How far from the tree is Apple (AAPL) gonna fall? (September 22, 2017)


I want to look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) today, here is why: We probably are not going to be looking at this thing for a while. Look at the last three days of volume. This is under distribution. Unless you have been under a rock you know that Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) released their recent iteration iPhone 8. I think about, maybe more now, but I think about 12 people bought it. There was another guy that was thinking about it so we might even be up to 15.

Basically, this has been about the most lukewarm reception I have seen since the last Blackberry. That is a problem for the company, certainly. But it is a problem for the stock. Because the iPhone 10, the big $1000.00 phone that everybody waiting for, I am kind of curious to see it, that is not going to be released for a while. It takes conviction, it takes not just investors that are interested in buying Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), it takes a lot of them. And it takes a lot of them to think, “This at 152.00, 153.00, this is a buying opportunity. I have got to grab me some Apple.” That is what it takes to push this stock up to new highs; to basically make it worth owning. And I don’t really see that happening.

I am bearish on the stock, but, nothing personal, it is just that you see how the stock has traded lower. If you just squint your eyes on this chart and look down at the volume, I am squinting my eyes right now and this is what I see: when I see a big green bar there, I see some red bars there. I think that is a green bar there, and I see a whole boatload of red bars here. Well, I was basically right.

That was then, this is now. So, we are seeing a lot of distribution here, institutional selling. The stock traded 50,000 shares a day. This isn’t Stock Market Mentor members deciding they want to sell their stock. This is big institutions liquidating, lightening up, “Oh we are reducing our allocation.” You are just not going to hear somebody, unless they are on financial television talking their book, but then that was Carl Icahn a couple years ago. By the way, he turned out to be right, didn’t he? Anyway, unless they are out there talking their book there is more selling pressure on this than buying pressure.

I think you want to stay away from this stock. There is no reason why it can’t at least come down to test 140.00. There are a lot of moving averages here, this is the 150 and then the 200. This is a stock that is under pressure and the biggest worry is, I just don’t know what the catalyst is that is going to be enough to push the stock higher. To create aggressive demand for the stock so that it will move higher. So, if you are an Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) bear I will tell you this, I don’t think that is going to work. If you are an Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) bull, I think you need to not be so bullish; sell your stock, wait. Trust me on this, you are not missing a great opportunity here. This is going to languish for a while.

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