When Mother Earth dumps so much snow…it’s time to go skiing. Check this high base on Vail Resorts (MTN). (January 13, 2017)
MTN
Vail Resorts ( NYSE:MTN ). You know the kind of dumpage we are getting this winter as we try to struggle with climate change versus global warming. We just don’t know what is happening here. But when I see so much dumpage in the winter time I am thinking about going skiing. And so I am looking at Vail Resorts ( NYSE:MTN ); I don’t own a position, that will probably change on Tuesday. They don’t report earnings until the middle of March and that will be plenty of time for them to be banking some money on this.
Now here is the deal: This is a company, it is not just Vail ( NYSE:MTN ), it is twelve resorts in Colorado, Utah, California (home of the Sierra cement), Minnesota, and even Australia. So they are specific as far as the business that they are in, but they are not tied to one weather pattern. So I like that; their sales or revenues are fairly solid. Their earnings, as you can probably imagine, over the last few years haven’t really been awesome, but this is a GREAT pattern here. This is a really, really solid pattern. Support right around here. Resistance right around here. The 50-day moving average has been has been a REALLY good reliable level of support, which is where this thing hit on Friday.
So here is the way you can really trade it: First of all, if this falls below 160.00 I think you don’t want to be in this name. So you can buy this stock right now and risk about 3.5 percent and that is not a bad risk. So you want to be taking the stock right around here. By the way, if it happened to pull back here and hold, that would be a better entry, but we don’t get to choose. So if you are able to take some stock here then you watch it, and as the stock comes up to test 170.00, if it continues to move above 170.00, and look, this has a multi-month base here, 4-5 month base, that sets the stage for higher prices for the next leg up.
Look at how it based here and then ultimately kept moving, so this is a really solid base. If it starts moving above 170.00 that is when you want to ADD to your position and just ride this thing higher. Just think of it as a ride on a ski lift up to the top of the hill. It stopped because a bunch on knuckleheads fell of with their snowboards; we are waiting for this thing to get started again.
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