Webinar Recap: The 200 Week Held, the 200 Day Is Back, and the Bear Just Ended
Crypto Market Mentor Live Webinar: August 26, 2026
This week was our first Crypto Market Mentor Open House in a long time, with the doors open to Stock Market Mentor and Option Market Mentor members. Dan Fitzpatrick joined to explain why he wanted everyone in the room right now. Bitcoin had just put in its biggest weekly gain since March 2023, the ETFs flipped from net sellers to seven straight days of buying, and the Treasury started easing through the back door. The tape is choppy today, and that looks like normal consolidation after a massive move. Here are the major points, key takeaways, and action items from the session.
Why Dan Opened the Doors
Dan’s point was simple. A long consolidation is boring. People stop looking, forget why they own the asset, and then the thing they stopped watching is up 35% and they missed it. Bitcoin drifted sideways for months and never got to the $40K level where he said he would load up. Now it is moving, and he wanted the people who are not already crypto maniacs to see what is happening before they chase it at the top.
He also made the point about listening to the right people. Jim Cramer sold his Bitcoin after talking to the CEO of IBM about quantum computing. Dan’s quant, Andy, says that risk is real in theory but probably not in our lifetime. Wrong source, wrong answer. Dan and Jennifer own a decent stake in Bitcoin, and they are not hodlers. They are investors who think Bitcoin is a real asset, and Paul Krugman’s fax machine take on the internet did not age well.
Price changes sentiment, not the other way around. When the market goes down, nobody gets more bullish. Money flows in, price moves up, and then people feel good about it. That is why blow-off tops exist, and that is what we are trying to help members avoid. We want you in at the trend change, not at the highs. As Dan put it, you earn your patience by getting in early enough to have a profit to sit on.
The Open Ideas List
The trades we put on in July and were patient with through the consolidation are paying off now. ETHA is up nearly 30%, BSOL is up about 26%, IBIT is up nearly 20%, and the ideas we added last week, HOOD, NEAR, and ONDO, are all working. We are not sitting on any losers, and that was not an easy road. We understood the positive fundamentals under crypto when price was not reflecting them, took positions on both a technical and fundamental basis, added along the way, and now we are sitting pretty.
That list does not include the chatroom trades in Zcash, BitMine, and Strategy that members have been sharing in Telegram. One member, Michael, closed a leveraged Zcash trade for well over 300% in a week. Those kinds of gains are possible in crypto if you are positioned on sound fundamentals and know what you are doing. Thanks to Laura for tracking the list.
The Squeeze
The biggest single driver of the move was a massive short squeeze. Last week we told you to watch for a move above $67K, because a break of that level could squeeze shorts up to the highs. That is exactly what played out. Following the Treasury announcement, we had one of the largest short liquidation events in Bitcoin’s history, with more than $4.3B of shorts liquidated on the way up.
On the liquidation map, new long liquidations are starting to build around $77.6K and new shorts sit above at $81.3K. That is the fuel on both sides. As active investors, we love it when leverage builds up and gets flushed, because the flush lets us buy more of what we want and pay less for it. You sell when leverage is high and prices are screaming, and you buy when the leverage gets flushed out and prices are moving fast the other way.
The Big Picture
Bitcoin is trading near $78K, about 37% below the all-time high of $126K from October 2025. Fear & Greed is at 80, which is Extreme Greed. Two weeks ago we were printing new lows in the Fear zone. Price drives sentiment, and the biggest weekly move since 2023 sent the sentiment chart racing up right alongside it.
The 12-month outlook is bullish and the tape agrees. Expect volatility. Bitcoin rarely goes up in a straight line.
The structural thesis has not changed. Institutional flow dynamics and macro, not the halving, are the marginal price drivers this cycle. Government debt, deficits, and debasement are why you own Bitcoin over years. We introduced this in July when nobody else was talking about M2 hitting a new high and the national debt heading to $40 trillion. Both happened. The more the government goes into debt, the more reason to own scarce assets. That is not only Bitcoin. Gold, silver, and copper are working for the same reason, and I covered the metals in yesterday’s Stock Market Mentor video. Bitcoin is the scarce digital asset in that trade.
Bessent keeps saying they will grow their way out of the debt. In the meantime, the number keeps going up. That is why part of your portfolio should be a Bitcoin position you do not trade. You do not sell your house because the value went up. Treat your core Bitcoin the same way, and get cute around it with the rest.
The Flows Are Back
The Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.92B last week, their best week of 2026, then added $650M Monday and Tuesday. That is about $2.6B over seven straight sessions, with IBIT taking more than half. IBIT is the liquidity leader, and if you are not sure which Bitcoin ETF to buy, buy the most liquid one. Year to date the group is still net negative by about $2.6B. One more week like last week turns that positive. This is a turn, not a victory lap.
The ETH funds pulled in $697M last week, their best week since October, and ETH gained 30% on the week. Tom Lee pointed out that the last two 30% weeks, July 2021 and May 2025, each led to gains above 167%. Two data points is a pattern, not a promise. Stay open minded, because even half of that is a very good trade for an active investor.
Strategy (MSTR) sold about $2B of stock last week and bought zero Bitcoin for a second straight week. $136M went to STRC buybacks and roughly $1.6B into a cash pool they can point at Bitcoin or their own shares. STRC is the preferred that is built to hold between $99 and $101 and pay a high dividend. That peg broke, and it broke hard, and Strategy has been buying it back to par to keep institutional money in the product. There is no guarantee the peg holds. If Bitcoin sells off and institutions need cash, STRC is where they will sell first. Size it accordingly. The positive is that the mark on 840,447 BTC swung from a $9.5B loss to a $4.7B gain. Read the cash as dry powder, not as Saylor walking away. Respect the HODL.
BitMine (BMNR) bought 32,447 ETH last week to reach 5,847,611, or 4.8% of supply, and trackers flagged another 20,000 ETH leaving Kraken for them last night. Their average cost is about $3,359, so they are still underwater by roughly $5B. Fundstrat puts BMNR at an 80% correlation to ETH. Own the coin and rent the torque, and be careful with the leveraged versions like BMNU. Leverage is great in an uptrend and it crushes you in a chop.
Wall Street is on board. Standard Chartered says the Treasury pivot can carry Bitcoin toward $100K by year end. Bernstein says $150K by mid-2027 and $300K by 2029, citing debt and debasement. Tom Lee calls crypto the market leader since June 30, with ETH up 54% and BTC up 33%. Translation: the institutions bought the lows, and you are not late.
The Treasury Put
Instead of the Fed put, I am calling this the Treasury put. Last Wednesday, Treasury said they will at least double long bond buybacks to $4B per operation, starting September 9 and running through November 4. Thursday, Bessent said he is ready to go bigger. Monday, reports said they may fund it from the $950B Treasury General Account instead of new bills.
Is that QE? No, but it is closer than it was last week. QE is the Fed creating money to buy bonds. A buyback funded by new bills is a swap, and nothing gets created. A buyback funded by the TGA puts cash into the system with no new paper behind it. That is a net liquidity injection and soft yield curve control. Different route, same result. Bitcoin and crypto trade on liquidity. Tight liquidity means down or sideways. Loosening liquidity means up. That is what we just watched.
The bond market did not blink. The 10-year hit a 20-month high of 4.75%, then eased to 4.62% yesterday as oil slid. The 30-year is still above 5%, and debt crossed $40 trillion this week. Stan Druckenmiller, Bessent’s own mentor, wrote in the WSJ that Treasury is managing prices in a working market and putting off the only real fix, the primary deficit. Gold and Bitcoin rallied anyway. That is the debasement trade on one screen and a floor under hard assets. You want to own assets, and Bitcoin tends to outperform in that scenario.
PCE landed this morning. Core printed 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year, both on consensus, and that keeps September on hold. Headline ran hot at 0.2% and 3.7% against 3.6%, which is the oil pass-through. Hike odds sat near 40% into the print. Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday at 10am at Jackson Hole, his first keynote as Chair, 19 days before the September 16 decision.
My view is unchanged. Hawk now, dove later. Treasury is already easing through the back door, and the Fed follows in 2027 and 2028 when they hold rates below inflation. That is the multi-year Bitcoin case, and the market started pricing it last week.
The Headwinds
The long end: Treasury doubled buybacks and the 10-year still closed the week at 4.74%, the highest since Bessent took office. The 30-year is 5.25%. A buyback is a signal, and signals wear off. If yields make new highs into Jackson Hole, risk assets feel it first, and that includes stocks and Bitcoin.
Iran and Hormuz: The war moved from missiles to sanctions. Bessent’s economic D-Day press conference landed lighter than feared, and Brent broke to $86 on Iran-Oman transit-deal reports. Iran is still threatening to seize ships. Lower oil helps yields and helps Bitcoin. A tanker incident flips that in an hour.
The squeeze: Daily RSI hit 78 and exchange inflows are rising above $80K, which means sellers are showing up there. I flagged $80K as near-term resistance and $82K as the next level early this week. Fast money built this move and the flows have to keep showing up to hold it. A retest of $69K to $72K is normal, not a failure.
The vote count: CLARITY cloture needs seven Democrats and the ethics provision is still unresolved. Polymarket has the bill near 20% to become law this year. A failed vote on September 15 takes back some of what the White House meeting gave. The SEC can keep moving without CLARITY, but rules are not law, and a new administration can undo rules. That is why the bill matters.
Did the Bear Just End?
Bitcoin bounced off the 200 Week near $63K and ran 23% in a week, its biggest weekly gain since March 2023. It reclaimed the 200 Day near $69K on Thursday after 270 days below it. It printed $81K Tuesday, the first time above $80K in three months. ETH did 30% on the week. August is +28%, the best month since November 2024. This has been a long time coming.
The setup was right. Last week we said the whales were buying a weak tape and VanEck’s clock pointed to a September to November accumulation phase. It came early. Fear & Greed went from 39 to 74 in two weeks and the ETFs flipped from net sellers to seven straight days of buying. You buy in Fear and Extreme Fear, and you sell or take partial profits in Greed and Extreme Greed. The bottom was a process, and the process looks done.
The on-chain read confirms it. More than 20% of the supply came back into profit in a week, and a jump that size has only happened at the end of bears: April 2019, March 2020, January 2023. Realized profit hit $675M a day and short-term holder SOPR crossed back above 1.0, both firsts since the last bear ended. Price rose 20% while futures open interest fell 6% and spot volume rose 150%. That is spot demand, not leverage.
The other side: It started as a short squeeze and daily RSI hit 78. Profit taking is healthy until it swamps demand, and the ETFs are still net negative on the year. We want the flows to keep coming, not a two-week wonder. Galaxy’s $40K to $46K call is now the bear case, not the base case. A week of chop near $77K or a retest of $67K to $72K is normal here.
Our base case: The bear ended on the 200 Week and the 200 Day is now support. The bears’ last line is the 50 Week near $81K, which capped Tuesday’s push, with the May high at $82.4K just above. Nobody chases $81K. Buy the retest, not the breakout, with a stop below the 200 Day.
The Tailwinds Are Not Waiting for CLARITY
September 15: The Senate cloture vote is set for 2:15pm. It needs 60 votes, Republicans hold 53, so it needs seven Democrats. Trump put the exchanges and both regulators in one room last week to push it, and Brian Armstrong says it passes. Polymarket gives it about a 20% chance of being signed this year. One of them is wrong, and the vote settles it. If CLARITY passes, that is a bonus. The regulators already moved. The SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets, the CFTC’s lighter fund rules, and Treasury’s GENIUS Act stablecoin rules are all out for comment, and Chair Selig says the CFTC finishes with or without CLARITY.
September 9: The doubled buybacks start and run through November 4, possibly funded from the TGA. That is eight weeks of a buyer under the long end while the ETFs are buying Bitcoin. The unlock is macro, not crypto. Crypto has been fundamentally bullish the whole way down. The devs kept building. The macro just had not lined up to reward it while price sat under the 200 Day.
The product shelf keeps growing. Grayscale’s Zcash ETF, ZCSH, began trading on NYSE Arca Tuesday, the first spot ZEC product anywhere. Bitwise’s Solana ETF, BSOL, did $108M in a day, its biggest ever. Fidelity is adding staking to its ETH fund. Every new wrapper is a new pipe for institutional money, and it lets people who never want a Coinbase account own these assets.
BlackRock lowered the minimum for private in-kind creations on IBIT to $1 million and has now facilitated more than $5 billion in transactions from private wallets. If you own IBIT, you own Bitcoin, and above that threshold you can convert shares into Bitcoin in a private wallet. That is a big deal for anyone worried about custody.
The rails: Coinbase put tokenized stocks on Base with 24/7 trading. Franklin Templeton’s tokenized Treasury fund went live in Asia Tuesday. Solana’s real-world asset value passed $4B. X is adding native buy and sell buttons for crypto directly in the timeline.
Solana is tightening the screws. It cut its slot time from 400 to 350 milliseconds on August 21, the first cut since genesis. Three governance votes close Thursday, including doubling disinflation and a new fee burn. Fewer new tokens means more scarcity, and scarcity is the whole reason Bitcoin is $78K with 21 million coins.
Net: The plumbing got built during the bear. The flows just turned it on.
Positioning: Macro Just Opened the Gate
The range is done. BTC broke out of the $62.5K to $65.6K box, reclaimed the 200 Day near $69K, and printed $81K. The 200 Day flipped from resistance to support in one week. Things happen fast in crypto, and that is why timing it perfectly is close to impossible. Own a core allocation, then use the technicals to add or trim around it. You have to be in.
What it did is the tell. Bitcoin held through record long-end yields and a Korean circuit breaker. When the semis were gapping down with the KOSPI, Bitcoin did not make a new low. That is relative strength, and we flagged it to members before Treasury spoke. Then the ETFs turned on and it moved 23% in a week. Flows drive price. Watch the ETF flows in the Daily CMM Quick Hits email.
Watch ETH. It did 30% on the week, ETHA led the flows, and ETH/BTC broke a year-long downtrend. That is good for Ethereum and it is good for the alts. It needs a weekly close above $2,500 to $2,550, and it is sitting just under that this morning.
The alts: ZEC hit an eight-year high into Tuesday’s ZCSH listing. SOL jumped 8% ahead of Thursday’s votes and BSOL printed its biggest volume day ever. The alts should get their bid after BTC holds the retest.
Perspective: Bitcoin is still 37% below $126K, and the trend followers only came back because the trend confirmed above the 200 Day. Number go up is not a reason to FOMO in. Buy the retest, not the headline. Be an optimist, with a stop loss.
The Levels That Matter
Bitcoin
- LTH realized price: $49K
- 200 Day support: ~$69K
- Retest zone: $66K to $72K
- Next resistance: $80K to $82.4K
Ethereum
- LTH realized price: $2,000 to $2,500
- 200 Day support: ~$2,000
- Retest zone: $2,300 to $2,350
- Next resistance: ~$2,500, then $2,800
Chart Review
Bitcoin and IBIT: We allocated around the key moving averages inside the downtrend once Bitcoin got above the 50 Day and established a floor. Now I want consolidation. A pullback to the 8 Day, 21 Day, or 200 Day is healthy. $66K would be a full retest of the 50 Day. If Warsh is very hawkish, expect a sharper retrace, but that is not the base case. If you are long IBIT, the 200 Day is your line in the sand.
ETH and ETHA: Both are holding above the 200 Day and building a high flag after the trend change. It can go sideways for a month. As long as it holds the 200 Day, the trend is up. SPY got rejected at the 8 Day EMA again today while ETH held in. That is relative strength.
SOL and BSOL: SOL broke the descending trend line we had been watching, then the rocket hit on Wednesday. BSOL is holding its new 200 Day. Healthy consolidation, and there is nothing wrong with taking profits and re-buying the pullback bounce.
HYPE and BHYP: Trump mentioned Hyperliquid in his press conference and it hit a new all-time high. It is extended and wide and loose. Nothing to do unless it takes out $46.81 or pulls back to the 8 Day EMA. Watch BHYP for an entry.
ZEC and ZCSH: Zcash was above the 8, 21, and 50 Day before the news, and I flagged the relative strength on Monday. It went from $500 to a high near $888 in about a week. Zcash is Bitcoin’s framework, 21 million coins on a public ledger, with a shielded pool for privacy, and it is already quantum resistant. Earlier this year it went from $649 to $250 in two days, so size accordingly. Watch for a pullback to the moving averages or a new high before entering.
AAVE: This is my biggest position. I am in around $88, it is $123 now, and I added a little today. Fewer than 20 million tokens exist. Standard Chartered has a $3,500 target by 2030, and even if they are half right, that is a strong risk-reward from here. It is pulling back orderly on declining volume, and it does not have an ETF yet. We were ahead of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash ETFs. I think the same trade exists here.
TAO (Bittensor): This is where crypto and AI meet in an open-source way. Jason Calacanis is in it in size. Every time governments limit what closed AI models can do, open source wins. TAO has been near $600 before and the market cap is about $2.5B. A 10x from here is still a fraction of Solana’s $55B. Watch for it to reclaim the 200 Day. GTAO is the Grayscale trust that trades OTC if you want it in a stock account, and holding the token lets you stake and earn subnet exposure.
Crypto stocks: COIN is still under the 200 Day and not doing much. MSTR needs a short base to let the moving averages catch up, then take out $128. BMNR is showing relative strength, flat on a day MSTR is down 3%, with buyers stepping in on dips. PURR made a new all-time high and reports tomorrow. Hyperliquid buys back its own token with most of its profits, and if the government wants it onshored, that is bad for COIN and HOOD and good for HYPE. HOOD held the 50 Day on Friday and is working. ASST (Strive) is above all the key moving averages after a short squeeze and needs to consolidate before a new high. TSLA is still building a wedge I expect to break lower.
Miners: CIFR, WULF, and IREN are under all the key moving averages. HUT is trying to firm up, and we have had it on the list since April.
Q&A Highlights
Why is ETH doing better than BTC? Ethereum is further down the risk curve. From last August’s high, ETH fell 69% while BTC fell 53%. Alts go down more in a bear and up more in a bull, like small caps versus large caps. That is why Tom Lee bought the whole way down.
I sold my Bitcoin and missed the move. How do I get back in? Turn on the dollar-cost-averaging machine with daily buys during consolidation. If Bitcoin clears $82K, turn it off and put the rest to work. Low cost basis first, then size in on a trigger.
Why buy BMNR instead of ETHU? From Wednesday’s breakout ETHU is up 57% and BMNR is up 35%. The leveraged ETF wins in a raging uptrend, but you own a derivative with decay, not an asset. I prefer to own stock in a company that owns ETH when the trend is not yet confirmed. I own both, and I am bigger in BMNR. If you can watch the screen all day, the leveraged products work. Dan’s reminder: BMNU is a daily target ETF built for day trading.
Do I need a wallet? No. A Coinbase account is enough, and Coinbase Advanced gives you the order book, limits, and stops. The reason to bother is outperformance. Zcash is up more than 400% in a year and the ETF only listed yesterday. Dan’s take: for anyone his age who does not want to fiddle with it, Coinbase is the easy button.
IBIT or MSTR? Since August, MSTR is up 27% and IBIT is up 22%. From the high, MSTR is down 70% and IBIT is down 37%. MSTR is built to outperform in a bull and underperform in a bear. Wait for the trend to change before sizing into MSTR. BITX gives you 2x IBIT without the financial engineering overhang.
$25K, one pick? Keep it simple. Diversification can be a killer in crypto. Pick three to five ideas at most, let the one that keeps pulling you in take the allocation, and get pushed out of the one that keeps punishing you. In a raging bull, the alts outperform. When the market slows, raise cash or rotate back to Bitcoin, because 99% of alts underperform Bitcoin over the long run.
What about a 20% pullback? At this point, a 20% drop breaks the chart and puts ETH back under the 50 Day. I would not race to buy. I get aggressive on pullbacks once the uptrend is established and I have a cushion. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are the top three we cover every day in Quick Hits.
Can Coinbase be hacked? Yes, through you. Fake links, fake customer service numbers, fake bank calls. Use two-factor authentication and never give out your credentials. To move coins between exchanges, you never enter your seed phrase. Treat it like your bank PIN and keep it in a fireproof safe. Do a $5 test send first, then send the rest the same way.
Dan on Risk
Start with risk first. Know your R multiple, then trade. Manage risk with position size, not by waiting for a perfect percentage. Engineers make poor traders because there is an artistry to it, and trying to engineer a Van Gogh does not work. Information builds confidence, but the chart tells you whether to own it. The market is never wrong, because it gets to define the rules. Never let your knowledge get in the way of looking at the chart.
The Week Ahead
Today: PCE is in and the core number keeps September on hold. Q2 GDP held at 1.5%. Nvidia reports after the close with revenue expected near $92B. The AI trade has been under pressure for weeks, so this is its report card.
Thursday, August 27: Jackson Hole opens. The theme is financial innovation and payments, which is a stablecoin conversation in a central bank room. Jobless claims at 8:30am. PURR reports. Solana governance votes close.
Friday, August 28: Warsh speaks at 10am, his first keynote as Chair. Hawkish means he backs the three dissenters and yields go up. Dovish means he leans on his AI disinflation view. The dollar tells you which one you got.
September 9: Treasury buybacks begin. September 15: CLARITY cloture vote at 2:15pm, 60 votes needed. September 16: FOMC, with hike odds near 40% before PCE. You need a plan for a hold and a plan for a hike before the headline hits.
The setup: The PCE box is checked, and a calm Warsh gives the retest room to hold. A hawkish Warsh sends the long end higher and the retest deeper. Tom Lee calls this week a clearing event for stocks. Yields first, data second.
Key Takeaways
- The bear ended on the 200 Week near $63K, and the 200 Day near $69K flipped from resistance to support in one week.
- The move was a short squeeze first and spot demand second. $4.3B of shorts got liquidated, open interest fell 6%, and spot volume rose 150%.
- The Bitcoin ETFs had their best week of 2026 and seven straight days of inflows. They are still negative on the year, so this is a turn, not a victory lap.
- The Treasury put is real. Doubled buybacks from September 9, possibly funded from the TGA, is a net liquidity injection, and Bitcoin trades on liquidity.
- Hawk now, dove later. The Fed holds in September and follows Treasury in 2027 and 2028. That is the multi-year Bitcoin case.
- On-chain confirmed the turn. More than 20% of supply back in profit, SOPR above 1.0, and realized profit at $675M a day are all end-of-bear signals.
- ETH/BTC broke a year-long downtrend. Alts fall more in a bear and rise more in a bull, and the alt bid comes after Bitcoin holds the retest.
- The plumbing got built during the bear. New ETFs, in-kind creations at $1M, tokenized stocks and Treasuries, and native trading on X are all new pipes for institutional money.
- Nobody chases $81K. Buy the retest, not the breakout, with a stop below the 200 Day.
Action Items
- Refresh BTC, ETH, Fear & Greed, and the ETF flow numbers before you act. Quick Hits has them daily.
- Do not chase above $80K. Wait for the retest into $66K to $72K, ideally at a key moving average, and keep your stop below the 200 Day near $69K.
- If you are long IBIT, the 200 Day is your line in the sand. If you are long ETHA, watch for a weekly close above $2,500 to $2,550.
- Own a core Bitcoin position you do not trade, and use the technicals to add or trim around it.
- If you missed the move, dollar-cost average daily during consolidation and size in if Bitcoin clears $82K.
- Take partial profits in Extreme Greed and look to re-buy the pullback bounce. That is how active investors use leverage flushes.
- Treat leveraged products like BMNU, ETHU, and BITX as uptrend-only tools. They work in a trend and crush you in a chop.
- Size STRC and any pegged product for the chance the peg breaks again.
- Watch ZEC and ZCSH for a pullback to the moving averages or a new high. Size small, because it trades wild.
- Keep AAVE, TAO, and HYPE on the watch list. AAVE has no ETF yet, TAO needs to reclaim the 200 Day, and HYPE needs a new high above $46.81 or a pullback to the 8 Day EMA.
- Have a plan for a hold and a plan for a hike before Warsh speaks Friday and before the September 16 FOMC.
- Mark September 9, 15, and 16 on the calendar. Treasury, CLARITY, and the Fed decide the fall.
- Never give out your seed phrase, use two-factor authentication, and do a small test send before moving coins between exchanges.
- Pick three to five ideas, not twenty. Let the winners pull you in and let the losers push you out.
Be an optimist, with a stop loss.