MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI)

Strategy Session May 6th, 2013

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Strategy Session
May 6th, 2013
   00:34
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  • scottto_2: #InsideBarList - My OCD kicked in hard on this one - Thanks Sir @Aragorn - $AAL $AAOI $AAPL $ABC $ABT $ABUS $ACAD $ADI $ADS $AEM $AES $AFL $AGCO $AGIO $AIG $AKAM $AKTX $ALE $ALGT $AMCX $AMN $AMP $AMT $AMZN $AN $ANET $ANGI $ANTM $AON $APA $APD $APRN $ ...
  • peppercorn: @Aragorn thanks for these #InsideMonths to consider and track for FEB 2018 - $ADXS $AGCO $AGX $ALNY $ALRM $APT $ATAI $AVAV $BCOV $BLUE $BMRN $CALA $CGNX $CLX $CRTO $DBA $DBD $EFOI $EQT $EYES $GBTC $GLUU $GNC $HQY $IBP $INVE $JJC $KMG $KSU $LAKE $LL $MBI $MDC $MEI $MMC $NTES $OAS $ONCE $ONVO $PAY $PCG $PRTA $PTLA $QRVO $SAIC $SDRL $SFUN $SNAP $SPWR $SWKS $T $TELL $TGI $TRIL $TROV $TROX $USCR $WATT $XOMA $XONE
  • steve71: $RDN I like Radian, rising off the 50 dma. Earnings 1/26 were good. The stock had a little run, followed by profit taking on no news. PPS is a double since July. The chart looks better than rival $MBI. Radian does mortgage insurance and servicing.
  • stevef214: @steve71 $RDN $MBI I look at $RDN also this morning. It cam up on a uptrend and oversold screen. I had this stock years ago and remember the yld being much higher. It does look like a low risk entry point though.
  • rsharples2016: $MBI Finding stocks doesn't seem that easy at the moment..but liking the steady up trend of this one...easy to define stop point as well....
  • Forexpro: ...
    Preview - Tuesday is the new deadline for an agreement on Iran's nuclear ambitions; Wednesday offer the FOMC minutes. Chair Yellen speasks before the City Club of Cleveland on Friday.

    Follow-Up - "Puerto Rico: Still Dangerous". Mentions ...
  • janner0814: From @ginny: Early premarket gappers: Gapping up: $CALI 38.8%, $WIN 12%, $SSRI 11.1%, $VALE 3.5%, $GRPN 3.2%, $SDRL 2.6%, $RIO 2.4%, $CBK 2.4%, $SFUN 2%, $MNST 1.7%, $VOD 1.3%, $GSK 1.1%, $NGG 1%, $BP 0.9%, $CSCO 0.9%, $SYT 0.8% Gapping down: $LACO -49.5%, $FXCM -12.6%, $NBG -9.5%, $FTR -7.7%, $GFI -4.9%, $CHK -4.6%, $TNK -4.3%, $CRM -3%, $MGIC -1.9%, $STO -1.8%, $UN -1.6%, $SAN -1.4%, $QGEN -1.4%, $ERIC -1.1%, $TOT -1.1%, $BBRY -1.1% Notable earnings after Monday's close $AMBC, $APEI, $ARCW, $ARNA, $ASEI, $ATHX, $BDE, $CALL, $CHMI, $CLNE, $CYTX, $DEPO, $DRYS, $DTSI, $EAC, $ELON, $FF, $FMC, $FMI, $FTEK, $FXEN, $GBDC, $GTY, $HALO, $HI, $IPAR, $IPXL, $JUNO, $LPSN, $MBI, $MCC, $MDR, $MNTX, $MODN, $MR, $MTZ, $MVNR, $OME, $OMER, $ONTY, $OPK, $ORIG, $PAAS, $PEIX, $PINC, $PVA, $RAX, $REN, $SCLN, $SF, $SFXE, $TCRD, $TEP, $TRQ, $TTEC, $UNXL, $VRTU, $XON, $YY, $ZGNX thanks ginny!
  • moneyHoHo: $MBI moving
  • moneyHoHo: $MBI Anyone trading it?
  • bigbartabs: $MBI could be on the move. News at 6.
  • Tim S: Notable earnings after Monday's close AMBC, $ASNA, $AUQ, $BDE, $DXPE, $GWRE, $MBI, $MCP, $MDR, $MR, $NUVA, $PDLI, $SNHY, $URS, VIPS
  • Tim S: Notable earnings after Tuesday's close $BWC, $CDXS, $DIOD, $GNMK, $HMA, $MBI, $MDVN, $MWE, $NQ, $PBPB, $PEGA, $RLD, $SINA, $SUPN, $WX, YRCW
  • Tim S: Notable earnings after Wednesday's close $AGU, $ARRS, $ARRY, $ASIA, $AWK, $BIOL, $BIOS, $BKD, $BPZ, $BWC, $CECO, $CLR, $CODI, $CTL, $CXO, $CXW, $DEPO, $DK, $DMD, $DRYS, $DVR, $DXCM, $EDMC, $EGLE, $ENS, $ETE, $ETP, $EXP, $FIO, $FTEK, $FTK, $FTR, $GMCR, $GNMK, $GRPN, $GTY, $HALO, $HNSN, $IO, $JACK, $JCOM, $LLNW, $MBI, $MDLZ, $MKL, $MNTX, $MRIN, $MWE, $NGVC, $NRP, $NVTL, OILT, $OSUR, $PKT, $PODD, $POWR, $PPO, $PRU, $PRXL, $PVA, $RBCN, RGP, $RIG, $RLD, $RST, $RWT, $SCTY, $SGI, $SN, $SSRI, $STEC, $SXL, $SZYM, $TCAP, $TNGO, $TSLA, $TTEK, $TWTC, $UHAL, $WGL, $WR, WTI
  • geotheo: $MBI - I was in this stock, but closed it out for small profit when the Detroit news hit. Why take chances. Watching now. I like the turn around story. I'm thinking of these insurance guys like I do the banks. A year from now I'll be happy.
  • Tricia: Earnings Today: before Thursday's open: $BAM, $BT, $KSS,MPW, $MT, $SNE, $WIN after Thursday's close: $AGO, $BID, $CA,CIM, $DAR, $DRYS, $ESRX, $JWN, $LBTYA, $MBI, $MCP, $MDR, $NUAN
  • jlsmith7441: Jaws of Life setups from the @Russell 1000: $GRMN, $HII, $MBI, NVLS, $ORI, VRTX. This indicator can only be plotted on Worden Bros. software. It is a plot of time segmented volume and a rate of change of time segmented volume. The roc should be half ...
  • eltuito: does anybody follow $MBI (MBIA)? Interesting action even during the down days. Possibly the mother of all short squeezes setting up...just tossing out something to look at.
  • tnt: $MBI consolidating under the 50 day ema and looks ready to attempt breakout
  • tnt: $MBI coiled to pop here. Looks like she wants to run on a breakout above the 50 day ema
  • southern: $MBI someone mentioned $MTG this is why the GSE's are doing well.

    Piper Jaffray positive following S&P bond rating methodology update Reports related to S&P bond rating lifted mortgage names yesterday afternoon. (AGO, $MBI, $MTG, $RDN, PMI, ...
  • jververis: ...
    New 52 week lows include: $ACW, $ADM, $ADVS, $AEIS, $AF, $AFAM, $AFL, $AGII, $AGO, $AIG, $AKAM, $AKS, $ALL, $ALNY, $ALR, $AMCC, $AMED, $AMKR, $AMSC, $ANAD, $ANR, $ANW, $AOL, $ARAY, $ARC, $ARI, $ARRY, $ART, $ASEI, $ASIA, $ATHX, ATPG, $AUO, $AUXL, $AV ...
  • southern: ...
    This obviously makes me think $JPM will have to settle with the monoline insurers, particularly MBI. $BAC and $MBI reached an agreement today to settle but the companies remain split on how much BOFA will have to pay to resolve the dispute. I sold $ ...
  • tnt: $MBI president William Fallon recently filed form 4 bought 20,000 shares Thurs on open market. Last time $MBI Fallon bought stock was Aug25 , the stock ran from $9 to $13 in 2 months
  • cmac: ABK PMI $MBI I hope that everyone got out of this trade last week, as was discussed in the forum....today ABK announced that it is missing an interest payment and is headed into bankruptcy. This will pressure PMI and $MBI today....MBI the healthiest of the bunch, but probably the best house in a lousy neighborhood.
  • Miki: $MBI - my best result of a short #squeeze play for the last 10days ~12% up 6% today taking off a third pos.
  • jasper: PMI, $MBI - @pqranchjon - I think we chatted about these two yesterday. Check out $MBI today
  • HumanGeorge: PMI RDN $MBI MTG ABK @pqranchjon, You are not alone in watching PMI...I have been watching PMI too but am a little more drawn to RDN. Why are all these mortgage insurers popping so much today? Does anyone have news or a theory? Thanks in advance
  • HumanGeorge: PMI RDN $MBI MTG ABK

    @Dan & SMM Community,

    It was nice to get some color from @Dan this evening on the effect that this foreclosure scandal might have on the banks and also on the mortgage insurers. The more I research this issue, the more I th ...
  • jasper: PMI, $MBI - Old news, but check out the Jan. 12.50 calls open interest in MBI. Last week somebody put on a ton of these @ 53 cents. Something is in the wind with these insurers.
  • jasper: PMI, $MBI - @Pqranchjon - Total speculation on my part but some entity is betting that $MBI is gonna be worth at least the $12.50 strike plus their 53 cent investment at the time of January expiration for MBI. They've invested millions in a spec that could expire worthless in 2 months. Just sayin'
  • PorchDog: Money Machine Pattern - These charts look promising. Some are pretty extended. Sorry for any duplicates. I believe these are the best looking charts: $RBS CHS $HLX OC $MENT and the rest: $VAL $MBI $DELL $NYX $AMKR ATPG (own this one) $GTE $TRN $CIEN $JBLU $MAS $CROX TRW
  • taylor: 13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day EMA : NYSE after yesterday's action Goldman Sachs Group Inc ( $GS ) Texas Indus ( $TXI ) $CVS CAREMARK CORPORATION COM ( $CVS ) Wells Fargo ( $WFC ) Sunoco Inc ( $SUN ) Hartford Finl Svcs Gp ( $HIG ) Toll Brothers ( $TOL ) Bank Of America Corp ( $BAC ) General Electric ( $GE ) $USG Corp ( $USG ) Lennar Corp ( $LEN ) Keycorp ( $KEY ) Mbia Inc ( $MBI ) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc Cl A ( $HOV )
  • maddenmg: ...
    $MBI Mbia Inc ( )
    $HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc Cl A ( )



  • M&M: $RDN, $MTG, PMI, $MBI, $AGO - As a follow on to @Dan's post regarding #financials and his video on the homies, take a look at these various home and bond insurers left for dead. I have been trading all those listed above since December and am currently long $RDN, $AGO & PMI. Interesting charts (definable risk/reward) with big short positions. My feeling is they will play catch up if homebuilders and financial's continue to rally. Good Luck to all-M&M
  • claudiohbpeg: $MTG -nobody is watching to this development .. overall sector seems in a sort of limbo with some good upside potential $RDN,MTG,PMI,FNF,$MBI,ORI,ABK and a as far I can notice there is also a very high short ratio supporting some good moves. Really interested on any take on this.
  • edmondtm: @Guett & Suzie, $MBI has formed a pattern similar to "Unique Three Mountain Top" candlestick formation which signals a reversal. Except the body of the candlestick on 9/29 should be shorter. Be careful. http://books.google.com/books?id=EIyMGZQtUqUC&pg=PA124&lpg=PA124&dq=unique+three+mountain+top+candlestick&source=bl&ots=RbSllnhV7A&sig=pOcjF6X75vp0Qwr2Mkpe5ofC9oI&hl=en&ei=fivESvaJDYPgtgOc5qigCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=unique%20three%20mountain%20top%20candlestick&f=false
  • Guett: $MBI I think it is in a Short #squeeze,30% float,Big bull flag,started 6days ago,$8 is of course resistance, whenit breaks-look out,but still early
  • Suzie: Goodnight Gang, See you cool kids in Vegas. Futures down slightly. Im sleeping with my positions and have stops set underneath major relevant moving averages just in case...I will miss the open and don't want to get caught with my pants down. Holding $CBG, $ANV, PCX, $MBI, OREX. Will be popping in with little updates :)
  • Guett: $FLEX Consolidating around $7, BB's are extended, give it a few days. $MBI setting up a Big bull flag, large short interest. $ZIXI consolidating
  • Guett: $MBI AND $SANM looking good
  • Suzie: ...
    I am holding $CBG, $NSM, $MBI and $AGEN in my portfolio and I did add to them on Friday because I felt it was opportunity. I am not usually one to trade on Friday's. I am stalking a number of other stocks and re-accumulating gold. Little adds to g ...
  • jng369: ...
    Another sector that I am not sure if someone notices are Russian stocks. $MTL, $VIP, $MBI all had almost 10% move. I missed it yesterday even though they are on my watchlist.

    $PAY still moving up slowly.
  • hts45241: ...
    Notably, today's move lower is being led by the stocks that have shown the greatest momentum over the past week, namely the lower quality #financials. We've highlighted the strong recent rallies/squeezes in low-quality financial stocks such as $AIG, ...
  • phxpeh: $MBI - mini-starter position...anybody trading it?
  • phxpeh: $XLF - $s flowing to the #financials, added to $FITB (big vol last 5 minutes on Friday) and $C, added $MBI, popping big...LNC looking strong too..
  • phxpeh: $FITB, $LNC, $MBI - all doing nicely on this tough tape...
  • dennis: $CHU news- China Unicom's first half profit down 42.1 percent but its still a premarket gainer Premarket gainers: $SVA +19%. $OVTI +15%. $ARUN +14%. $CIT +12%. JCG +8%. $AIG +8%. $TIF +7%. $MRVL +7%. ABK +7%. $MBI +5%. PMI +5%. $ZQK +5%. $DELL +5%. $CHU +4%. $C +4%.
  • dunsek: MBI- great earnings and up another 17% in the premarket. I cut back my position to 20% ahead of earnings which means I left money on the table, but that doesn't bother me in the slightest. As the man says, it's about risk management and making money, not about calling tops and bottoms and swinging for the fences. I'll watch the first 15 mins to get a feel for what the stock is going to do and will bail or stay accordingly. Good trading to all. Here's hoping for a major positive surprise on the jobless claims :) EDIT- out of the rest of my $MBI @ 6.88. Not saying it's topped out and I'll continue to watch it, but that gave me a 50% gain on my remaining position, which is hard to let go.
  • dunsek: EK, $MBI two big movers today. Thanks go out to @Dan once more, for his reminders to keep stocks you get out of on your radar screen and to not be afraid to get back in.
  • dunsek: Thanks, @JimMac. Between $KIM, EK, the regional banks and $MBI, it almost seemed like I knew what I was doing today lol. I'm sure Mr. Market will remind me that I'm a moron tomorrow or the next day though :)
  • dunsek: ...
    I'm still long an $RMBS bull call spread, long $NWL, $BAC, $MBI, $XL and, believe it or not, long EK again, and I think that'll hold me over the weekend.

    Good trading to all!
  • aliabassi1: GUYS these bond insurers are monsters... i haven't seen any conversation about these stocks from anybody besides me... $MBI came out last night at $3 gain per share for earnings when it was expected make a loss this sector has shifted ... ABK, PMI, $RDN, $MBI
  • hts45241: Ideas for Friday - Stocks to watch from @Dan's recent video (if the bottom is truly in) - I added many positions (and stayed small on Wednesday) and most are still in range, with a few down: $AMGN, $CELG, $UTHR (all down), and BUCY , $AAPL (up but only barely). These are still viable candidates if @Dan was right. Also added my own speculative favorites as well: Home builder $BZH at 7.12; $MBI at 10.25; WB at 9.46. These have worked out much better, but I was lucky the market recovered today. I know hope is not a stategy, but here's hoping the KFR in the S&P holds and that this was the washout low that we have been waiting for. Just my 2 cents
  • hts45241: Noticed big spreads in the #options of $MBI and $FITB today. It was a great day to be a put writer if you had the guts!
  • Suzie: Trading higher: $HMY +5%, $TXN +4.3% (mid-quarter update), $SNY +4.2% (names new CEO), $STM +3% (TXN sympathy), LMC +3%, $FDX +2.9% (guidance), AXA +2.5%, $LOGI +2.4% (buyback), RIMM +2.2% (launches flip phone). Trading lower: LEH -5.6% (earnings, cuts #dividend), $DAL -4.6% (WSJ column), $TSN -3.3% (secondary), CAL -2.1% (WSJ column), $AUY -2.1%, $FRO -2%, UAUA -1.8% (WSJ column). Lower in sympathy with LEH: $WM -6%, ABK -5.8%, $MBI -3.4%, MER -3%, $BAC -2.5% (Keefe Bruyette downgrade), $C -2.3%, WB -1.7%, $GS -1.6%....streetaccount
  • theturkeybone: [ABK] Today 02:20pm Ambac Financial Group, Inc S&P cuts ABK, $MBI financial strength ratings to $AA from AAA; on watch negative- ABK fianncial group ratings cut to A from A-, $MBI cut to AA- --tradethenews.com
  • Gabe: Can you say short #squeeze? As they say, never short a dull market. EXM, $OSTK, $DRYS, $MBI, all ramping today. I am very cautious with this rally, protecting profits, and not adding any long exposure at this point. In fact, I'm waiting for the right short entries. Long $OSTK, DRYS.
  • DAN: @Bob, I'm not trying to be vague, but I am talking about the concept of avoiding chasing stocks that are so obviously overbought that the only thing to say about them is: "Well, I missed that trade." But here are some tickers that might demonstrate what I'm talking about: FRE, FNM, CFC, CTX, $PHM, $JPM, $MBI, $MS, $LEN, $HRB, $WM, $DHI, $CBG, $C, CC, $BAC, $GGP, LEH, $KBH, LIZ, $DRI, $KIM, and WB. That's a decent list of stocks that illustrate my point. OThers are $KEX, $BLK, $ISRG, $CNQR, $VRTX, $EBAY, $SHLD, $LVLT, $EXPD and $PCLN (though $PCLN does look compelling if it has more time to consolidate). Hope that helps.
  • mike: I think the mortgage bond insurance company ABK reports Monday and $MBI the following week. Ambac insured almost $520 billion in debt at the end of 2006. Moody's warning that it is considering lowering its ratings on the company, may limit ABK's to rasie more money. Although these insurance companies have already sold off on expectations of losses, if one of them goes bankrupt, it will send some shockwaves. Banks or other companies that hold these loans will need to take further right downs. With the markets oversold, this type of news (bankruptcy) could create some "short-term" capitulation.
  • cgendro1: @Gintice- @Morgan Stanley downgrading profit forecasts for $MBI and ABK. I would say DUH but at least they are doing it:>)There has been a 14 and 18% drop in those stocks. Also, there is news out that CFC "recreated" documents in a bankruptcy hearing in PA. There are now about 300+ other bankruptcies that are now in question re business practices at CFC. I keep a quote screen of various stocks effected by this housing meltdown..to say the obvious- what a disaster!! FWIW- can Congress get off its duff and start investigating something worth investigating!!! It seems to me there should be some handcuffs somewhere in this mess!
  • Ventura_Paul: January Earnings Calendar: In trying to keep occupied and not be tempted to trade this market, I killed some time compiling a list of companies reporting earnings this month. The list was discerned from stocks discussed in the SMM and various #CNBC shows. Keep in mind that the dates aren't definitive as some cos. will often delay the reporting date a day or two. Today: $BBBY 8: $KBH, $MOS 14: DNA, $LEN 17: $AMD, $AMTD 18: $SLB 21: $FCX, $JEC, WFR, $STJ 22: $AAPL, $BAC, $TXN 23: $COF, $EAT, $COH, $EBAY, $RYL, $LUV, $WDC 24: $BRCM, $ED, $ETFC, $LMT, $MSFT, JAVA, $POT 25: $CAT, $HOG 28: CTX, $CME, CFC, $ENR, $XOM, $HAL, $HES, $MCD, $PHM, $SNDK, SIRF, $TSO, $UPS, $VZ, TRCW 29: $EMC, $MUR, $OXY, $VLO, $X, $YHOO 30: $AMZN, $BHI, $BA, COS.IN (Can. Oil Sands), $MRK, $SBUX 31: $APA, $CVS, $GOOG, $HOLX, $ISRG, $ICE, $MA, $MBI, $RTN, $VRSN, $UA
  • Ventura_Paul: @Craigy The #financials you listed are not the ones to worry about in terms of going to 0. That would be the realm of CFC, $WM, $DSL, etc. The worry with banks like $WFC is that they are at 2x book and should be 1x. Many hedge fund managers are #shorting these and related stocks like $MBI and other bond insurers. Once they cut their dividends, then they'll hit bottom and provide an entry.
  • Ventura_Paul: ...
    I have been watching as many chart videos as I can and they are extremely educational and informative! So now I'm looking at the charts of my current holdings to try to decipher them. I'm not going to pretend that I understand EVERYTHING that is goi ...
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Stock Price $7.03
Change 6.84%
Volume 1,228,900

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance, as well as related reinsurance, advisory and portfolio services, for the public and structured finance markets, and asset management advisory services, on a global basis.

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