Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX)

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  • MongosPawn: $ARDX Added tiny here. Long.
  • woodman: @MongosPawn $ARDX - I'm still waiting. I think we might get a shot to add at the 20 day. That's been a good add spot the last 2 times - 11/28-29 and 1/3-5.
  • dmurphy68: @woodman $ARDX Below avg volume too which makes me think it's not the institutions selling. Or at least not all that they have.
  • woodman: @dmurphy68 $ARDX I think the next earnings/updates call (estimated for end of the month) will get this moving decently higher. Especially if it reports (a) good Xphozah scripts/revs, (b) nephrologists are increasingly coming on board, (c) reimbursement is working well, & maybe a big one (d) the CEO tells more about what he teased during the Isbrela call that there's a new indication for tenapanor/Xphozah.
  • bhaden1: $HRTX is $HRTX the next $ARDX? I have been in this stock since much lower and have been monitoring before recommending to this team. Especially @Woodman who is so generous with his research in biotech. The last conference call was particularly strong with senior management reiterating that they are well capitalized for the future with no need to raise any further funds - read surprise dilution. The average 12 month price target is 5.17 and the stock just made a Golden Cross. They have four approved products and 2 are in commercialization now. Here is a link to their website: https://www.herontx.com/ I hope this contributes to this fantastic forum of investors/traders who I have learned and profited so much!
  • woodman: @bhaden1 $HRTX $ARDX - Thank you for sharing. I haven't followed this one, but will take a look.
  • woodman: $ARDX - two potential support areas I'm looking at: (1) the 8dEMA area (*currently* mid $8.30s) and (2) the 20dSMA/21dEMA area (*currently* ~7.15-7.30). Not predictions. Just potential support areas in this uptrend since moving out of a base/consolidation in late Nov/early Dec. I continue to think that its next updates/earnings conference call may be another catalyst, particularly if they give good guidance/updates for Xphozah sales/scripts and mention an additional indication for tenapanor/Xphozah which the CEO teased previously.
  • woodman: @bhaden1 $HRTX $ARDX - Re HRTX, first thing I see of interest is that it has a catalyst coming on 1/23/2024 (PDUFA) in the form of an FDA decision on its request for approval for an expansion of its label for Zynrelef (non-opioid local anesthetic for post-operative pain). Seems like approval would significantly expand use of the drug from what I quickly found. Additionally, it announced a partnership with CrossLink Life Sciences to Expand Promotional Effort for Zynrelef. I don't know enough to understand what the prospects are for approval (and for that matter really anything about the company, its products or the market for them), though because it's seeking approval of an expansion label rather than first approval of the label, *maybe* the risk is lessened. But I'm not informed enough to have a good sense of this.
  • bhaden1: @woodman $HRTX $ARDX Management is forecasting significant revenue growth for 2024 and accompanying profitability. I will definitely monitor their conference call coming most likely in March.
  • Onthemark: @bhaden1 $HRTX $ARDX Looks promising, took a starter. Thanks for sharing.
  • debeers: $AMD/$ARDX/$LLY/$MSFT/$NVDA/$PANW/$VLO-Longs all
  • kenb: $ARDX new upgrade. Wedbush analyst Laura Chico maintains Ardelyx (NASDAQ:ARDX) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $9 to $13. Ardelyx (ARDX) has an average buy rating and a price target range of $10.50 to $15, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - Funny to watch the analysts chase. Wedbush was at 3, then 6, then 7, then 9, now 13. Analysts, like traders who miss the boat, chase too.
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX and here I thought that Laura was part of team woodman. LOL
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX ;-)
  • MongosPawn: @kenb More details regarding Wedbush's upgrade of $ARDX from today's press release: Wedbush was bullish on the uptake of Ardelyx's irritable bowel syndrome medicine Ibsrela, noting that 2024 will be an important year for the drug maker to demonstrate its commercial capabilities. The drug is expected to rake in $140 million to $150 million in sales during the year, based on the management's estimates. Overall, the management expects Ibsrela to hit peak US revenue of over $1 billion, but Wedbush forecasts the drug to generate $658 million in sales by fiscal 2031. Ardelyx could see a $5 to $10 per share boost in valuation, provided Ibsrela's sales get closer to management's peak level, Wedbush said. The firm raised its price target on the company's stock to $13 from $9 and reiterated outperform rating.
  • woodman: @MongosPawn $ARDX - The company instantly went from trading with a $1.4 bil MC to a $1.9 bil MC the instant management issued a press release that it was raising its estimated peak annual sales of Isbrela from $500 mil to "more than $1 billion." Now, today, it's over $2.1 bil MC. Of course, it will need to stand-up this new estamate. But, Xphozah is where eyes are trained. Tea leaves tell me Xphozah's scripts at this young juncture are significantly outpacing Isbrela's launch when it was at the same juncture. That would be a helluva feat, because Isrbela's launch was and continues to be very good.
  • dmurphy68: @woodman #Great-Weekend Congrats Woodie. Well-earned with the work you've put in (and shared) on $ARDX.
  • woodman: $ARDX - pulling back after a two-day 50-plus% run. The 8dEMA is all the way down at 7.88 and the 20d 6.70. So, potentially, it could give a lot back in the short term. I'm not making any predictions (hell, I couldn't have predicted the 50% explosion), but just saying if you are trading this, beware.
  • Lou: Just primed the pump and took some $ARDX at 8.47
  • kenb: @Lou $ARDX was thinking of adding some on the pullback as well, but haven't pulled the trigger since that add will greatly increase my cost basis of a large position. Time will tell.
  • woodman: @Lou $ARDX - Thank you for your service.
  • Lou: @kenb $ARDX - still a believer. I pile on when I believe. Can't think of a better place to park cash, though I'm waaaay overfull. I've made some of my largest profits by piling on to high conviction name. This buy was at a significantly higher price than my average basis but it was an opportunity that I did not want to miss. Always happy to take one for the team.
  • Lou: @kenb $ARDX - I have a portfolio manager for a significant part of my wife's and my investments. I firmly believe in something I read somewhere - "Fortunes are built by concentration and preserved by diversification." My agreement with the portfolio manager is that they take care of the diversification while I concentrate on the concentration. That's why you won't see me posting about many equities - with my concentration I don't have that many names to follow.
  • woodman: @Lou $ARDX - Good stuff, Lou. The largest portion of my family's investments are in boring large cap index funds. I can't eff them up. That said, my $ARDX portion (spread among many accounts, including even kids' IRAs) has grown quite a bit and may catch up in a year or two.
  • dmurphy68: @Lou $ARDX Even if it pulls back further I think any buy at this or the recent levels will still appear prudent as the year progresses.
  • woodman: @dmurphy68 $ARDX - I'm picky with my adds now. I'm going to wait a little more and see if I can get it under the 5dEMA, maybe at the 8dEMA. If not, that's okay for me. My last buys were in the low $6s on 1/3, just one week ago - Crazy!
  • kenb: @woodman @Lou $ARDX From a technical view, I guess this was ripe for a pullback as it was above the upper 2 deviation bollinger band, looking at the chart. My only reservation is that it is very extended from any support levels and with a large position, and am very conservative on adds now. That being said, I am very bullish on the stock and haven't sold any yet, thinking we will all be very happy this year as script levels are bound to increase with MD's becoming aware of another treatment approach to IBS patients.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - I agree with all that, and would add that Xphozah scripts for high serum phosphorous in CKD patients is what's expected to drive price higher from here. Not sure when we will see the latest script counts, but I expect the next earnings/updates call to propel the stock higher, and just maybe we will hear about another indication for Xphzah (the CEO recently teased it).
  • mepcc1: @woodman $ARDX Yes - I am waiting to see how far this pullback will go before adding.
  • Onthemark: Also holding $ARDX and $SPRY, which are taking a little break today.
  • Francoise: @woodman $ARDX
    I’ve gather some info regarding ARDELIX which may be interesting for you.
    This Pharma is a relatively small promising endeavour with 2 products already FDA approved and a small pipeline including two innovative compounds still in ...
  • debeers: $ARDX-Citi goes to 14 from 9.
  • Henry: @debeers $ARDX Why isn't it going up 10% today?😮
  • Francoise: please, @woodman @scott, with $ardx climbing so much where would you put your stops?
  • woodman: @Henry $ARDX - LOL!
  • woodman: @Francoise $ardx - Hi Francoise. I'm a bad person to ask that question because I'm so bullish on ARDX and have a long term view and plan for it, which includes staying long in 2024 (at least) unless some kind of unexpected terrible news develops. Tha ...
  • joelsg1: @woodman $ardx Congrats on the 9-bagger, and the thoughtful post. Perhaps the toughest but high quality trim/sale decisions involve appreciating stocks where we have high conviction of further success. Over decades of experience, my biggest mistakes occur in these situations where I'm highly confident but proven wrong, at least temporarily. The answer for me is trailing and staggered stops, and taking at least something off to fund pullback adds. Might not apply here and of course your results may vary.
  • woodman: @joelsg1 $ardx - Thanks Joel. I appreciate your post and wise advice about trimming to raise capital for the next pullback. Even a small trim might be wise for me, and I have debated this with my intermal self as well as a friend with whom I discuss this stock frequently. Even a small 10% trim could be a wise move. I do think we could get yet another positive surprise from management when they have their quarterly call. The CEO alluded to another indication for Xphozah during the KOL (Key Opinion Leader) call on Isbrela this week. If that's the case, this could pop higher again. I'm speculating with this, admittedly.
  • marklesparkle: @woodman Thanks guys and thanks wood for the $ARDX my options rocked
  • debeers: @Henry $ARDX -Woody completely in charge of this one, H and you CAN learn to be grateful, ya know?
  • debeers: @Henry $ARDX - i have enough to handle with 1 retailer and $CELH, $CRWD $HD $LEN $LLY and $META $MSFT $NVDA $PANW and @Woodman does ALL of Biotech!
  • Henry: @debeers $ARDX I was looking for a soft shoulder to cry on
  • Francoise: @woodman $ardx sir, i want to thank you very much for answering me. and for all the input you gave us so generously. i bought the stock on 11 december but…. i sold half yesterday!!! i m just a little anxious because i know the pharma can drop very quickly if some unexpected effect present itself on Phase III… i m watching it and will buy back surely… thanks again, have a good year.
  • debeers: Some ratings updates: $ANF-Telsey 105 from 85/ Jeffries 120 from 85 $ARDX- Raymond james goes to 15 from 12/ Jeffries goes to 11 from 8
  • Henry: $ARDX I guess it wouldn't have been too late to add at $7.5 yesterday. It's now $8.67
  • woodman: @wijimmy $EFTR - It's coming back a little, but this is an unexpected bummer for me in that I didn't think it would do this before coming data updates. I'm not sure if there is anything to draw from this timing in terms of whether this is any indication about coming data. I tend to think not, but I'm sure scratching my head. Luckily (and putting on my rose-colored glasses), my position is very small compared to $ARDX. Just about everything is.
  • woodman: @Henry $ARDX - Pretty crazy. Remember a couple weeks ago you mentioned the options and someone placing a bet that it would be $10 by July, and I said I could envision that happening. Well, I in no way though we'd be somewhat nearing that in January! Like I said, Crazy. By the way, RJF has upped its PT from $12 (announced on 12/18/23) to $15 following yesterday's company updates on Isbrela.
  • Onthemark: @Henry $ARDX I added today at 8.425 after selling some yesterday.
  • wijimmy: @woodman $EFTR $ARDX .......$EFTR.. Yes coming back.. I added on the move this morning.... 7x average volume all ready ... Never thought I would be trading in penny land again..... I do like and could be good news... {The reverse stock split is intended to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement of $1.00 per share of the Company's common stock for continued listing on The Nasdaq Capital Market.} & number of shares of common stock issued and outstanding will be reduced from approximately 74.9 million shares to approximately 3.0 million shares.
  • woodman: $ARDX - interesting tidbit here that may have gone unnoticed by many. The company's webcast presentation yesterday was entirely about Isbrela, except for a 30 second bit of the opening remarks by the CEO. At minute 4:30 of the webcast, he briefly discussed Xphozah and provided an interesting teaser. He said that they may have a new/additional indication for Xhpozah which management will discuss more when they have their next quarterly conference call. I wonder what it could be? Cardiovascular? Metaboloic processes? I don't know, but stay tuned. Here is the webcast: https://wsw.com/webcast/cc/ardx10/1478304
  • marklesparkle: @woodman $ARDX It also develops XPHOZAH, which is in Phase III clinical trial to control serum phosphorus in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)on dialysis, or
  • joelsg1: @woodman $ARDX RJ reiterates $15 target.
  • marklesparkle: @woodman $ARDX You knew that right woodman. You are talking about something new and different huh?
  • sierramp: @woodman $ARDX I am on the edge of my chair waiting to hear what this new development might be.
  • woodman: @marklesparkle $ARDX - that ship came and is back out to sea. Xphozah was approved last year for hyperphosphatemia and is out in the real world being prescribed and used for that indication. So, we are onto sales for Xphozah. It's expected to be a $1.5 or $2 billion indication (though the company is conservative, which I like). But what I am talking about is that, apparently, ARDX has found a new indication for using Xphozah beyond hyperphosphatemia. At least that's what it sounds like to me. (They do also have other molecules/drugs for other indications in the works, as I understand it, though at early stages.)
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX thanks for the link. Listening to the CFO, he also indicated that they would have enough cash on hand to support their activities and are not looking at raising cash through a secondary offering this year. That's pretty good news in my opinion. Giddy up.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - Fiscally responsible management. They've had the ATM but haven't tapped it.
  • Lou: $ARDX continues to rip higher!
  • kenb: @Lou $ARDX the gift that keeps on giving. Was tempting to sell a few shares and lock-in some profits, but decided to ride this for all that it wants to give. Also realizing that it can drop like a rock at a moments notice. So, watching very closely.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - I haven't sold any, but short term this trip above the top BB at 3 standard deviations isn't sustainable. That's just a fact.
  • Onthemark: Did well with $ARDX (Thanks again Woody), $MREO and $SHOP. Gave back a lot on $COIN.
  • sierramp: $ARDX has a press release on their website this morning providing update on growing commercial momentum and 2024 strategic priorities.
  • woodman: @sierramp $ARDX - Nice pre-open action, testing recent/2-plus year high area. Raymond James initiates Strong Buy and $12 PT. Conference call at 7pm (ET) to update Isbrela for IBS-C.
  • woodman: $ARDX trying for $7.
  • woodman: $ARDX - Clarification: That RJF PT of $12 was issued around 12/18, I believe, not today.
  • Henry: @woodman $ARDX Thanks for this one. I was very late to the party, I thought about adding more this am but it was up 14% on the day, now it's up 19%
  • woodman: @Henry $ARDX - Welcome aboard, Henry. Patience has been the name of the game with this one. Frankly, I am surprised by today's move. It seems exuberant in the very short term. I did add last week on the drift back to the 20d area, but I didn't think the Isbrela for IBS-C update would cause this move. Everyone is so focused on Xphozah for hyperphosphatemia. But reporting that Isbrela is expected to do $1 billion at peak is very good. The company was only about 1.4 bil last week, I think. Conservative estimates were around $500 mil for Isbrela. And yet, it's Xphoazah that is expected to be the homerun. And it seems there is good news about an additional inidications/assets (I still need to drill down on that). It's firing on all cylinders.
  • debeers: $ARDX-@Woodman-you came through again! Will be listening tonight. $CROX-shoes ugly-price pretty. $NVDA-betting against jensen huang? How's that working for ya?
  • woodman: @debeers $ARDX $CROX $NVDA - I've somehow managed to be a sold out bull on $NVDA. D'oh!
  • woodman: @debeers $ARDX $CROX $NVDA - $ARDX amazingly has completed filling the huge July 2021 gap today. I didn't expect this kind of move today.
  • debeers: @woodman $ARDX $CROX $NVDA -looking forward to the talk tonight
  • sierramp: @woodman $ARDX $CROX $NVDA Incredible move. I got in 2-6-23 after one of your posts and several times thereafter. You and @debeers are such an asset to SMM. Thank you both.
  • woodman: @sierramp $ARDX $CROX $NVDA - That is very kind of you. I'm truly happy that this has worked for you. Great job by you to make the buys and hold on. I'm having a hard time believing we'll hold today's/this week's gains (i.e. in the short term), but do believe we are in store for much more in 2024.
  • mepcc1: @woodman $ARDX - I bought in October at the $3.50'ish point - been following you on this one and adding on some of the dips - Can't thank you enought - holding on and putting a loose stop just below 20dma on small part of position. Thanks again!
  • woodman: @mepcc1 $ARDX - That October low area was a great buy! Congrats!
  • debeers: @sierramp $ARDX $CROX $NVDA -you are very kind. What i see is that Woody's stock charting is perfection and i invest where my homework agrees with the charts. Sort of a 1-2 punch. Thjis way, i can stay in on a bad day.
  • Lou: @woodman $ARDX - as always thanks for the great pick and your continuing updates to all of us who have followed you. Now well beyond my expectations and I'm still holding for more good things to come.
  • woodman: @Lou $ARDX - $8.00 Holla! Lou, I beleive you got on board pretty quickly and went in strong. It's paying off. Congrats!
  • Lou: @woodman $ARDX - yes. I still own every share and am ahead quite a bit by any standard. Ya da man!
  • camaro69: @woodman $ARDX $CROX $NVDA Thanks Woodman for all of your efforts in the forum. I would have never known of this company without your efforts!
  • Onthemark: @woodman $ARDX $CROX $NVDA Huge thanks to you for $ARDX! Been taking profits and adding on pullbacks. Still on board for higher prices.
  • sierramp: @debeers $ARDX $CROX $NVDA That makes a lot of sense. I work the same way but I'm sure not with your rigor.
  • golfmaniac: @woodman $ARDX Really appreciate your research and recommendation for this one! I’ve been in since 9/23 when it was ~$4.1. Biggest win for me in a few years! Thanks so much!
  • woodman: @golfmaniac $ARDX - Wonderful to hear. It must have tested your resolve on the hard move down over 3 days in Oct.
  • woodman: @Onthemark $ARDX $CROX $NVDA - Great management. The day after I sell a bunch to buy back at lower prices will be the day it announces its been acquired. ;-)
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX I sold all back in the 5,s bought some back today around 8 . Feels like chasing . Thinking day 2 tomorrow should be up of decent news is presented tonight
  • debeers: $AMZN-insinuating itself into sports and delivery king $ANF-I wanted to stay Fran Fran you da man---which would have been catchy except the mistress of supply management is a gal! $ARDX-How can we thank @Woodman enough for this one? $CROX- No ugly shoe blues on thois one. kids feet make it impractical to invest in pricey stuff for them. You look around and they need new ones. How many of the migrant surge is going to wear expensive shoes???Really? $CRWD- this one or $PANW should be in everyone's poprtfolio IMO $ELF- Leave this dishes on the shelf--be a tasty dish yourself! Economy up? Teens buy more. Economy down? We trade down. $LLY-best of class IMO $NVDA- So here we are, in the beginning of the year---Look over the past 1-3-5 years. Does it pay to vote against Jensen Huang? NO NO it doesn't
  • Lou: @woodman $ARDX $CROX $NVDA - how about you take a hit for the team, sell a little? Thanks for all of your good work on this sector!
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX - I had to miss the first part of this call that's going on right now. Who knows about tomorrow. Could go up some more or be a "sell the news." I need an update on what was said in the first 20 minutes.
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX - Apparently the company has not yet tapped the ATM. This fiscal responsibility is yet another indication of the quality of management.
  • Bs7518: @woodman $ARDX with the JPM healthcare conf next week would that be a catalyst to add today? Again thank you for all your research I follow it:)
  • woodman: @Bs7518 $ARDX Not JPM, but they are presenting an update on Isbrela on Monday outside of JPM. I don't know if that will be a significant catalyst. I'm not expecting it to be, but I reserve the right to be pleasantly surprised. :-) https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ardelyx-provide-company-update-ibsrelar-and-host-kol-discussion
  • Bs7518: @woodman $ARDX BIG THANKS
  • woodman: $ARDX 20d area was a good add spot last time it drifted back to it in Nov. I added on Wednesday. As posted earlier, update on Isbrela due on Monday amc.
  • Lou: @woodman $ARDX - 5% of the day's volume was on the close. I've been off-line most of the day, attending to personal errands. Enjoy the weekend all.
  • MongosPawn: $DAL $CAT $ARDX Last of my stops hit on $DAL and $CAT. Added a little $ARDX.
  • woodman: @MongosPawn $DAL $CAT $ARDX - ARDX at some potential/expected support areas - 23.6 Fib Ret, 20dSMA/21dEMA. All around the $5.80-5.90 area.
  • MongosPawn: @woodman $DAL $CAT $ARDX Correct. Support recently around 5.90 starting on 12/20. Also in bio's, $EFTR been strong recently including today. Added a bit a couple of weeks ago.
  • woodman: @MongosPawn $DAL $CAT $ARDX $EFTR - I agree re EFTR. It has 1Q catalysts - Maybe Feb/March.
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Stock Price $6.55
Change -2.38%
Volume 3,969,620

Ardelyx Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development & commercialization of non-systemic, small molecule therapeutics that work in the gastrointestinal tract to treat cardio-renal & metabolic diseases.

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