns another 9%. Is there a downside to the company? Well, the last catalog i got weighed about 12 pounds so maybe the immediate danger, if you dropped the next one on a foot is a broken toe in my opinion.Again, the best news is nuthin outside the USA and a clientele whose focus is hardly "how much will this cost me?"
  • mopick: @debeers $RH, am with you on this one! Was in Corte Madera last week, their headquarters, where they're building a new showroom/restaurant. Very impressive, huge!
  • bogiedog1: @debeers $RH Agreed, definitely promoting a lifestyle. Their big stores actually host events too. Glad I got back when it popped above the 50 day a few weeks ago.
  • shoredriver: $RH Uncle Warren ups his position.........
  • debeers: $RH-Is down because the home furnishing (mattress, low end furnishings) are down. Consider that $RH is not duplicatable by . $AMZN although almost everything else is. When its down a few, it has always paid off to add as few--not a lot-- but just a few because neother Amazon nor Target are high end home furnishing stylists. The folks who don't get that $RH isn't really about home furnishings alone don't get it because it is experiential. I assure you that the Jeff Bezos's of the world, and Jeff just bought a 165 million dollar estate property in Southern California to "treat" him self and his new lady will nmot be furnishing his home with Wayfair. He said he wants to feel wonderful when he goes there. I bet Gary Friedman is all over this like whiote on rice.LONG. and all United States.
  • Nepenthe: @debeers $RH $AMZN Didn't last long; now green again. Thanks for being on top of this. I appreciate your informative posts. Cheers.
  • debeers: $RH- Info so you know who is behind you:-These hedge Funds All have ownership of at least 5% of $RH stock Berkshire Hathaway BlackRock FMRLLC Renaissance Capital Susquehanna Vanguard- Loved to see this oneas its by far the most conservative one. So in a bad day, these guys are right with you.
  • debeers: @Nepenthe $RH $AMZN -Thanks to you as well for suffering through my long nails that cause inevitable typos.
  • Tango: @debeers $RH @Debeers, you left me off the list! I have three shares.
  • debeers: @Tango $RH --so sorry Tango. you must have at least 5% of their stock to qualify.......LOL
  • debeers: ...
    $KBH- I wanted to adopt a barbellapproach to homebuilding...to take $RH on the high end and $KBH on the low end. My thinking is that,at some point in time, families will be formed even though theyare taking place later. Eventually, both parents and ...
  • Mikev200: @debeers $KBH $RH Does anybody else have some posts ( this one right now) come through 2x/3x?
  • bigbartabs: @Mikev200 $KBH $RH ... someone on the forum posted some time back... that when that happens... refresh your browser. Not sure if it works. I also think that if you make a post... and you see your post posting multiple times... that its just you that sees the multiple posts. Maybe others can comment as to what they have seen.
  • Mikev200: @bigbartabs $KBH $RH Thanks for that. Yes, I've tried that, plus clearing cache. I did email Karen who suggested reloading my browser. I would think if it was a browser issue it would happen all the time. It seems to be certain posters and only on occasion. I'll just deal with it. Thanks again.
  • AlexJFraser: @bigbartabs $KBH $RH I have seen mine lost multiple times and have seen other people’s multiple times
  • BocaRick: $RH above 241
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- High is 243.67. Still in Phase 1.
    $SHOP -- Great earnings. Massive volume. Selling all day...but eager buyers. Needs a big rest.
    $IBP -- Watch this tomorrow morning. Alert $77.10
    $BBY -- Could tighten up a bit more...but might work on a b ...
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- High volume today. Resistance at $230. Alert $229.0
    $ROKU -- Squeezing below 50-day MA. Earnings on Thursday, which makes this risky.

    $GOOGL -- Breakout from 1500 today. Would look for 1570.
    $WORK -- IBM deploying it to all employees gl ...
  • Nepenthe: @DAN $RH Checking to see if we're on the same wavelength. I added a bit today but what makes me slightly nervous is the distance from the 200ma. I know you've mentioned 240-50 as possible price targets. That's it. Cheers.
  • gaurav.ag77: Hi, I am a new member and need some help, I am not getting price alerts notifications which @Dan sets up in his videos like that in $RH, although I checked that my profile has price alerts checked, is there something I am missing? Thanks
  • gwenzee: @gaurav.ag77 $RH Are you using TC2000?
  • bknpdx: @gaurav.ag77 $RH In TOS, in the trading tab/screen you can right click the price and set an alert.
  • DrScience: @gaurav.ag77 $RH Check your spam folder. Sometimes, price alerts get routed to the round file.
  • Nepenthe: $RH $CRWD Two breakouts, one seemingly successful, one failing, but perhaps filling the breakout gap, and now tentatively moving north, at which point I got back in with a small position, with LOD as reference for a stop, and will see how it plays out for the rest of the day. Any objections? Cheers.
  • baronp0329: @champ $SPY $QQQ $IWM #always #surprise Nope, you are definitely WRONG! I was not excited about low volume Up day. Had an excellent Day trading session with $WORK Options (118%-505% profits ) and longer term holds in core stock positions ($AAPL $MSFT $RH $UNH...). But I need to see volume along with price for confirmation.
  • champ: @baronp0329 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $WORK $AAPL $MSFT $RH $UNH #always #surprise --- You were pleased but you think others were excited, now I understand, #Thanks for clarifying.
  • baronp0329: @champ $SPY $QQQ $IWM $WORK $AAPL $MSFT $RH $UNH #always #surprise #Thanks Yes, exactly. Too many exuberant traders today that have that FOMO mentality. Today, I'm seeing many Green to Red stocks so I am not adding new positions to core stocks. Just Day trades for now.
  • champ: @baronp0329 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $WORK $AAPL $MSFT $RH $UNH #always #surprise #Thanks --- Yes, you said.... too many exuberant traders today, maybe they are just day-traders, like you and I and everyone else. That is exactly what Day-Traders do, they trade, In and Out, for profits.
  • DAN: I am having major internet issues in my area and it's doubtful that I'll be sending out a video tonight unless the issue is fixed soon. However, here are the notes that I typically post in the forum. I apologize for the inconvenience.

    $SPX - Uptre ...
  • DAN: ...
    COTD: $RH - breakout in progress.

    $SPX - Uptrend intact, but looking a bit tired today (see below)
    $DJI -- At resistance.
    $QQQ -- high volume gap and rest today. Under VWAP all day.
    $FFTY -- Still in range.
    $MSFT -- High volume reversal. Due for a ...
  • Nepenthe: $RH Looks promising within the channel set-up, now back above the 50ma, fwiw. Cheers.
  • bogiedog1: $RH Making that breakout we were looking for a few weeks back.
  • Nepenthe: @bogiedog1 $RH And volume seems higher than normal. Cheers.
  • bogiedog1: @Nepenthe $RH Boom! yea, more volume coming in now.
  • Scruffy: @bogiedog1 $RH This almost has to be short covering. With 25 - 30% short, this could continue.
  • DAN: $RH breaking out of squeeze. The real resistance is at $240 from December
  • baronp0329: @DAN $RH Hey Dan, you (SMM) and @bridget (OMM) posted on $RH one minute apart about a squeeze move..."like minds...". Long term hold on since late July / ealy Aug 2019 on core position with $RH
  • Reif99: Some breakouts and some fakeouts today. $COST and $SDC fakeout, $ALNY, $DXCM, $PODD, $RH breakout. $TNDM kind if a breakout out of a sloppy set up. As usual recently, $QQQ leading, $SPY second, $IWM lagging badly
  • champ: @Reif99 $COST $SDC $ALNY $DXCM $PODD $RH $TNDM $QQQ $SPY $IWM --- $SDC, has been doing this daily, pops just about every mornings, see the last 8.
  • debeers: $RH-$RH=LONG FORM;-If there is one thing that fundie folks absolutely hate it is overpaying for anything and today someone called me and said,
    "How can you pay in retail for a stock with a 28% p/e when you could buy a Walmart?" i gently po ...
  • Firemedic: @debeers $RH Thank you very much for the detailed analysis of this company. I get there brochures but did not know the extent of their business model.
  • debeers: @Firemedic $RH -glad i could help. The way i look at it, considering what the hedgies own and what Friedman owns. There is less than 40% of all the shares available to the public.
  • debeers: @Scruffy $RH -The majority of short coveringcomes after earnings by folks who don't get what they do or how they do it.
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- High volume today. Resistance at $230. Alert $229.0
    $ROKU -- Squeezing below 50-day MA. Earnings on Thursday, which makes this risky.

    $GOOGL -- Breakout from 1500 today. Would look for 1570.
    $WORK -- IBM deploying it to all employees gl ...
  • DAN: @baronp0329 $RH LOL. Bridget is on top of her game!!
  • Mitchell: ...
    $RH - spiked over 5% on heavy volume as shares now are back near the top of the $205-$230 trading range. Earnings aren't due out until next month.

    $SHOO - down $8 from the November highs with the stock nearing a pullback to the 200-day SMA and prio ...
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- Still squeezing. Do not guess. Wait. Alert $224
    $SDC -- IPO stock. $15 resistance. Close to breaking out. Watch it and don’t predict.
    $TTC -- lesson: lower high. Losing momentum. Earnings 2/20
    $GNTX -- Back at support.
    $PFSI -- ...
  • shoredriver: $RH...minor perkiness......
  • Ringo: @DAN $RH-Do you think we can start a position on this?
  • michaelH: $PRFT $INFO $FB Taking partial profits in these and more; out of $RH and $HD; not buying the dip, tightening stops. As Mohamed El Erian said this morning on CBNC "This time is different"
  • issues: @michaelH $PRFT $INFO $FB $RH $HD Mohammed knows. He is the prophet. Or is he a profit?
  • issues: I am not Mr Citron nor Mr Left but I have shorts on these: $CLDR $CUK $LSCC $RCL $RH $SYY $TSM $URI $VIPS $YUMC. I have only 25 shares of each (total $10K) with buy stops in place. So far only positive is $RH. I would have shorted $LK but Ameritrade has no shares left to short. Oh well.... I guess it maxed out on shorting.
  • issues: ...
    Other shorts we having include $WWE $RH $CLDR $TSM $VIPS (all with TS of 3%). I don't expect to make much but it gives me something to do as the market goes down.

    There was an expert guest on Maria Bartaroma's show named Niles. Perchance you saw it ...
  • Hemal: $RH Just FYI seems to breaking down below 50sma at 50% higher than average volume (Considerably up than 200 sma about 35% so may correct further) It is currently on GSL
  • Bogeyboy: @Hemal $RH I had a fairly tight stop set. Stopped out this morning. I am not taking any significant losses. Seems like market has lost some mojo right now.
  • Trendrider: $rh supporting on the trendline that dan spoke about last night.
  • antfarm: $RH Stopped @ 211.50
  • DAN: ...
    I see a lot of the good stocks weakening today. $RH is now below the 50-day MA.

    $AAPL is hanging in there, but it needs to rest. $AMZN is also hanging tough...but I doubt it's going higher for a while, and might pull back a bit. $MSFT had a bi ...
  • debeers: $RH @trendtrader & @DAN --so grateful to you, @DAN on this one. The small dip of about 40 cents below the limit you set . i think it does follow the trendline and i'll be staying in this one---nary an earnings miss for the less important Gary. LONG
  • mopick: @debeers $RH, really disappointing action in this stock. Was suspicious why it couldn't sustain any move above $220, now below the 50 day. Consumer sentiment high, housing strong, yet this stock acts poorly. Debating whether to bail and live another day.
  • issues: @debeers $RH Thanks for your note. I shorted RH with a 3% ts. I also shorted WWE with a 3% ts!
  • DAN: Today in the forum I posted my thoughts on the current market environment. I decided to send this out in an email because I don't expect all members to be logged in to the forum during the day.

    11:13 AM

    @Dan Pretty weak m ...
  • DAN: I'm removing Restoration Hardware ($RH) from the Growth Stock List. We just pout the trade on the other day and the stock is breaking down below the 50-day moving average. If we had a profit on the position I'd be more inclined to just ride through the pullback. But we don't. And because we don't have a profit cushion, I'm not going to risk further loss on the trade. Remember...you can always buy it back. And I will be watching it and waiting for a better opportunity. Sorry this isn't working out. --Dan
  • indigo1948: @DAN $RH - I do not see any reason for any apologies as you provide advice, coaching and judgment calls. I believe all members are capable of independent thought and as you have said over the years-this is not “trade along with Dan.” Since I have been at this for over twenty years I will repeat what I am sure many will or would say-your produce the finest web site I have ever been involved with-thank you. I did buy $RH at $209.74 and will hold it with a fairly tight stop. I believe the sun will come up Monday-not in Chicago where I live but definitely in your state. All the best.
  • cb: @indigo1948 $RH Well said, Agreed.
  • debeers: @DAN $RH -the levels you set were more than fair. Thanks!
  • Nepenthe: @DAN $RH In trades such as this, I always hearken to your admonition about opening "small" positions, especially in mid-congestion, or mid-consolidation, or, well, whatever. Too bad, so sad, we move on. Cheers.
  • debeers: @indigo1948 $RH -Didn't catch it where you did but close at 210. I'd love it to close at or above 211. My reason for patience with this one is that i think its a lather rinse repeat--peeking over our shoulders is Warren Buffet who sold a portion of his $AAPL stock to buy $RH so in a way that is a second level of support. The goal is always to be in for earnings so we'll see.i got in with 1/3 of the position i want to have by the time of report.
  • debeers: @issues $RH -there were stocks i kept and still down. Coulda been worse. i want to dosome homewok this weekend on another financial that will do well but not prepared yet.
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- off the list at $210.25. Basis: 221.30. Early was wrong. Took a 5% loss. Stop was at 203.10. Not going to ride this down.210.25
    $RGEN -- Still going strong. Stop at 93.60
    $PRFT -- Still going well.
    $INMD - This has a while before it will ...
  • debeers: $DHI/$TMHC/$GNRC/$RH
    This am-premarket we learned that while consumer spending on stuff has gone down 1/4%, consumer spending on ...
  • rob27: @debeers $DHI $TMHC $GNRC $RH I guess you consider it a 5 on 4 pp
  • CraigReynolds: @rob27 $DHI $TMHC $GNRC $RH I've seen a 5 on 4 Not working several times in hockey, especially with my Bluejackets.
  • Henry: @Sandra $RH don't think so, not many buyers and not many sellers means consolidation to me.
  • DAN: $RH -- solid support this morning. Stop would be just below $215.
  • genki: @DAN $RH Hi Dan, yesterday the stop was 203.1. Should it be raised?
  • puttz: @DAN $RH In @217.75 and happy so far. Would it be possible to suggest when to add to a positions on our GTL? Many of us don't go all in when the stock is put on the list. I realize this may not happen on every stock.
  • DAN: @genki $RH I think that the highest it should be raised is just below the intraday low on 1/27 (which was $213.01). Maybe $212. That's a pretty tight stop and you're doing it because you believe that $RH will hold above the 50-day moving average. That's what I'd do.
  • sniper: in $rh starter thanks @Dan
  • genki: @DAN $RH Thanks!
  • antfarm: $RH Took a nibble. Thanks Dan.
  • DAN: ...
    $RH -- good support. Stop just below the 50-day MA. As noted yesterday, I expect this stock to spend time at these levels for a while. Alert $225 and $214.
    $FB -- buy the bounce
    $TSLA -- revenue decelerated. 2019 EPS: +.02/share. 2020 estimates: ...
  • DAN: I'm going to add $RH to the GSL with a cost basis of $221.30 (current price), and a stop down at $203.10 (which is about 8% below current prices). The basis for the stop is the Jan 13th intraday low of $203.15. That price should NOT be undercut...b ...
  • snowbound: $RH Nadda bad set-up . 221.12
  • debeers: @DAN $RH @DAN-well that makes a lot of sense in my opinion and there is a lot of time for it to ply out with easrnings not until 3/26
  • DAN: ...
    $RH at $221.30 Stop 203.10. Look for a test of the 50-day MA.
    $IIPR -- Raising stop to 89.90. Keeps us in the trade for very little risk. Still going. Look for $100.
    $RNG -- previously stopped out. Still going.

    PM Earnings:
    $MSFT -- beat esti ...
  • debeers: $DHI/$GNRC/$$RH/$TMHC-And so it came to pass that Dorothy, seeing the Fed wasn't gping to do a damn thing this year and business sentiment was up, and folks wanted to have families, and others were actuallly sick of living in the apartment next to the rock band drummer or (worse yet still, in their folks basement) said to hersef "there's no place like HOME. There's no place like HOME! and she thought about how out of place a less than curvy butt would look in the home with the swimming pool and resolved to go to the Med Spas right away where they had that new $INMD equipment! LONG ALL.
  • debeers: $RH, - After you've congratulated yourself on scooping up your dreamhouse for an incredibly low rate,dontcha think you owe it to yourself to make it look spectacular? of course you do, and $RH will be able to let you do it for free (if you got in at 211.........where it was a good time to get in) ...But that was then and this is now and people who have great respect for taste and somewhat less for comparison shopping, because they are at least multi-millionnaires, will continiue to reward this company in my opinion.LONG
  • mradams0621: @debeers $RH $SILK May I please congratulate myself for following you on $SILK as well? Working well. Many thanks.
  • Richlion1: @debeers $RH I'm in with a small position to start. Stop under the 50ma. I was looking at this earlier. Your persuasion help.
  • gwenzee: @mradams0621 $RH $SILK I don't think Debeers follows SILK. I do. You might want to look at my posts for the past month on this stock.
  • mopick: @debeers $RH, would be nice if it could sustain a move about $220. Really hasn't done anything so far this year.
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Stock Price $USD 248.26
Change 16.79%
Volume 3,483,530

Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc operates as a luxury brands in the home furnishings marketplace offering furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, decor, outdoor and garden, as well as baby & child products.

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