Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL)
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- Henry: $TOL New ATH
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debeers: THE IF/THEN TRADE- $TOL while iit is true that $TOL is the best homebuilder in terms of cash risk--it is also true that the parts of the market that have struggled will go up
in September when Powell cuts....Therfore IMO getting ahead of the game b ... - debeers: David-yup but the reason that i wanted these 2 is that with mine it doesn't matter who wins-----we ALL win when interest rates go down. And in case i have to face a market mini swoon, i want both of these small to add to the $TOL.
- marklesparkle: @debeers $TOL $COMP $RH $TJX You don't put a $5 saddle on a racehorse
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StockMarketMentor: ...
$TOL: Basis 147.67 Stop 125.57 (wide stop just below the 50-day moving average).
$DHI: Basis 191.38 Stop 166.95.
$LEN: Basis 184.59 Stop 165.62.
There are a few others that look enticing, but the ones above look the best to me. I wan ... - X802tp01: @StockMarketMentor $TOL $DHI $LEN I like the lighter happy go lucky Dan
- DAN: @X802tp01 $TOL $DHI $LEN I'm drunk. And I am always a happy drunk. (I'm kidding).
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scottrades: ...
Home Builders are also perking up again after a few days along the 8/21 EMAs. Watch $LEN $KBH $PHM $MHO and $TOL which has been mentioned a few times in the Trading Room. $NVDA is also firming up above the MAs again. $META is close to the highs, wat ... - bigbartabs: @scottrades $GLD $TLT $UUP $CP $TECK $GOLD $MGA $F $GM $SU $IMO $CNQ $IBIT $MSTR $LEN $KBH $PHM $MHO $TOL $NVDA $META $ANET $PLTR ... and there's few economic interruptions that turn out as severe as transportation disruptions. Take the LA Port fiasco that occurred... perfect example of how bad it can get in that sector.
- Hawaiianmaxx: @bigbartabs $GLD $TLT $UUP $CP $TECK $GOLD $MGA $F $GM $SU $IMO $CNQ $IBIT $MSTR $LEN $KBH $PHM $MHO $TOL $NVDA $META $ANET $PLTR I stared to plant vegetables in the yard for that reason. Hawaii only has about 3 days worth of food if matson or young brothers can't bring food here
- woodman: $TOL @debeers - nice job with this one.
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debeers: $AEM $ANF $BLDR $LLY $META $NVDA $RACE $TOL
$AEM -IMO the best one for gold
$ANF- HIgh End with controlled inventory and the Haddid collection for collegiates
$BLDR- Pros knows where the pros goes
$LLY- so many ways to win that the fat will be added ... -
DAN: @debeers $AEM $ANF $BLDR $LLY $META $NVDA $RACE $TOL Great post, @debeers. Nvidia has problems that any good business would love to have. Earnings should be interesting next week. $RACE -- I have been waiting for the pullback that has not come.
... - debeers: @DAN-Pared the list to $AEM $ANF $LLY $NVDA $RACE $TJX $TOL I will be looking to add 1 more.
- Henry: $TOL had the can't help its yesterday and bought some, for the lower interest rates.
- marklesparkle:
- debeers: $TOL-the real whipped cream on the $TOL sundae is this---if/when the stock goes down, $TOL is the only homebuilder to buy back its own shares. When $TOL buy backs its shares, i add to mine but that's just a fundie girl trick......................
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DavidK: @debeers $TOL real estate is territorial as you know . My
Message might mean nothing . Being a realtor / real estate investor / flipper let me tell you what’s up in my area of south Ga and panhandle of fl in HIGH end vac / 2’d beach ar ... - debeers: $TOL-Having read David and others---i need an entity that will sop up its own shares if the market goes south. i have no guarantee and no one else does either --- but here's what i do know- In the last 4 quarters it beat They can afford a buy down easier than most if they have to- very different thsn an individual selling his/her own Many wealthy will buy 2nd homes in low tax states like Florida or Tennessee where they supposedely spend 51% oif their time
- debeers: $TOL- Luxury home builder. LONG FORM-They beat both on top and bottom lines and will do eeven better when/if the Fed cuts which will be at the next meeting. Why? When interest rates go down, there is less need for a buy down and since $TOL buys down less, they will make even more. SHORT FORM; people with money have more money than folks with less money.
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StockMarketMentor: ...
Lots of earnings this week, including $TGT, $BURL, $TJX, and $ROST. After $WMT's big number last week, I'll be interested to see how these retailers make out. $CAVA also reports on Thursday, along with Intuit ($INTU). These are all stocks to moni ... - debeers: JUST 1 change- had to let $BA go. Do i think that it will ultimately get its act together? Yup. i just dont think i am going to live long enough $AEM $ANF- kepp through the earnings on the 28th. Why? Fran doesn't let you down. Not now/Not ever. $LLY this is just a setback not a trend. $RACE-still vroom vroom. When you cannot make as many as folks want.THAT IS THE DEFINITION OF A HIGH CLASS PROBLEM. $TOL- always makes it numbers and reports tomorrow. $TSLA- for now ok. Just make sure you relook before earnings. $WMT- when the folks in my neck of the woods shjop there, i take notice of that. Meanwhile the ee's get to buy their own stock.
- debeers: $TOL-amc tomorrow night.
- Crodmm: $PMH, $TOL New 52 wk highs. Blue skies. Long from below..
- debeers: $TOL- -LONG FORM:Who is the highest rated IBD Homebuilder aaaaaand who is the only homebuilder who, when the homebuilders were getting smoked, was the ONLY homebuilder who bought back astounding quantities of its own stock shares to take them off the market? Oh, that would be $TOL Evercore ISI Raises Toll Brothers Price Target to $180 From $177, Maintains Outperform Rating SHORT FORM: Never seek to ask for whom the bell Tolla it Tolls for thee!
- debeers: $RH- How the mighty have fallen---In July of 2021 RH was a 744.56 dollar stock.(YOWZA) Now it is about 293 and change. 2 things propelled me to amp up a position today: 1. Gary Friedman bought 10 million bucks worth already and i believe he'll add to this 2. Interest rates "should" go down in September So if interest rates go down, the folks salivating to buy one of the $TOL homes will buy and fill with $RH furniture. You don't throw dreck into a masterpiece or, better yet, they will buy one of the $RH mansions-- maybe in Aspen? So yup LONG $TOL- this magnificent compan y has been the best to capitalize on the uber wealthy and folks with money have more money than folks who don't. There is also a shot that Europe will recover as well and, hells bells, $RH already owns the land it wants
- joelsg1: @debeers $RH $TOL I shorted this one successfully a few $100 above because aIthough I liked their "Gallery" business model I hated their products, particularly their outdoor furniture which was made in China and poor quality.
- Motorman: @joelsg1 $RH $TOL NP, but have shopped the outlet long back. Vietnam manufacturing. Was tempted to get in after it hit the low from Last November, but lost track. Now a bit extended.
- marklesparkle: @debeers $RH $TOL You don't put a $5 saddle on a racehorse
- debeers: $AEM, $HD, $LLY, $LNTH, $RH-finally., $TOL , $ELF Thanks @DAN for the $AEM. Also--Friedman bought 10m worth of his own co stock. I tend to pay attention when majority owners buy OR sell.
- debeers: $AEM, $ELF, $GM, $HD, $LLY, $LNTH, $RH, $TOL, When interest is high these will die, when interest moves low--these should go. IMO
- scottrades: My notes: $SPY Sector Rotation $QQQ Sector Rotation $IWM Mentioned Tuesday $DXY The the 200 Day $TNX Close to breaking down $SMH At the 8EMA $XLF Close to the highs $XHB Great volume $URA Holding above the 50 $XBI Breaking out of a range $GLD Want to see it hold the gap $GDX Gap filled $ELF Mentioned in the forum $LEN Through the 50 on good volume $TOL Same $KBH Power off the 50 Day $HD Great volume $BLDR Bottom fish $CCJ Extended above the 50 $NXE Above the 50 Day $FANG Watch 209 $UBER Earnings July 30 $FTI just under resistance $SCHW Earnings next week $VNO Gap and go $AAON Close to a pivot $APPF Watch 257
- vitoB: $TOL $LEN $KBH...on the backs of TOL not holding the 120 and LEN gettin hit on earnings, previous quarter had a lot of days above 7% so fading $KBH earnings today
- Henry: $TOL Mentioned by our dear friend Debeers yesterday. I looked at the chart Do you ever realize you own a stock you thought you sold, or don't own a stock because you sold it? I am in the latter camp for $TOL I sold it on earnings? when it dropped below the 50 ema . It is just above the 50. Not yet for me
- debeers: $TOL-you don't hafta buy their houses but you should own their stock IMO. NEVER SEEK TO ASK FOR WHOM THE BELL $TOLs, it $TOLs for thee.LONG
- debeers: $ANF-Never on a list better than ALL the 0THERS in retail. UP OVER 125% year to date $AVGO $CRWD $JPM-the least offensive $LLY $MMM $NVDA $TOL- sells out of everything everywhere--almost as soon as it goes to market
- Henry: $TOL earnings look good to me. There is a land sale, which throws off the numbers but excluding that: $3.83 vs 2.85 ext
- debeers: after the call, I'll be sure to let you know where the strengths are and, if any, the weaknesses BEATS TOP AND BOTTOM. SURPRISES ---NOT REALLY ___ 25% of $TOL buyers are all cash buyers In housing it is where luxe lives.
- debeers: A straight A Report Card? Easy- $AAPL $AMGN- $AMZN $ANF-Its wedding season folks! The wedding shop is NEW add back in the daddy-$NVDA now above the 50 A stock that almost always graduates with honors is $TOL no matter if the market is up or down $HD-over Lowes as builders made parking at Home Depot impossible Have yourselves a weekend folks!
- debeers: $RH-YOUR IF/THEN TRADE -IF housing goes up (since $TOL doesn't miss), THEN- in my opinion, $RH recovers took it small but IMO the bottom is in. Overall what i noticed today is that the softening in employment is very good for yupscale stocks- For example-- you could buy downscale but in Cali weddings are up and the big spenders haven't slowed down one bit hence $ANF the chart tells what the fundies know.
- Henry: $TOL kicking myself or not adding a couple days ago..
- Ben2020: @Henry $TOL same here!
- debeers: $TOL-with all due respect, @Henry--IMO as good as $PHM was, IMO $TOL will do better when it reports because of total lack of financing problems here. You will not hear any excuses about folkslocked into their low rates because a lot of $TOL buyers don't finance at all.THEY PAY CASH
- debeers: $TOL.-While other builders might struggle, there is a boom for luxury housing. $TOL is the beneficiary of this and they deserve to be in my opinion because they were THE ONLY builder to buy back its shares when interest rates rose. You might think that what they did was stupid as stocks were falling. News to you---it wasn't because people with money yhave more money than people withoiut money and there are a lot of buyers who buy $TOL homes with cash.
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debeers: $TOL-
I don't know about you but I want to know who has my back:
We always say that stocks can be sold for many reasons but they are only purchased for 1:
An officer or board member thinks the stock will go up.
But there are also a myriad of inve ... - debeers: $ANF/$C/$DELL$FANG/$MMM/$MSFT/$MTDR/$NUE/$TOL-Diversification and IMO best of class. Waiting for $NVDA to go to 850ish then will rebuy.
- debeers: SOLD $ANF- when it violated th 8 day LONGS now- $C $COP, $DIS, $FANG, $NVDA, $TOL, $UTHR,$SMCI
- debeers: $TOL/$HD-not only did Home Sales spike up to 9.5% but guess which homes sold for over ask. Why you might ask-- PEOPLE WITH MONEY HAVE MORE MONEY THAN PEOPLE WITH NO MONEY.
- debeers: @champ $BLDR $BLD $HD $LOW $NAIL - Yup you are right on----- i like one in the contractor domain and IMO $HD or $BLDR fine here and one in the Homebuilding sector which shouild, IMO, be $TOL
- debeers: $TOL-Apparently Oppy and i are on the same page: Their target for $TOL is 157 up from 141. Looooong $TOL
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debeers: ...
1. it was close enough to the 312 that a brilliant chartie told me to look out for.
2.AAAAnd the volume was above average
3. AAAND the institutional support is 87.5 %
4. and housing is looking up (those $TOL< homes need furniture and it will no ... -
debeers: ...
$TOL-if you don't get why a very expensive home selling to yupscale buyers isn't like Pulte or even the well-managed Lennar---it is beyond my ability to help you.
pair it with $HD for those having the dough to hire a contractor for a remodel.
$ELF- ... - Lou: @debeers $VLO $CMG $ANF $TOL $HD $ELF $DKNG - what would you charge to manage my portfolio?
- debeers: $TOL-Why it is NOT Lennar. After the what i consider poor results from Lennar. I thought yu might like to know why $TOL isn't like Lennar, which is a good homebuilder just NOT $TOL. $TOL should be down today because of the fidget crew but it doesn't ...
- DavidK: $LEN up 45% on puts bought at close yesterday. Expire next Friday . If you listened to CEO interview it’s as expected , margins will suffer as selling prices coming down some . Will it affect Luxury builder $TOL? Maybe not maybe so depending on stock market conditions. If market corrects which I see coming sooner than later , rich pull back when they look at monthly stock statements .
- debeers: $LEN-@Cheezit. I cannot tell you if you should hold. I CAN tell you they beat 6 times in a row. My choice when cuts in interest seem far awsay is $TOL but How about this? Cash some.
- Cheezit: @debeers $LEN $TOL Yup seems like the play..
- debeers: $ANF/$GPS/$MMM/$PG/$TOL -better than Lennar dontcha think/$VLO-a refined kind of position--the best of the best refiners IMO $NVDA- still above the cutoff level and i think that next week will be a mind bender LONGS
- debeers: $BLDR/$$GPS/$META/$MMM/$$MSFT/$NVDA/$PG/$TOL/----Longs All.
- scottrades: My notes: $SPY Still in trend $QQQ Nice bounce off the 21 EMA $IWM Above the 8EMA $DXY No follow through $GLD Good volume into the close $GDX Bounce near the 8EMA $SMH In trend $XHB Holding the 8EMA $IBIT Wear a Seatbelt. $AMD Watch today’s low $NVDA Not done yet $SMCI Still in trend $ON Basing $META Support at the 21 EMA $ANET Support at the 50 Day $BLDR Support at the 50 Day $TOL IN trend $PHM Support at the 21 EMA $DHI Alert at 157.25 $TDG Flag $RCL Looks about to leave the port. Watch 130 $VLO close to a breakout spot $MSTR Wear a Seatbelt
- scottrades: Good Morning Team! Markets have lifted a bit off the Initial Jobless Claims numbers that just came out at expectations. We had the ECB say they are keeping rates steady but are likely to cut in June. Canada kept their rates the same, but also likely ...
- Lou: @debeers $ANF $BA $COST $WMT $DIS $FANG $MS $NVDA $TOL Thanks for the reminder! #slap #slap - Done
- debeers: @Lou $ANF $BA $COST $WMT $DIS $FANG $MS $NVDA $TOL #slap #slap Anything for you Lou!
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debeers: ...
$TOL- doesn't need a rate decrease for their 1mm%2B homes. Folks with money are NOT going to worry about this
Just my opinion--- and in my opinion if you are greedy slap yourself accross the face and tell yourself "STOP IT!"
- stairm01: @debeers $ANF $BA $COST $WMT $DIS $FANG $MS $NVDA $TOL ANF has earnings premarket tomorrow morning.
- ZMan2: @debeers $RACE is $TOL's twin$$
- vitoB: @stairm01 $ANF $BA $COST $WMT $DIS $FANG $MS $NVDA $TOL .........200 yolo calls...absolute joke tbc
- DavidK: @debeers $ANF $BA $COST $WMT $DIS $FANG $MS $NVDA $TOL $ANF - look at the 1 year then 5 year chart . Hockey stick . Their earnings and growth projections do not support this price . But it is what it is . Be careful . Carter worth said the same about a week ago when he examined the chart . As Ali use to say , it’s a white tawnado ( tornado )
- indigo1948: @DAN - Please look at $PLTR, $CL, $TOL, $ABBV & $SANM. Thank you.
- debeers: $TOL vs Taylor Morrison. Taylor Morrison had far better results when interest rates were lower. $TOL buyers could care less because they can afford whatever they want.. They build 'em folks buy them. Because they are so sought after , you will see almost weekly new communities they are opening.
- debeers: LONGS Pre-dumped Boeing Current Longs- $AMWD/$ANF/$DIS-only spec but rooting for Peltz/ $ELF/$META/$NVDA had a token and tripled it/ $TOL/$URI
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DAN: ...
$LEN -- the black sheep of the bunch, down nearly $4 bucks from our $155.75 entry (still kicking myself for not suggesting $TOL rather than Lennar). That's trading.
$META - Up 35.3% from the $360 entry on January 9th.
$PSN -- Up 26% from the 64.5 ... -
debeers: ...
$TOL-Rich folks don't give a sh-t what the interest rates are. If they want a house they buy the house and $TOL is the best builder and THE yupscale one - Henry: $TOL came within 1 cent of a new high
- debeers: $TOL-Oppenheimer goes to 141 on $TOL-Outperform. Like i said, "Never seek to ask for whom the bell $TOL s-- It $TOL s for thee!
- debeers: $TOL-@DAN- i don't get why $TOL isn't on your list. Here's why: It doesn't matter if interest rates don't go down. The majority of the buyers of $TOL are paying cash for a second home or a new home for their children. The homes are over 1 million and they have bought cheap lots ts in tax friendsly states or in extremely affluent neighborhoods in tax friendlier states. Also earnings were crushed by them and there is no stress going forward.
- DavidK: @debeers $TOL as long as the stock market doesn’t crash you are spot on . Being a real estate agent/ investor who USE to build and flip multi million dollar beach homes on Pan Handle of Fl , I have seen 100 million dollar people wiped out when markets tanked . I took a nice haircut myself . NOW , I just do small flips when I can find a bargain but it’s tough finding them .
- debeers: @DavidK $TOL -It performs well even when there is no interest cut. When the cut comes they will still outperform IMO
- DavidK: @debeers $TOL if cuts come it will perform even better . But , these high net worth individuals i use to work with use the stock market as their gauge to how freely they will spend on vacation homes and other expensive toys . When this current bubble burst , These buyer gets hurt and pull back . Not that it means anything , as Dan says watch the charts , but I emailed my personal money manger that handles big longer term money for me inquiring about some holdings they have and his outlook on markets. To summarize , markets can go higher but it is one of it not the most irrational run up he has ever seen in his career . He said , a big fall is way over due and he is fine just sitting in 5.3% fixed income .
- debeers: RATINGS UPDATES; Should be a Fun Day in the Forum! $FANG- Susquhanna 212 drom 195 $TOL-RBC to 122-top pick. Remember this homebuilder doesn't need a rate cut. Many buying these1mm and greater homes pay cash! AND NOW FOR THE STAR OF THE DAY BEFORE THE BIG CONFERENCE WHEN IT WILL RAMP HIGHER IMO $NVDA B of A to 925 Citibank to 820 JPM to 850 Cown to 900
- debeers: $TOL- Will $TOL close higher than 107.20? I have no idea. Happy selling this am for 107.00. Here's why-- as excellent as $TOL is, the mortgage rates have moved from 6.87% to 7.06% and so i was happy to take the 107. Now, the other thing forcing my hand is that the FED seems determined to crush the economy to prove it can control inflation.
- curtis: @debeers $TOL (looks like I will get a fill at 108.)
- bigreek42: $tol moving nicely am long
- debeers: $TOL-$TOL d ya! Beat top AND bottom lines. $FANG-beat top and bottom .didn Diamondback .Knew what it was doing in buying Endeavor. .
- debeers: $TOL-poised for a pop on earnings next week. Most folks who buy luxe either buy an additional dwelling so they can avoid high tax states or make enough so that their first home is a $TOL. Never seek to ask for whom the bell $TOL s. It tols for thee. squeeeezing for a pop. Did i mention they beat on all four of the last quarters? No? They beat on all four of the last quarters
- JosephM: @debeers $TOL I like the suggestion. Has a nice base into earnings 2/20. One thing that confuses me is it clearly has decent numbers with IBD, group 35, comp 92, EPS87, revision est revised upwards, only a C plus a/d but that's ok as you are suggesting the catalyst to be earnings. But when I look at Finviz, I see poor numbers revenue (-18%) and eps (-27%) q/q, red. Any idea why the disconnect?
- rnrdallas1939: @debeers $TOL Home in OR, no sales tax. Home in TX, no income tax. What a plan.
- bigreek42: $tol breakout looks pretty good
- woodman: Many #Homebuilders are drifting or have drifted into their 50d's and have responded or are responding favorably. See $KBH $DFH $TOL $CCS $GRBK $HOV $TPH $TMHC $PHM $LEN $DHI $NVR.
- natural: @woodman $KBH $DFH $TOL $CCS $GRBK $HOV $TPH $TMHC $PHM $LEN $DHI $NVR #Homebuilders You hit the $NAIL right on the head!
- woodman: @natural $KBH $DFH $TOL $CCS $GRBK $HOV $TPH $TMHC $PHM $LEN $DHI $NVR $NAIL #Homebuilders The basing into the 50d, provides a solid foundation for good structural support. ;-)
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debeers: $TOL
LONG FORM;
-How many stocks do you have that Have a
1 year return of 73.42%
3 year return of 92.5%
5 year return 196.3%
How do they do this?
Luxury lives. No one who buys a $TOL property worries about defaulting on their property
the mos ... - ZMan2: @ debeers $TOL Been trying to get in for the last month between $90-$95.
- debeers: @ZMan2 $TOL - i can empathize with you. Finally i had to make a choice of all the builders and if i were lucky enough to get a pull back, given their knack for sourcing out High net worth customers, i'd add. Here's a thought, go in small and since they have a stellar beat record on earnings, see how it goes from there.......
- chrisbman360: @debeers $TOL I've been watching $DHI but interested in any of the homebuilders. Curious why you bullish on $TOL over any of the others?
- debeers: @texgecko $LEN $MHK -I added to the $TOL with $LEN---only concern with $MHK is that the fibers have a high oil content and if oil goes up too far......
- bigreek42: $tol looks promising tho low volume
- Margi1983: $TOL. Squeezing just above the 50 ma. NP but might take a starter. Been resting since mid December
- billyzeke: @Margi1983 $TOL I bought a few shares yesterday just to better keep it on my radar.
- scottrades: $TOL $DHI $PHM Low volume but holding up ok.
| Stock Price | $157.59 |
| Change | 3.43% |
| Volume | 1,241,900 |
Toll Brothers, Inc. designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.
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Past Month
Leading Peers
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$25.46 32.64%
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$84.78 17.06%
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$102.10 13.70%
Past Month
Lagging Peers
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$163.53 -11.08%
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$88.69 -5.69%
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$129.76 -4.58%
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