Strategy Session August 11th, 2016

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RH Weekly Chart

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  • bRobert: $RH reversal setup in motion. Look forentry with move >50d. Stop just below. $160 target
  • shoredriver: $RH....nice move so far today.....
  • traderbren: $RH - creeping above the 50d, looking to fill the gap above.
  • Greendayguy: $RH is comin' back hard!
  • bRobert: @Greendayguy $RH $50d curling up. Would not be surprised to see this one to pop > 50d. Did well on the short side. Will look at the next pullback/bounce to evaluate long position.
  • Greendayguy: @DAN #TRADING Thanks Dan, sounds like my day. i was up good on $TLRY, $RH, $CI and $GD at various times today, and they all tanked. But I had moved my stops several times so I got away with a small profit. I've been concentrating on capital preservation for the last month, and I haven't taken any big losses. I seem to be doing more day trading to control losses. Do you recommend that when one has a decent profit during the day to just sell? I've been moving my stop up, and eventually I do get stopped out, and my profit is about 60% of what it was if I would have just sold. Seems like a lot of work for small $, and I always feel bad about not having the profits that I could have. What do you think? Thanks in advance.
  • alwayslearning: $RH anyone? I had an alert from Dan's videos at 150....anyone else have that?
  • Reif99: @alwayslearning $RH Can't see much to do there.
  • traderbren: $RH - awoke from the dead. NP but for those that bottom fished today.....well done.
  • shoredriver: @traderbren $RH sure was.....likely going higher
  • bRobert: @shoredriver $RH Short finally stopped out . after very nice run. Will follow for reenter
  • DAN: @alwayslearning $RH Oversold bounce, but the stock is broken. I don't think there's an edge to be had here.
  • shoredriver: @bRobert $RH Never had much consistent success on shorting stocks, much better at long side so that is what I stick with......
  • rachel: ...
    $SRPT – woodman mentioned. Looks very much like $RH looked. Stop below 50 day MA.
    $BILI – forum stock this morning. I would wait and watch for o
    $CHEF – doesn’t trade much, but was difficult to buy today. Do NOT start a n ...
  • bRobert: @shoredriver $RH SMART. Trade what you know and do best. Not my usual trade. Usually long. This was a protective put that morphed into a bigger trade
  • bRobert: $RH still short via puts. Stops raised. Looking for $120 bounce. Not sure how far. $100 target still in play from double top
  • Wykeman: $RH trying to bounce PM
  • Wykeman: $RH..
  • bRobert: $RH upside down phase 2. Still short
  • bRobert: $RH added to short via puts from above. Very green trade. . Double top target $100.
  • bsafriet: @champ $OLLI #Good-Work #Crystal-Ball No crystal ball here - unless it’s the collective wisdom of all those that post to the Forum - yourself included. I’ve had jury duty, excused now after serving my time. Maybe I should sign-on for another tour? My only casualty was $RH which I stubbornly held over E/R even though it sold off the day of E/R. I just didn’t have the time to figure it out and stayed with my trade plan which blew up in my face! Out at end of week, and watching for a 2% reversal before considering re-entering. Been awhile since I made a mistake like that! All the best!
  • champ: @bsafriet $OLLI $RH #Good-Work #Crystal-Ball --- Same to you....and keep posting those targets, when you first see them....I will check out the news feed....and then get back to you.....Off to the GYM, for now.
  • Henry: $RH doing the bouncy kitty thing
  • shoredriver: @Henry $RH yep.......
  • bRobert: $RH weak bounce Be careful. $100 h&s top target still alive. Easier trades on the long side
  • bRobert: $RH Short working VERY well Measured move target $100 We'll see how close we come. I started this trade with a partial long call spread position and a protective+ put. and have added. As I posted earlier, today's bounce was anemic and set up a secondary entry/add with a sell stop just above today's high. The protective put has been a huge winner. I usually don't leave home without it on earning's day (along with reduced long exposure)
  • bRobert: $RH . short via puts. Not even a bounce yet. Will add on failed bounce.
  • shoredriver: $RH....looking for the keys for the truck......
  • traderbren: @shoredriver $RH - LOL....when you do, back it up. ;-)
  • etmagic: has $RH seen the bottom? thoughts please
  • DAN: @etmagic $RH Yes, I think it has. IT's broken and there is a lot of overhead resistance. But I think today's low of $122 is a significant low.
  • bRobert: @etmagic $RH I'm not 100% convinced .yet . I'm still short with puts, partial position left. WEEKLY Double top M pattern has a projected measured move to the $100 area. If the stock has a failed bounce and trades below the $130 area, that long term target is still in play. It has not been killed off yet. I think you can trade it with a stop if you like . (not my trade). I would look to a number of very good stocks/charts with the wind at their back. Easier sailing. tan trying to tack upwind
  • Wykeman: $RH 40% short..this should be interesting.
  • Reif99: I can only LOL. I bought $RH this morning for the bounce, put my stop below the low of the first hour ... got stopped out at the low of the day so far, and $RH is up over a buck from there ...
  • bRobert: $RH DOUBLE top M target is $108 . Protective put 1/2 position advanced to full. Trailing stops raised on previous and added. position in case this changes its mind.. Would like to see a failed bounce to add.
  • shoredriver: @bRobert $RH You might be right , but I don't see 108 in the cards....If it appears I will reback-up the old truck......
  • bRobert: @shoredriver $RH I don't assume any pattern will complete, but that is the measured move target. I have a profitable put position. If it gets there, great.
  • alwayslearning: @Dan....would you say $RH a good buy here?
  • bRobert: $RH WEEKLY showed the double top potential. It was a good short with a stop just above the June high ($165.1 works), when it failed to rise aboe it. M double top. A breakdown from here has a measured move to $100 area. I expect a bounce . A failed bounce under a now downward curling 50d, sets up a nice SHORT add/entry with a stop above the 50d. Long puts
  • shoredriver: $RH...reports after the bell.... options project 14% move.....likely will hold position over.... little squirmy however.....
  • bRobert: @shoredriver $RH Use some corn starch in your shorts.
  • Reif99: @shoredriver $RH I've got some BuCS but they are almost maxed out anyway (SEP 130/140), I let them go this morning. The premium on the puts is good, I might take a small BuPS or iron condor way out of the money. But probably not.
  • Reif99: $RH getting pummeled today, report after the close
  • bRobert: @Reif99 $RH I always told my kids, It's not how you start that's most important. It's how you finish. Took larger partial profits off the table. Protective Put spread. and short calls . (collar) . LONG TERM bullish. No edge tonight
  • DAN: $RH -- reminder...Restoration Hardware reports earnings after the bell.
  • bRobert: $RH . Buyers stole shares from shake out. Taking it higher. Hedged into earnings.
  • bRobert: @DAN $RH Understood . I've been in this name from the 80's. Profits along the way. This trade has been rolling house money for a while. I was hedged . Took partial profits on puts and bought back partial short calls.
  • bRobert: $RH . nh in AH . Tomorrow may be another day, but I remain long term bullish in the name and the complex. eg $W . $AAN $WSM . I took partial profits on my hedges today on the exaggerated move down. I will make further adjustments tomorrow based on the price action. eg I may convert a bear put spread into a bull put spread.
  • shoredriver: @bRobert $RH $W $AAN $WSM $RH..... Tried the cornstarch, cranked some Nina Simone....maybe its time to fire up the Vitamix with some daiquiri action......thinking about adding in A.M.....
  • Henry: $RH pass the scopalamine ear patches
  • rachel: ...
    2. $RH – the dangers of holding over earnings. Move on.
    3. $ROKU – choppy...but this is a good holding stock. $65 is ATH. Just hold it through the swings.
    4. $ETSY – new closing high. Eclipsed the jump/dump move from August.
    5. ...
  • rachel: ...
    $RH - Alert $161.75
    $LLL – squeezing. Alert at $210 AND $215
    $RTN – Wait for breakout above 200-day MA before even considering!
    $GRMN -- flag. Careful b/c this is extended. Only for active trades. Can fall to $64 or even $62 and still ...
  • DAN: $RH -- do you recall last night's Strategy Session where I described my consideration of buying RH, and then deciding not to? Look at what's happening today. Even RH ultimately runs higher and buying yesterday would have been a very profitable trade, it wasn't the time to buy. As noted, next Thursday is when the company reports earnings. And buying yesterday would have given me a very small window of time before I'd have to either sell, or choose to hold over earnings. If the stock didn't move higher, I'd be stuck in a bad trade. This is the type of stuff you need to remember. You'll be reinforcing good habits. Good habits don't just come from taking the right action. They also come from declining to take the wrong action. There is a difference.
  • debeers: $RH-Interesting to me is that Goldman conference is scheduled on 9/6. So its a coin flip as to whether this will be a breakout the champagne or a" 'splain yourself" Q.
    Goldman has had an outperform on the stock which reports 9/4.
    LONG FORM ...
  • Henry: @debeers $RH it might be forming the handle of the cup. I defer to your judgement on how the rich and famous spend their money. A $160 covered call yields 15% if you get called away. Options imply a 25 point move, so if you are wrong, it's going to hurt
  • CraigReynolds: @DAN $RH From your yesterday wisdom piece before market open, I started the note book. Then watched the video last night with additional wisdom in trading. I'm a student willing to change and finally the teacher. Resisted 4 trades I would have made recorded yesterday and 1 I did make. The 1 I did is up today, the 4 I did not are down, and by today's stock marks, I saved $165 plus the trade costs reviewing @11 AM. Why does this make me fell so good? The trade working was after a phase 2 pull back thanks to bRobert in his post pointing it out. Love the forum and traders. Who says an old dog can't be retrained. Will take a little more time but learning.
  • DAN: @CraigReynolds $RH Craig, that is AWESOME. Good for you. And isn't it helpful when you just track how much money you saved by NOT doing something? The commissions add up. And they are easy to forget about. Same with just a flat trade. Sometimes ...
  • bRobert: $W $RH Both working and going much higher.v $RH $185 $W $145+
  • sierramp: @bRobert $W $RH shorts on $RH 13 days to cover, 43% of float short, wow.
  • bRobert: @sierramp $W $RH Kerosene on a bonfire
  • bRobert: $RH this should take off as it clears $165 area and enters blue sky territory. This will happen sooner than later $190+ target
  • nestorsch1:
  • bRobert: @nestorsch1 $RH You can stream amazon on ROKU . Not sure what the big deal is.
  • rachel: ...
    o $RH – might break out. Saved -- $15 bucks in commissions.
    o $DOCU – might break out. Saved $15 bucks.
    o $AMZN – booked profits...maybe I got out too soon. Saved...more than $15 bucks.
    • Bond buddy says, “The way you r ...
  • bRobert: $RH $W . Flags . Dips nibbled at $W target $140 $RH $180+
  • bRobert: $RH $W . pin action with $WSM .
  • bsafriet: $RH. Broke out yesterday from a C&H, BP 153.48, continues to move today, at R1. Added to position yesterday.
  • spmeyers: @bRobert $RH $W $WSM $W is tempting but gotta follow my rules on breakouts and wait for pullback; I have been in $RH for a while though
  • bRobert: $RH Beautiful high base. $180 target
  • alwayslearning: $RH working very nice @dan thank you
  • DAN: @alwayslearning $RH Yep. Glad to see it moving well.
  • bRobert: @DAN $RH thanks Dan, just for being there.
  • DAN: @bRobert $RH Always here, my friend.
  • bRobert: @DAN $RH We've met several times in the distant past. You told a story about your days working on the Three's Company set and a dressing room "Oh My "
  • DAN: @bRobert $RH LOL. Yeah, that story isn't for widespread distribution. ;-) LOL.
  • bRobert: @traderbren $WSM Small position due to earnings. Great technical set up. High short interest. Niche retail. What's not to love. With bullish action in $RH $W not such a surprise.
  • rachel: ...
    $RH – still working.
    $LOW – No. This should be sold. More risk of lower prices than higher prices.
    $CTRL – working out. Target is $40. Alert $40
    $ALGN – ALERT $370.
    $NVDA – big shakeout on earnings. Now likely to br ...
  • bRobert: $W . Watching for move >$125.5 . Target $140+ . Long . $RH . flag . High targets
  • bRobert: $RH Daily high base Watching for trigger. WEEKLY c&h $180 target
  • bRobert: $RH short term flag/handle trigger
  • bsafriet: @bRobert $RH Txs for getting back to me (again) and resolving my confusion. I was viewing the chart on my phone using the ETrade app, weekly/1 year chart. My next option was the monthly/5 year chart (nothing in between). It hit me last night the the numbers in your post were for the measured move in an extended multi-year pattern. Before making it upstairs to verify on my desktop, I conked out in my recliner, and didn't wake-up until our dogs started nuzzling my arm and licking my hand which is their I have to go out and time to feed me signal. Amazing how well trained I am. Didn't have the opportunity to get back to the chart until a few minutes ago when I also saw your new post. My confusion is all cleared up now. Thanks again and hope you have a great weekend.
  • bRobert: $RH . Flag/Trigger watch
  • bsafriet: $RH Has $RH formed a cup with low handle, BP $153.48? Is this a tradable pattern?
  • bRobert: @bsafriet $RH There is a weekly c&h . 100 - 25 + 100 = . $175. Triggered awhile ago. For short term purposes. you can take an entry on a flag trigger off the daily chart
  • bsafriet: @bRobert $RH Thanks for responding @bRobert, but I must admit that you have me totally confused. I don’t see the $175 price level in play as a buy point anywhere on any time frame. Approximately what date are you looking at? Are we looking at the same stock? I was looking at the 6 mo daily, but the 3 mo daily captures the formation as well. Pattern starts with the gap up on June 12, days high of 164.49, close of 155.00. Is this the start of the flag you are referring to? I see a well formed cup pattern ending with a handle that started Aug 14. I just don’t recall a cup with low handle as one of William O’Neil’s technical patterns/chart formations - that was my question. The pattern shows yup well on a 1 year weekly chart as well, but without a handle. Best wishes!
  • bRobert: @bsafriet $RH The c&h . triggered on the WEEKLY .( 2016 . - 2018 ). in June with move >100. Bottom of cup . = . $25 . Again this already triggered. You can draw a high base cup on the daily . The flag is the handle. A move > flag/handle is a trigger in this time frame. I think the short answer to your original question is YES.
  • bRobert: $RH . flag
  • bRobert: $RH . flag trigger target $160+ . Long from below.
  • rachel: ...
    $RH – still going
    $INSP – IPO for sleep apnea. Doubled since May IPO.
    $NTES – still waiting. Will say the same thing...above today’s close of $208.21 would be an entry...but it’s impossible for me to predict exactly wha ...
  • bRobert: $RH . Breakout continuation
  • bRobert: $RH . $175 target move from Monthly/weekly c&h . Long
  • bRobert: $RH 38% short 8d to cover
  • bRobert: $RH . HOD . $150 target 1 close
  • bRobert: @Motorman $EHTH did you go shopping at $RH this weekend? It always triggers the stock. You're my insider info in this name. $150 target 1 made. Trailing raised up a bit. Long term $175
  • bRobert: $RH . $152.50 / .$160 NEXT TARGETS. Adding on pb/bounces
  • Motorman: @bRobert $EHTH $RH Sold near 103 never reloaded, now hard to buy.
  • mopick: @bRobert $RH , love to participate here but looks like I may have missed the boat as far as entries are concerned.What do you think?
  • spmeyers: @mopick $RH volume up today; I think it's buyable
  • bRobert: @mopick $RH Look for a pullback/bounce. Set stop just below the low on the pullback day prior to the green candle.
  • bRobert: @Motorman $EHTH $RH I was referring to furniture purchases.
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Stock Price $USD 130.62
Change 0.35%
Volume 575,650

Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc operates as a luxury brands in the home furnishings marketplace offering furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, decor, outdoor and garden, as well as baby & child products.

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